Is anyone else betting on a breakdown from current levels?

[Templeton]

I still expect mtgox/BTC to hit between $50-$60 (probably double bottoming or hitting just above the previous lows).  Does anyone else think this is reasonable or are you all perma-bulls who think BTC is going to the MOoOOOOn tomorrow!? (That's a joke, but if you seriously think that we are in for a short term break out PLEASE give me some technicals).


Peace and Love

[Fuyuki_Wataru]

If you study the chart before it crashed from 266, you will notice that it daily crashes or rises with an average of 10.

Just sit and wait young warrior, sit and wait...

[cusdog]

On what basis do you make this assessment? It seems your 50-60 is just as arbitrary as the "moooon" crowd.

[Templeton]

On what basis do you make this assessment? It seems your 50-60 is just as arbitrary as the "moooon" crowd.

If you look at a 7 day chart, you'll see that the last short term downtrend met resistance in the 50-60 dollar range.  I expect this resistance level to be tested at least once more before the uptrend continues.  The chart to me still looks a bit heavy,  the recent high at 136 looks to be close enough to a previous peak (april 10th or 11th it looks like) that it could be a double top that may be signalling a range trade.  All in all though, it's too early to tell... at least for me.

[cusdog]

I would avoid using "chartist" techniques. They are nonsense. The modern incarnation of voodoo, if you will. 

[Templeton]

I would avoid using "chartist" techniques. They are nonsense. The modern incarnation of voodoo, if you will. 

You're right, i should just kill a squirel and read its entrails.  What do you do? put your money in and pray to Jesus?  Do a BTC rain-dance? or do you just get BTC so you can immediately spend it?

[ltbtdk]

I think the prices at the moment are kept steady by everyone hoping for another 200+, then dump. Truth is I think it will have to go down before it goes up and stays up. From my limited forex trading a meteoric rise is normally matched with a huge slide shortly after driving people off. Then steady growth will hopefully be the picture.

Either that or the range it is bouncing around now will become a comfortable zone and people will sell to quick if it rises,  afraid of the impending crash, and buy as soon as it falls trying to catch it low to sell at 200.

I could be wrong and most of my opinons are just that, opinions.

Also IMHO being a chartist will help you know when to get out before, if it crashes, and also when to hold when everyone else is selling. People can be very predictable when acting as a group.

[Templeton]

I think the prices at the moment are kept steady by everyone hoping for another 200+, then dump. Truth is I think it will have to go down before it goes up and stays up. From my limited forex trading a meteoric rise is normally matched with a huge slide shortly after driving people off. Then steady growth will hopefully be the picture.

Either that or the range it is bouncing around now will become a comfortable zone and people will sell to quick if it rises,  afraid of the impending crash, and buy as soon as it falls trying to catch it low to sell at 200.

I could be wrong and most of my opinons are just that, opinions.

Also IMHO being a chartist will help you know when to get out before, if it crashes, and also when to hold when everyone else is selling. People can be very predictable when acting as a group.

Completely agree with your feelings on being a chartist, although, i will admit, this market is not very friendly to anyone making predictions.  Also, it seems we have similar views on future price action.

[Templeton]

I would avoid using "chartist" techniques. They are nonsense. The modern incarnation of voodoo, if you will. 

Look, sorry I was such a dick.  To a certain extent I completely agree with you.  Having come from studying and trading precious metals for years,  I can appreciate how meaningless technicals can be, especially when banks like JP Morgan can flood the market with unbacked paper contracts in order to activate technical triggers. 


BTC is so new and undeveloped, however, that I believe that it's harder to connect its price action with any underlying fundamentals.  Rather, I believe that its price action is mostly guided by the collective whims of the small trading community that has coalesced around it.  This sentiment I think is more easily guaged by technicals than fundamental analysis, mostly because BTC isn't established enough for average FOREX or commodity traders (for instance) to view it as an alternative to fiat or other assets.

Just throwing that out there.

[sohaib38]

Chartist and technical analysis is not voodoo at all.  They predicted what happened with the bubble PERFECTLY.  The bubble popped and BTC dropped 85% in about a day or two.  Anyway I am surprised that it is back up to 130 now but I think it will probably drift down to $40 or $50 again after another smaller mini bubble or two.   I think some new money is still pouring in but we'll see what happens.

[freefall]

ermmm can we say up ^ =D

[Templeton]

Chartist and technical analysis is not voodoo at all.  They predicted what happened with the bubble PERFECTLY.  The bubble popped and BTC dropped 85% in about a day or two.  Anyway I am surprised that it is back up to 130 now but I think it will probably drift down to $40 or $50 again after another smaller mini bubble or two.   I think some new money is still pouring in but we'll see what happens.

yeah, until we get some confirmation to the upside (i don't think it's going to go down further than $40), I'm assuming we're in a range trade

[BioTurboNick]

Chartist and technical analysis is not voodoo at all.  They predicted what happened with the bubble PERFECTLY.  The bubble popped and BTC dropped 85% in about a day or two.  Anyway I am surprised that it is back up to 130 now but I think it will probably drift down to $40 or $50 again after another smaller mini bubble or two.   I think some new money is still pouring in but we'll see what happens.

Its voodoo-esque. But in trying to capture information from raw numbers on a chart, but to some extent it hides the variables that are actually driving the behavior. It can be easy to lose sight of the fact that its really just an abstraction of people's actions and thoughts on a mass basis.

I recall waiting for a train to come in for boarding and seeing everyone wait to go to the platform. It hadn't announced boarding yet, but as it arrived, and the train was in the process of emptying, a few people shifted a bit, edging forward a bit. Then a bit more increased movement. Then one person went for it and suddenly the whole crowd was moving. I witnessed the same thing after a late-night fire alarm at my apartment--they hadn't cleared our building yet, but suddenly one party headed back in and most other people immediately followed.

Anyway, I think its likely that a number of people are buying as its coming down, and since the market is still relatively small, it doesn't take all that many buy orders to start boosting the price again. But it may take a while for confidence to grow enough again for enough new buy orders to start pouring in to boost the price greatly.

[X-coin]

I would not bet on another breakdown down to $ 50.

I think the price will move around the $ 90 to $ 140 range for at least some weeks before rising again.

Technical analysis only makes sense in saturated markets - bitcoin is still in it's infancy. It can die from technical problems or enter hyperdeflation.

But who knows...

[Templeton]

I would not bet on another breakdown down to $ 50.

I think the price will move around the $ 90 to $ 140 range for at least some weeks before rising again.

What is the basis for this prediction?  just curious...

[yefi]

I'm thinking a fib retracement to be tested.

[Templeton]

So far 130-135 band is holding per my expectations.  DAMN IT I WANT SOME ACTION (i gots cash on the sidelines)!

[X-coin]

I would not bet on another breakdown down to $ 50.

I think the price will move around the $ 90 to $ 140 range for at least some weeks before rising again.

What is the basis for this prediction?  just curious...

Well, if bitcoin was a stock I'd say based on the last correction total crash (-80 to -100%).

But bitcoin is a new technology which is not widely adopted yet. There is huge influx of new capital. This will limit downward pressure. On the other hand some confidence was lost due to the harsh correction. It needs time to get back to euphoria.

Just my thoughts - but of course I can't see the future...

[ooeygooeygold]

I believe bitcoin is still in its early stages soon it will hit the moon forsure

[Templeton]

I believe bitcoin is still in its early stages soon it will hit the moon forsure

maybe in the span of years... i was thinking more short term... say in the next week or two