A brief history of exponential trends

[bitrider]

I really appreciate this thread.

It gives a mult-years perspective on what's going on -

It seems like in the case of the BitCoin it's a war between the enthusiasm of new technology and the speculative mania that can burn it.

We know that many times when a new technology is introduced - we have this wave of early adopters that are so enthusiastic about it that they take the price up exponentially. Then after it cools down, it starts rising again slowly till there's public acceptance.

It seems like in the case of BitCoin we are witnessing not only one exponent followed by public acceptance, but more like waves and waves of public acceptance, each time going into exponential Mania and then dropping again and then drawing a bigger circle of acceptance and then mania again and then drop and so on.

So it makes sense that if (IF) BitCoin makes it - then we shall witness every 2 years an Exponential Mania, followed by despair.

If so then we are right now at the Bear following the Mania - that should last many months till the price shall become undervalued again and the chartists will have to adjust their exponent...

(Specifically right now we are in an unsustained post Mania suckers rally)

Yes, one needs lots of patience, to sit on the sidelines for several months ready with cash to get a good entry price - but then it seems like almost the sky is the limit...

GotBitCoins.

i also like this thread, because it is closer to how I think about this, than most of bull/bear non-sense. And your post is excellent.

Your take seems very reasonable to me. This is what I expect as well, and why I am playing the long  (patient) game with bitcoin. Series of explosive exponential bulls (over the next couple of years) as more people start to see the potential and usefulness of bitcoin, and new services come on line,and adoption gets more ubiquitous. Each likely followed by crashes and consolidations. Some of these crashes may be followed by extended lows below recent support (meaning many month recoveries), and others may hit support and consolidate there before going higher. All depending - as you said - on who is in the game at the time and the fundamental view at the moment.

This time? We shall see. I'll be ready with cash if we consolidate much lower and will hang on tight if it keeps moving up. Ready for anything...or so I think

[piramida]

Updating for Jan 1 2014. Looks like we went ballistic this year, and travelled way off our 4x yearly growth target. The absolute possible minimum for this crash is currently around $70, which does not seem realistic anymore. The next minimum, $280 of Jan 1st 2015, seems more realistic, but the pretty picture of exponential growth says $70, so I leave it here.



P.S. $1000 becomes an absolute minumum possible price at around November 2016.

[SuperHakka]

woot! maybe I get some for $100 after all. come on you exponential muthafcking function 

[piramida]

woot! maybe I get some for $100 after all. come on you exponential muthafcking function 

Would not count on it; last crash from 266 never hit anywhere close to the rock bottom of $30, so I doubt it would go below 300 this time too. Something much much worse than China has to happen for this; I would think the protocol has to be compromised for the double digits now.

[SuperHakka]

woot! maybe I get some for $100 after all. come on you exponential muthafcking function 

Would not count on it; last crash from 266 never hit anywhere close to the rock bottom of $30, so I doubt it would go below 300 this time too. Something much much worse than China has to happen for this; I would think the protocol has to be compromised for the double digits now.

don't be saying shit like that, ya jinxed it now 

[Wekkel]

From this perspective, it seems to make sense that BTC remains stuck at around $500 for a year.
Watch the daily chart: when - after a longer period of stable prizes - prize collapses suddenly, get in with all you are willing to lose. It has been the trigger of the next rally 2 times already.

The best virtue of a sniper is patience. A good trader should abide to the same.

[SuperHakka]

actually piramida, you given me a good idea for a game. let's think of all the possible scenarios that might cause double digits were it to happen. you came up with the first.

1. protocol compromise.
2. mt gox closes down after btc "robbery"

[piramida]

actually piramida, you given me a good idea for a game. let's think of all the possible scenarios that might cause double digits were it to happen. you came up with the first.

1. protocol compromise.
2. mt gox closes down after btc "robbery"

open a separate thread, this one is for exponential growth trend of bitcoin, some local external events are of no interest to the greater power of math.

