As most people in this forum I have great hopes for cryptocurrencies. However I just cannot see how bitcoin can achieve mainstream adaptation, because:
Broad adaptation would require >50 million users and market cap>20 billion usd
It must happen over a period of 2-3 years
But practically all bitcoins for that period are already produced and posessed
Some magic kind of distribution must take place - that wont happen!
Bitcoins will remain a sandbox for speculators and kids unless something is done.
One solution is proposed here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181488.0I always find the way people come up with their idea of the future very interesting, but remarkable limited.
The figures above are very limited because they don't mean anything - even the time scale is a nonsense.
Why not start again, with some kind of big picture guidance of how technology moves into the mainstream?
The most interesting indicator I can highlight is the theory to commodity timescale. Most products that become life changing (these are things like cars, microwave ovens, mobile phones, computers etc) take around 30 years.
Software is quicker to make it, but you are still looking at 10 years for a radical software concept to go from version 0.1 to 'everyone' using it!
So, next issue - people numbers.
Who is going to use bitcoin? Only Americans? Only the US and the EU? Maybe the whole of the world who currently have mobile phones?
50 million users is what exactly? people who own a bitcoin or a bit of a bitcoin? We are probably close to at least 2-3 million people who are in that box already. Look at the forum growth for an indicator of where we are today - its going to take far longer than 3 years!
I was one of the first 1% of internet users and it was lonely, but slowly, we grew to what we have today! - For bitcoin to make a dent in the real world, we just need people to not give up using it. This isn't exclusively using bitcoin - its just the number of people with the means to use a bitcoin to make a sale.
Finally, the killer point that needs to be understood - bitcoin is just an experiment in crypto currencies. Its very unlikely that bitcoin will ever become the big alternative digital currency by itself! It will however help people understand the concept so that they will feel more comfortable when they use Litecoins, PPCoins and whatever Altcoin we find that can do whatever flaw kills bitcoin.
This is a very long game, and I would be looking at 2020 before you will be surprised when you DON'T see bitcoin or other altcoin in the same list as Paypal on every website.
As for you big worry about no trading going on, it takes time to convince people the price isn't going to go up any further and its safe to start spending. That will be the magic that makes it start happening!
