$500 bitcoin by mid-July

[MatTheCat]

There cannot be any deflation. The printing presses are running like never before.

LOL!

Do you really think it is that simple?

Stop getting your economics advice from internet conspiracy gooks and realise that the global economy is screaming out to have a deflationary crash, which is being postponed due to central bank printing. And where is all this new 'printed money' going? Is it going to Main Street, have your wages suddenly tripled in nominal terms thanks to all the new dosh floating around the economy which has also pushed up the price of bread, milk, transportation costs 3-4 times? The answer is of course no! This money for the most part has not went into the economy of real things but is being used to prop the balance sheets of otherwise insolvent financial institutions/entities, essentially allowing the multi-billionaire financial class who are invested in and ultimately control these institutions to claw 'value' back which would otherwise have gone up in smoke back in 2008. Thus allowing the elite parasite class to continue with their mass theft of wealth whilst passing on the short term costs onto the tax payer. Think of it a bit like a tradesman who knows he is going out of business, buying himself a bit of time to shift all his valuable and seizeable assets out of the reach of the receivers, before being foreclosed on.

Whilst the reality is that ultimately, this will all end in hyperinflation as this us the only way the US has to deal with the astronomical debt without the US government defaulting, which just isn't going to be allowed to happen. What major powers and creditors of the US such as China make of this is another matter. However, in between then and now, there will be serious deflationary events, which will destroy huge amounts of wealth, pushing the 99% further down into the poor house, before the central banks come to save us all with yet more money printing, (again shoring up balance sheets of insolvent/bankrupt institutions, allowing them to buy up all the assets at relative fire sale prices).

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[RenegadeMind]

- more European economic problems, Cyprus-like: Spain, Portugal, Greece.

I think this is a given. The EU is a failed experiment and is falling apart. The only question is when the next implosion will hit.

Given that many other countries, e.g. Canada and Switzerland, have either already enacted or have legislation in front of them now for "bail-in" thefts from people's bank accounts, it's probably a safe assumption that we'll see more thefts by the bankers to prop up their criminality. This will have further devastating effects on central bank fiat currency, and drive people into hard assets that are not so easily subject to confiscation.

However, there are significant market manipulations going on that have affected assets like gold/silver in ways opposite to what one would expect from current news and events. The question there is whether or not the manipulations can continue indefinitely or how long they can suppress asset prices.

With the acceleration of the decay of the EU, I don't think it will be long before we see another major crisis. Japan is debasing its currency, which is just one more indication that the rot is worldwide, and not limited to the EU. The recent reports of Chinese municipality debt also indicates the rot is inside the BRICs countries. Not good for them. But it will be good for bitcoin!

[Xiaoma]

Whilst the reality is that ultimately, this will all end in hyperinflation as this us the only way the US has to deal with the astronomical debt without the US government defaulting, which just isn't going to be allowed to happen. What major powers and creditors of the US such as China make of this is another matter.

China is moving out of this game, reducing the investment in USD by having more different currencies. This is already annoying the US government a lot.
But if you invest in the stock market, is only smart move to diversify the basket of stocks so China is doing the right thing.

Let's see next 6 months.

[MatTheCat]

So you're saying that if a major, world-wide store of value (silver) crashes and burns; bitcoin - another, but appreciating, store of value - will plummet as well?
Interesting.

No smart arse.

I am saying that if there is another widespread deflationary event, that Bitcoin will crash and burn. Of course, so will everything else but Bitcoin will top the list by a long way.

What happens in just a single market isn't greatly relevant, especially not markets as controlled and manipulated (and therefore markets that defy all rules of logic) as the PM markets.

[Kazu]

There cannot be any deflation. The printing presses are running like never before.

LOL!

Do you really think it is that simple?

Stop getting your economics advice from internet conspiracy gooks and realise that the global economy is screaming out to have a deflationary crash, which is being postponed due to central bank printing. And where is all this new 'printed money' going? Is it going to Main Street, have your wages suddenly tripled in nominal terms thanks to all the new dosh floating around the economy which has also pushed up the price of bread, milk, transportation costs 3-4 times? The answer is of course no! This money for the most part has not went into the economy of real things but is being used to prop the balance sheets of otherwise insolvent financial institutions/entities, essentially allowing the multi-billionaire financial class who are invested in and ultimately control these institutions to claw 'value' back which would otherwise have gone up in smoke back in 2008. Thus allowing the elite parasite class to continue with their mass theft of wealth whilst passing on the short term costs onto the tax payer. Think of it a bit like a tradesman who knows he is going out of business, buying himself a bit of time to shift all his valuable and seizeable assets out of the reach of the receivers, before being foreclosed on.

Whilst the reality is that ultimately, this will all end in hyperinflation as this us the only way the US has to deal with the astronomical debt without the US government defaulting, which just isn't going to be allowed to happen. What major powers and creditors of the US such as China make of this is another matter. However, in between then and now, there will be serious deflationary events, which will destroy huge amounts of wealth, pushing the 99% further down into the poor house, before the central banks come to save us all with yet more money printing, (again shoring up balance sheets of insolvent/bankrupt institutions, allowing them to buy up all the assets at relative fire sale prices).

