ETF POLL APPROVAL / REJECTION

[BlackJacky]

Easy question

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Not an easy answer to predict though. I really hope it gets approved but in all honesty have no idea what the decision will be.

[AngryDwarf]

I've voted rejected.

Some independent (i.e. not bitcoin enthusiast) have speculated the odds of its approval are about 50/50, basically it depends on which side of bed the regulators get up on.

I think what may swing the decision is that if such an ETF starts to get high frequency trading on NASDAQ, it could lead to such an increase in arbitrage activity across multiple bitcoin exchanges that there is bound to be an increase in inter bitcoin exchange transfers over the blockchain.

I think at this moment in time it might not be good for bitcoin. I'm not in the markets are rational camp. I'd prefer to see steady growth than another 2013 irrational exuberance event.

[VforVictory]

I've voted for the ETF to be approved. I don't have much reasons for that except for the price to blow up high which should be a positive side for all bitcoin holders such as me. But just as what above reply said, that the approval is on 50/50.

[aso118]

I think it will be rejected. The SEC will play safe this time around.
PS - The decision will come only on March 13, which is a Monday.

[ebliever]

I'm going to lean to the optimistic side of things. If not now, when? If rejected, why? People can already lose their shirts investing in bitcoin, the ETF just provides a safer, more regulated environment for such investment.

This is completely speculative and non-rational, but I just have a gut feeling that the election of Trump signals a more business-like acceptance of risk-taking as part of life, and that this could provide a subliminal tipping point in the decision-makers thinking. Or to put it another way, the nanny-state worldview has been thrown back a couple paces, and it is that worldview which would lend itself to denying the ETF as "too risky."

[Vaccinus]

I think it will be rejected. The SEC will play safe this time around.
PS - The decision will come only on March 13, which is a Monday.

wasn't this EFT already rejected many times? i think this time they will approve it

I'm going to lean to the optimistic side of things. If not now, when? If rejected, why? People can already lose their shirts investing in bitcoin, the ETF just provides a safer, more regulated environment for such investment.

This is completely speculative and non-rational, but I just have a gut feeling that the election of Trump signals a more business-like acceptance of risk-taking as part of life, and that this could provide a subliminal tipping point in the decision-makers thinking. Or to put it another way, the nanny-state worldview has been thrown back a couple paces, and it is that worldview which would lend itself to denying the ETF as "too risky."

regulation is important in crypto, for me it's what keep the naive investors away from this world, with more regulation more money come in the market

[Idrisu]

If it get approved good for buy and holds traders as bitcoin price will pump up. But let look at the rational behind why if it get approved by security and exchange commission it will affect bitcoin in a long run. Bitcoin was created as a crypto currencies, ETF approval will make investors to see bitcoin as stock and and precious metals and in doing that bitcoin value as a currencies will be undermined.though for now it might be approve.

[gentlemand]

wasn't this EFT already rejected many times? i think this time they will approve it

Not rejected. The decision deadline has been postponed repeatedly.

I don't understand why anyone's devoting brain power to trying to predict this. 

[alyssa85]

I think it will be rejected. The SEC will play safe this time around.
PS - The decision will come only on March 13, which is a Monday.

I voted for rejected as well.

But there are two other Bitcoin ETFs in the pipeline, so this will start all over again in a few months!

[Kprawn]

I am the true optimist here and voted for a "approval" because I think with Trump in power.. we might see some new decisions being made than

what was the norm a while ago. I think it is time for change and Bitcoin brings that change to the market. The ETF is a extra level of protection

for investors in Bitcoin... if they reject it now, people will invest in Bitcoin directly and this carry more risk for these investors. 

[favdesu]

I don't think it'll happen this time..

[OROBTC]

...

I hope that the BTC ETF is approved.  My *guess*, FWIW, is that it will be.

But what is more important is the acceptance of Bitcoin itself!  This is what is really more important, acceptance by more users and more merchants.  Approval of the ETF might speed up acceptance by mroe people as it enhances BTC visibility.  And makes Bitcoin less shady-looking.

[Technicality]

I think it'll be rejected.

If the SEC is so intent on repeatedly postponing the result, I don't think they're confident in the stability of Bitcoin as an investment and therefore are unlikely to approve it.

There are so many other factors which will make Bitcoin a great investment, so maybe in the future they will accept it, but I don't think now will be the time.

[calkob]

I have heard arguments both for and against this ETF being approved and i still dont really know where i stand myself.  Tone vays thinks that it will be rejected but Trace mayers thinks it's a good thing.  I sort think that if more money can come into bitcoin the better for the community as there will be higher demand.

But i have also seen posts about how it might allow big corporations to produce derivatives contracts in the future, which could be bad.

[Slark]

We need to realize main two facts:

1. Some bitcoin newbies think that 11 March is some kind of final and definite date. It is Now or Never.
No it is not. EFT will be merely postponed and accepted in the future for sure. Winklevoss might need to add another layer of security to protect customers etc.

2. Professional market analysts agreed that current chances for ETF approval are less than 30%
We know that analytics were wrong before, but please don't keep your hope high in this case.

[gentlemand]

We need to realize main two facts:

1. Some bitcoin newbies think that 11 March is some kind of final and definite date. It is Now or Never.
No it is not. EFT will be merely postponed and accepted in the future for sure. Winklevoss might need to add another layer of security to protect customers etc.

I'm not so sure about this. They may have to put together a completely new application. And this deadline isn't the ETF application anyway, it's the BATS rule change.

If that rule change isn't implemented then the Winklevii will need to find a new exchange.

And there are two more applications coming along in short succession.

[ebliever]

We need to realize main two facts:

1. Some bitcoin newbies think that 11 March is some kind of final and definite date. It is Now or Never.
No it is not. EFT will be merely postponed and accepted in the future for sure. Winklevoss might need to add another layer of security to protect customers etc.

2. Professional market analysts agreed that current chances for ETF approval are less than 30%
We know that analytics were wrong before, but please don't keep your hope high in this case.

No, the March 13 (not 11) date is the final date for the Winkelvoss ETF. There are no more postponements possible for it.

I've seen professionals say 30%, 50%, over 50%, and similar numbers. No one really knows.

[cryp24x]

I voted for approval though that is somehow a wishful thinking since I am not actually sure that it will be approved.  All the decision is upto SEC and the only thing we can do is hope they will get what majority of the community wants and approve it.

[yefi]

I've seen professionals say 30%, 50%, over 50%, and similar numbers. No one really knows.

The numbers are all over the place. Bitmex futures contract has also vacillated wildly.

Looking at the current composition of the SEC, and that they've still not rejected it yet, I think the odds are at least 50% in its favour.