Bitcoin Prices for March 2018, March 2019 and March 2020 and why.

[btc_zep]

My long term price predictions are as follows:

Scenario 1


March 1st 2018 - $8,950 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2019 - $68,059 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2020 - $517,536 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2021 - $3,935,454 Per 1 BTC


How I arrived at the above numbers........

July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)

and on Dec 6th 2010 bitcoin price was $375.00


Time interval between both dates is 1604 days or 53 months

The computed doubling time for Bitcoin worked out to be 4.1 months between the two dates
ie every 4.1 months over the 53 months time period , the price doubled


I then took the 27th Feb 2017 price of ($1177) as a start date & price and using MS Excel's POWER Function in a spreadsheet projected it forward for the next 4 years again assuming it ( the price ) will be doubling every 4.1 months ( which is historically what it did between July 17th 2010 and December 6th 2010)


-----------------------------------

Scenario 2

July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)

28th Feb 2017 bitcoin price was $1177

Time interval between both dates is 2418 days or 79.497 months


 then i took the 27th Feb 2017 price of ($1177) as a start date & price and using MS Excel's POWER Function in a spreadsheet projected it forward for the next 4 years, again assuming it ( the price ) will be doubling every 5.473 months   ( which is historically what it did between July 17th 2010 and Feb 28th 2017)

which gives the following price predictions


March 1st 2018 - $5,403 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2019 - $24,699 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2020 - $112,699 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2021 - $516,115 Per 1 BTC


both scenarios assume that the price doubling is constant going forward , and yes i know it wont actually happen like that , but it a good excersise to see how close i end up being to my original scenario 1 & 2 predictions


Thats how i worked out my predictions, i also took into account that a lot of technologies grow on an exponential curve, and i think that Bitcoin is one such "technology"

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[Red-Apple]

good post. it would have been 10 times better if you said these things on a chart that you extrapolated the data using some lines.

i should add that the speed of price rise goes down as time passes, it means in the first years the rises could easily be 1000% or more in a year for instance but as time passed and it reached the 7th and 8th year the rises became 300% or 180% in a year.

so until next year i would expect something between 100% to 200% price rise compared to this year price.

also i should add that there are some stuff that can change this speed. for example if some kind of adoption happens. for example if ETF is approved, if some other thing happens that can cause a big adoption, it can lead to much more price rise upto 500% and more.

[gentlemand]

Predictions like this tend to forget one rather important thing, rises happen because real people put real money in. The bigger the rise, the more real people are required. You can't magic them up from nowhere.

Real people are not predictable and they're extremely conservative as to where they throw their money. The latecomers will be more conservative than the nutters who arrived early.

If there are enough of them then that isn't a problem but nothing happens in a vacuum.

And I don't think the technological S curve can apply to something so complex that requires people to really think. Very few know anything about money. Adopting mobile phones or the internet was a no brainer.

[btc_zep]

good post. it would have been 10 times better if you said these things on a chart that you extrapolated the data using some lines.

i should add that the speed of price rise goes down as time passes, it means in the first years the rises could easily be 1000% or more in a year for instance but as time passed and it reached the 7th and 8th year the rises became 300% or 180% in a year.

so until next year i would expect something between 100% to 200% price rise compared to this year price.

also i should add that there are some stuff that can change this speed. for example if some kind of adoption happens. for example if ETF is approved, if some other thing happens that can cause a big adoption, it can lead to much more price rise upto 500% and more.

ok, i can work on a chart , a good idea

the doubling effect ( From Moore's law) is well known in the tech world, think internet usage, cell phones, etc

so Bitcoin will follow the S-Curve of technological adoption

( its called the S Curve simply because of its letter "S" shape, its defining characteristic is the extremely slow exponential ramp up to the point at which the growth goes "vertical" and big majority adoption is rapidly achieved)

we are still in the Innovators/Early adoption stage

[Pierre 2]

Economy is not magic numbers.
Sadly this is true.
It is human behavioural thingy. These expections will never happen if it doesnt hold interest.

[btc_zep]

Predictions like this tend to forget one rather important thing, rises happen because real people put real money in. The bigger the rise, the more real people are required. You can't magic them up from nowhere.

Real people are not predictable and they're extremely conservative as to where they throw their money. The latecomers will be more conservative than the nutters who arrived early.

If there are enough of them then that isn't a problem but nothing happens in a vacuum.

And I don't think the technological S curve can apply to something so complex that requires people to really think. Very few know anything about money. Adopting mobile phones or the internet was a no brainer.

Big & median  money and most people are not in the "game" yet

most money comes in at 34% point of adoption ( the early majority ) and again at the 68% point of adoption ( the late majority)

we are currently somewhere between 7 and 13% point of adoption , so we still have a while to go


Pierre 2 :  Bitcoin has "legs" , this is going to be around in 20+ years time  so it will hold interest

( dont make the "IBM mistake" :  Personal computers? no one will want one of those in their home  - an IBM chiefy Exec )

[gentlemand]

Big & median  money and most people are not in the "game" yet

most money comes in at 34% point of adoption ( the early majority ) and again at the 68% point of adoption ( the late majority)

we are currently somewhere between 7 and 13% point of adoption , so we still have a while to go


Pierre 2 :  Bitcoin has "legs" , this is going to be around in 20+ years time  so it will hold interest

( dont make the "IBM mistake" :  Personal computers? no one will want one of those in their home  - an IBM chiefy Exec )

There is of course massive potential, but this is money first and technology second. Don't underestimate how emotive a subject money is and how uneducated most people are about it.