You've got this pretty much backward. It should be more like "The central bank printing is screaming out to have hyperinflation which is being postponed due to a global economy that would otherwise cause a deflationary crash."

[kingcrimson]

There cannot be any deflation. The printing presses are running like never before.

LOL!

Do you really think it is that simple?

Stop getting your economics advice from internet conspiracy gooks

They've been right on the money so far. Do you ignore the global news that has been happening the last 5 years? We're not in the year 2000 anymore.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

By the way, seems silver will go really down, maybe to 15$ an ounce... this year. Which might shake the stocks as well.

If there is any widespread deflationary event, then watch Bitcoin (99.5% speculative capital) crash and burn.

This is something that is so very obvious and with a high likelihood of occurring in the near future, yet nobody here seems to want to even consider the issue.

ya probably but tell that to the hundreds of peole that are now hundred thousand airs or > because they spent a hundred-onethousand on bitcoins. ya its a risk but big reward. if you dont like bit coin than don't buy any bitcoins. if your board go watch a movie. if you want to troll than i guess keep on doing what your doing.

[MatTheCat]

They've been right on the money so far. Do you ignore the global news that has been happening the last 5 years? We're not in the year 2000 anymore.

If some fkn Jeff Rense or David Icke type satisfies some emotional need within yourself, then that is up to you. But whatever the merits of these types and the anti-dote paradigms that they offer, accurate accounts of issues just isn't their thing. Even if they had the patience to, going into technical details of issues (i.e. being accurate) would bore 95% of their audiences.

When it comes to handling investments or wealth, anyone who is stupid enough to allow the sensationalist ramblings of these guys inform their wealth allocation decisions, will soon be parted from their pennies, and if they haven't already been, it is only through sheer coincidental good fortune.

ya probably but tell that to the hundreds of peole that are now hundred thousand airs or > because they spent a hundred-onethousand on bitcoins. ya its a risk but big reward.

I don't need to tell that to anyone who has become massively wealthy, as they will have already have sold their Bitcoins in order to make these profits, no doubt aware of what a free ride Bitcoin was and smart enough to cash in when they did.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

They've been right on the money so far. Do you ignore the global news that has been happening the last 5 years? We're not in the year 2000 anymore.

If some fkn Jeff Rense or David Icke type satisfies some emotional need within yourself, then that is up to you. But whatever the merits of these types and the anti-dote paradigms that they offer, accurate accounts of issues just isn't their thing. Even if they had the patience to, going into technical details of issues (i.e. being accurate) would bore 95% of their audiences.

When it comes to handling investments or wealth, anyone who is stupid enough to allow the sensationalist ramblings of these guys inform their wealth allocation decisions, will soon be parted from their pennies, and if they haven't already been, it is only through sheer coincidental good fortune.

ya probably but tell that to the hundreds of peole that are now hundred thousand airs or > because they spent a hundred-onethousand on bitcoins. ya its a risk but big reward.

I don't need to tell that to anyone who has become massively wealthy, as they will have already have sold their Bitcoins in order to make these profits, no doubt aware of what a free ride Bitcoin was and smart enough to cash in when they did.

ha you just said that nobody is considering it....im just saying that ya ok cool maybe some or all are not considering that it will crash and burn at 95% chance. it what rhetorical as to "tell that to all the one who made money" im saying that people are making money have made money and that they accepted the risk/reward. wow mr litteral. I bet you a hoot at parties

[bitcoinBull]

56 days until then.

What kind of power, action or event would be needed for that?

- more European economic problems, Cyprus-like: Spain, Portugal, Greece.
- more mainstream news about bitcoin
- more big "investors"
- more options to buy with, exchanges, apps, games etc

It may not be any kind of news event, or any kind of exogenous (as compared to "endogenous") action. Its estimated that 80% of volatility is due to self-reflexive feedback of activity.

Sometimes you just have to let the market play itself out. There's already enough new investors in the gox queue, or who wanted to buy but thought the $150/$250 price range was too high (relative to recent price history).

There may be enough equilibrium/momentum to take the price to $500 in 6 mo, or it might take 2 years. Even without any particularly noteworthy news.

[schmokel]

So you're saying that if a major, world-wide store of value (silver) crashes and burns; bitcoin - another, but appreciating, store of value - will plummet as well?
Interesting.

No smart arse.

I am saying that if there is another widespread deflationary event, that Bitcoin will crash and burn. Of course, so will everything else but Bitcoin will top the list by a long way.

What happens in just a single market isn't greatly relevant, especially not markets as controlled and manipulated (and therefore markets that defy all rules of logic) as the PM markets.

A lot of the points you've made ring true.  My hunch is you will be proven right in the end.  These are strange times.  Any reasonable person knows a deflationary event is imminent, and the usual safe harbor (PMs) is being manipulated with naked shorts.  When you're the Fed and can short using printable currency, there is little to lose in the short term.  Will Bitcoins serve as a modern safe harbor from the bankers?  In the long term, I do not think they will.

