How quickly will ASIC's ruin bitcoin?

[fruitcommander]

If I order some ASICS and get them in July, will they even be worth having by that time? I know everyone is saying they are a scam, but I think people will be getting them VERY soon. So if I drop $20-30,000 on some right now, will it even be worth it?

[fruitcommander]

How so? If I drop $30,000 on some Asics today and get them in July, will I recoup my investment?

[empoweoqwj]

remove the "ruin bitcoin" part and replace it with "change the face of bitcoin mining" and it starts to make some sense.

If the OP really thinks ASICs will ruin bitcoins, they probably shouldn't "drop"  $20K on buying any  

[empoweoqwj]

How so? If I drop $30,000 on some Asics today and get them in July, will I recoup my investment?

1) You won't get them in July if you order now
2) Nobody knows the future price of bitcoins

[fruitcommander]

Ok, so if it "changes the face" or whatever, how quickly do you guys think the difficulty will jump? And who knows, maybe BFL will get it together and start shipping now that the bugs are worked out.

[Elwar]

Once ASICs come out mining will cease because of too much mining.

[empoweoqwj]

Do your own research, its your cash after all.

But I repeat:
a) You won't get anything in July if you order now. There is a long queue already.
b) You cannot predict anything about the bitcoin price / economy in 3 months time, its hard to predict 3 days ahead.

If you have 30K you can afford to lose / put in someone's bank account for 12 months, sure, go ahead. It wouldn't be my plan though for the best use of $30K.

[bg002h]

I think it's a terrible investment. Real businesses don't take your money until they ship. Anything else is unwise.

That said, if you get your ASIC by July (read October) many others will have theirs before you, making it not worth it.

Oh, the title of your thread is rather perplexing. It makes no sense.

[BkkCoins]

BFL is only one ASIC mfr. and the other two already have products shipped.

You should expect difficulty to double each month at least for at least for at least the next 3-4 months. After that it could even out depending on how many people start ordering soon. Plug numbers into your mining calc and see where you stand.

Difficulty has to increase 128x now to break even on electricity (roughly speaking of course). That means 6-7 months of doubling.

The only way you could get an ASIC miner now by July is to order chips on this forum and build/have built for yourself. That also looks like the cheapest method too. Chip orders are already pending at the fab for those of us who bought 4-5 days ago. Delivery 9-10 weeks.

[fruitcommander]

BFL is only one ASIC mfr. and the other two already have products shipped.

You should expect difficulty to double each month at least for at least for at least the next 3-4 months. After that it could even out depending on how many people start ordering soon. Plug numbers into your mining calc and see where you stand.

Difficulty has to increase 128x now to break even on electricity (roughly speaking of course). That means 6-7 months of doubling.

The only way you could get an ASIC miner now by July is to order chips on this forum and build/have built for yourself. That also looks like the cheapest method too. Chip orders are already pending at the fab for those of us who bought 4-5 days ago. Delivery 9-10 weeks.

Would you mind giving me a hand with this? I'd rather just do it this way. I'll Pm you as well.

[BkkCoins]

Would you mind giving me a hand with this? I'd rather just do it this way. I'll Pm you as well.

Check the custom hardware forum. There's other's making boards and there will be more services popping up when the full open source docs are released. Do your research before jumping on something.

[nebulus]

I know everyone is saying they are a scam

I'm sorry , what?

[dyseac]

[virtualmaster]

It will not ruin bitcoin but it could ruin you.
Don't blame bitcoin if you buy everything what is bitcoin related without economical calculations.

[robamichael]

ASICs are doomed to ruin Bitcoin the same way that GPU mining did.

[Malawi]

The influx of ASIS may mean that there will be more cheap coins for sale as the first mines with this tool will make a lot more BTC.

You have to decide yourself if you wanna buy bitcoins for the money or buy mining equipment. It's really not that easy to say what path will be the best. (Unless you are an early ASIC adopter)

[georgeberz]

Arent ASIC's going to do what GPU mining did to CPU mining.

We look and laugh at people still dong CPU mining.

ASIC miners will look and laugh at GPU miners...

Will ASIC units always be able to mine bitcoins?

A question to ponder though... What can you do besides bitcoin with a ASIC processor?

What if some bitcoin protocol or hashing method changes will the ASIC processors still be able to run?

George

[bitcoinminer]

There are much better things you could spend your money on.

I suggest real estate.  NYC has a never ending supply of traffic and tolls are gathered on various bridges.  I have a business opportunity, if interested.  For $30,000 I can guarantee you a non-exclusive, non-binding lease on the number 3 toll booth on the Brooklyn Bridge.  The number 3 toll booth accepts EZ-Pass as well as cash, and could be quite the lucrative opportunity.  The term of this non-exclusive, non-binding lease would be 24 months from date of payment.  I also have 5, 10, 25, 50, and 99 year leases available.