[TERA]

Updating for Jan 1 2014. Looks like we went ballistic this year, and travelled way off our 4x yearly growth target. The absolute possible minimum for this crash is currently around $70, which does not seem realistic anymore. The next minimum, $280 of Jan 1st 2015, seems more realistic, but the pretty picture of exponential growth says $70, so I leave it here.



P.S. $1000 becomes an absolute minumum possible price at around November 2016.

This chart is actually pretty scary because it makes right now look just like 2011.

[piramida]

This chart is actually pretty scary because it makes right now look just like 2011.

then it will hit 2xx in about half a year, a possibility. or the rally could get re-ignited at any moment as it did earlier this year.

[SuperHakka]

open a separate thread, this one is for exponential growth trend of bitcoin, some local external events are of no interest to the greater power of math.

soz dude, but I can give a contribution to this thread. you prob seen this video already but just in case you haven't, I present to you the most interesting lecture on the exponential function given in layman's terms. i would rank at as one of the most scariest videos ever made if you watch it all the way thru:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vII-GxsrR2c

[sgbett]

I like this thread. I also like drawing arbitrary lines on charts so I'm throwing this in the mix.



I think the pirate incident created some false lows, so I've moved the line a bit from the original one EM posted.

Based on nothing more than a gut feeling that it seems a bit like 2011, as others have observed, I've replicated a rough projection of the angle of attack and descent, which just happens to be a right angle (well close enough that I can shoehorn one in... if you squint a bit heheh)

So plugging all of this into the patented sgbettojector, shown here as some nice blue dashed lines, gives the end of march, and a low of just under $200.

So convincing is my analysis, that I'll be ignoring it entirely, and holding tight. I can handle riding out an ~80% decline (again) as this will at least guarantee that I won't lock in losses by trading badly.

I'm really good at that (trading badly). Which is probably another reason why this chart needs serving with a good pinch of salt

[rebuilder]

I don't put much stock in chart extrapolation, but I'm curious: Isn't it odd to draw a trendline that the price is constantly above?

[sgbett]

I don't put much stock in chart extrapolation, but I'm curious: Isn't it odd to draw a trendline that the price is constantly above?

I think people are trying to establish a baseline price, that it will never go below.

[piramida]

I don't put much stock in chart extrapolation, but I'm curious: Isn't it odd to draw a trendline that the price is constantly above?

I think people are trying to establish a baseline price, that it will never go below.

Exactly, since bitcoin fluctuates wildly and noone can predict how high the speculation would drag it in each rally, I'm more interested in the baseline support price. This has quadrupled yearly since 2011.

sgbett, this seems also valid and the low of 200 makes more sense at this point.

[T.Stuart]

I don't put much stock in chart extrapolation, but I'm curious: Isn't it odd to draw a trendline that the price is constantly above?

I think people are trying to establish a baseline price, that it will never go below.

Exactly, since bitcoin fluctuates wildly and noone can predict how high the speculation would drag it in each rally, I'm more interested in the baseline support price. This has quadrupled yearly since 2011.

sgbett, this seems also valid and the low of 200 makes more sense at this point.

Without being able to prove it, I really feel like you are undershooting there. It's got to be between $400 and $500 in my opinion, unless of course America bans Bitcoin or something like that.

[ElectricMucus]

I have a hunch that the current exponential trend-line will be broken next year.

[T.Stuart]

I have a hunch that the current exponential trend-line will be broken next year.

Please excuse my ignorance if it is clear, but in which way and why?

[ElectricMucus]

I have a hunch that the current exponential trend-line will be broken next year.

Please excuse my ignorance if it is clear, but in which way and why?

Just a hunch. Has something to do with the failure to reach gold parity.

[piramida]

Without being able to prove it, I really feel like you are undershooting there. It's got to be between $400 and $500 in my opinion, unless of course America bans Bitcoin or something like that.

I tend to agree, but the mathematical possible low is 100-200 now. We went up too fast this year, deviated from the exponential growth... exponentially; only bitcoin can seriously overshoot exponential growth