Bitcoins are an absolutely fascinating financial instrument.  However, the fact that they are backed by nothing, not even a government, will play a leading role in its volatility.  Being backed by no government, Bitcoins must be readily convertible to some useful form to ensure long-term survival.  Faith will not suffice.  Faith is fiat and fiat is faith.  I believe this is where an alternate crypto currency will emerge.  The act of mining will produce a useful product which can be redeemed at a later time.  Redemption will destroy that particular unit of currency.  What form this product will take is anyone's guess.  I'd be surprised if someone wasn't working on this concept already.  In the very, very long term, I believe stored energy will be the next currency, but that is for another topic.

I'm also troubled by the fact that all exchanges look to Mt. Gox for pricing information.  This is problematic for many reasons.  We've seen the effect that DDOS has had.  What happens when the government of Japan seizes Mt. Gox's bank accounts over some trumped up charge, or worse yet, seizes the servers and never returns them?  I believe something like this is bound to happen.  What do you think will happen to the value of a Bitcoin?

[wachtwoord]

There cannot be any deflation. The printing presses are running like never before.

LOL!

Do you really think it is that simple?

Stop getting your economics advice from internet conspiracy gooks and realise that the global economy is screaming out to have a deflationary crash, which is being postponed due to central bank printing. And where is all this new 'printed money' going? Is it going to Main Street, have your wages suddenly tripled in nominal terms thanks to all the new dosh floating around the economy which has also pushed up the price of bread, milk, transportation costs 3-4 times? The answer is of course no! This money for the most part has not went into the economy of real things but is being used to prop the balance sheets of otherwise insolvent financial institutions/entities, essentially allowing the multi-billionaire financial class who are invested in and ultimately control these institutions to claw 'value' back which would otherwise have gone up in smoke back in 2008. Thus allowing the elite parasite class to continue with their mass theft of wealth whilst passing on the short term costs onto the tax payer. Think of it a bit like a tradesman who knows he is going out of business, buying himself a bit of time to shift all his valuable and seizeable assets out of the reach of the receivers, before being foreclosed on.

Whilst the reality is that ultimately, this will all end in hyperinflation as this us the only way the US has to deal with the astronomical debt without the US government defaulting, which just isn't going to be allowed to happen. What major powers and creditors of the US such as China make of this is another matter. However, in between then and now, there will be serious deflationary events, which will destroy huge amounts of wealth, pushing the 99% further down into the poor house, before the central banks come to save us all with yet more money printing, (again shoring up balance sheets of insolvent/bankrupt institutions, allowing them to buy up all the assets at relative fire sale prices).

dude you are describing inflation. Inflation is the increase of the total amount of some good (in this case fiat currency) undermining its value. Deflation is the decrease in the amount of outstanding fiat currency.

When more USD is created than destroyed there is inflation.

[xgf666]

I don't think that BTC will ever rich $500 because 100% of average Joe which is 95% of bitcoin "traders" will sell at $300 maybe $260 like the last time.

[wobber]

I don't think that BTC will ever rich $500 because 100% of average Joe which is 95% of bitcoin "traders" will sell at $300 maybe $260 like the last time.

No. It could be the same at 31 or 50. Given limited supply, prices will eventually be astronomical. It will matter how many coins you'll have.

[afbitcoins]

I reckon bitcoins will be worth a lot more than $500 in time, just not by mid-July

[w00t]

I don't think that BTC will ever rich $500 because 100% of average Joe which is 95% of bitcoin "traders" will sell at $300 maybe $260 like the last time.

I would not sell my coins for even $500. I don't know maybe I'm the pig but is there anything to prove your claim?

[SlipperySlope]

Looking at USD/BTC prices on Mt Gox, from 2011 to present, on a log chart and fitting along the lowest support levels, that prices have risen about 5x annually. That is awesome growth! Five times in one year, 25x  in two years, 125x in three years.

But speculators get ahead of this underlying awesome growth and create bubbles in which prices have double exponential growth doubling in weeks and days!

Suppose that 13.50 in January was a fairly valued pre-bubble price. When will $500 be reached given ideal steady 5x annual growth from there?

13.5 - January 2013
67.5 - January 2014
337.5 - January 2015
1687.5 - January 2016

I believe, based upon the underlying price growth trend that fairly valued $500 bitcoin will be reached in 2015. Probably $500 will be easily exceeded in the next and much bigger bitcoin bubble.

[World]

I don't think that BTC will ever rich $500 because 100% of average Joe which is 95% of bitcoin "traders" will sell at $300 maybe $260 like the last time.

It is good and it is called distribution.

[wobber]

What if...

and what if we will really have series of rallies, then plateaus of consolidation with continuous interest in BTC and more buyers...

500 until july is nothing.

It takes 113.57k BTC to be bought or some 23 mil $. According to the wall.

And not necessary being a bubble. At 500 I would sell everything except 5 or 10. If people would just take as they need, it can be sustainable.

Let's say i sell all at 500. What i would do, I would start some little shop/business etc, make money and then reinvest at 1000. Maybe I'll have money to buy just 5 coins, which I'll sel at 1500.

[mcarturr]

i hope bitcoin reach that price