Applying technological parallels discounts that factor which is vastly more powerful.

[olushakes]

My long term price predictions are as follows:

Scenario 1


March 1st 2018 - $8,950 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2019 - $68,059 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2020 - $517,536 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2021 - $3,935,454 Per 1 BTC


How I arrived at the above numbers........

July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)

and on Dec 6th 2010 bitcoin price was $375.00


Time interval between both dates is 1604 days or 53 months

The computed doubling time for Bitcoin worked out to be 4.1 months between the two dates
ie every 4.1 months over the 53 months time period , the price doubled


I then took the 27th Feb 2017 price of ($1177) as a start date & price and using MS Excel's POWER Function in a spreadsheet projected it forward for the next 4 years again assuming it ( the price ) will be doubling every 4.1 months ( which is historically what it did between July 17th 2010 and December 6th 2010)


-----------------------------------

Scenario 2

July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)

28th Feb 2017 bitcoin price was $1177

Time interval between both dates is 2418 days or 79.497 months


 then i took the 27th Feb 2017 price of ($1177) as a start date & price and using MS Excel's POWER Function in a spreadsheet projected it forward for the next 4 years, again assuming it ( the price ) will be doubling every 5.473 months   ( which is historically what it did between July 17th 2010 and Feb 28th 2017)

which gives the following price predictions


March 1st 2018 - $5,403 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2019 - $24,699 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2020 - $112,699 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2021 - $516,115 Per 1 BTC


both scenarios assume that the price doubling is constant going forward


Thats how i worked out my predictions, i also took into account that a lot of technologies grow on an exponential curve, and i think that Bitcoin is one such "technology"

Your assumption I will say its correct because its backed by fact which can be verified. However, what you fail to take into consideration is the qualitative factors that might happen as you have only limited your assumptions to only quantitative factors alone. Also, you also need to know past information or historical information are not a determinant of the future as they are only good for prediction in which you have done.

[york780]

But what to do then when BTC is worth 4mln fiat money. Transfer it to fiat? Nah fiat will be useless when so many people are using BTC in that period. Buying land/houses i suppose? Even a girlfriend ? I will be a great sugardaddy i guess

[maydna]

wow its really a good dream for me if i can see the price is increase until that price. i imagine, that if the price is really reach that price in 2018 or at least in the end of 2017, we see the price is $5000, do you can think how much people that can buy bitcoin in that price? do you think that almost all people in bitcoin community can buy bitcoin for that price? is that the price is not too higher while bitcoin itself is too young to be in that price? and many question in my head to see your scenario but i do have the same dream like you.

[LittleBitFunny]

I'm sorry but this is dreaming, the whole world isn't just going to jump on like techy earlybirds did.  The gross world product is approximately 107 trillion and 107 trillion divided by the potential 21 million Bitcoin is around $5,000,000 so Scenario 1 suggests that nearly the entire world will have all of their money in Bitcoin within the next 4 years.

Wikipedia estimates that around 47% of the world uses the Internet based on 2016 statistics, but your scenario requires nearly three quarters of the world's GDP to be based online within 4 years.  I appreciate that areas with less access to the Internet might have a lower GDP per capita, but still the scenario isn't just unfeasible, it's impossible.

Even scenario 2 is ridiculous because people don't just leap on new ideas which they don't necessarily understand.  Especially when most people don't have unlimited data everywhere and the ability to just use their Bitcoin every day at any place.

[SvenBomvolen]

To me it's a bit strange to see such kind of predictions from newbie, sorry. Add to that there isn't any real sources and facts, which would prove this calculations. Now it looks just like I think that the price for bitcoin is going to be 5000$ next year, just cause of I think so.

[cramcram21]

Hope your prediction gets real,
It seems that it is a huge pump to come if your prediction is become real.

[btc_zep]

To me it's a bit strange to see such kind of predictions from newbie, sorry. Add to that there isn't any real sources and facts, which would prove this calculations. Now it looks just like I think that the price for bitcoin is going to be 5000$ next year, just cause of I think so.

im a "newbie" as you call me , on this forum

ok

but i've been in bitcoin since late 2011 , ive been through Mt Gox when it was the only exchange, ( and got my BTC's out a month before it went belly up() i've seen all the high's and low's , l've seen the peak rises and all the drops , i was on Crypsy and countless others, manged to get out always in time

i've seen  the adoption rate increase slowly over time

and i've educated probably 100+  people these past 6 years, 90% of of which still have BTC and are actively seeking to buy more as and when their funds permit

and i also buy more from time to time!

in fact i may of even been on this forum many years ago under i different handle, i can't remember , lol

this is a prediction thread and a prediction post !,

but i will update this post  every 2 or 3 months with the current price mutiplier to see if my numbers are any way near being in the ball park, as we go forward in time

edit for Sven, actually there sources and facts  > 1. look up the prices on the dates mentioned in the original post  > 2. then do the math ( you will need log calcs & to the power of etc to work it out), you will find the calcs are correct ( based on the historical start and end price data ) .

[Biodom]

Scenario 3: bitcoin splits into BTC (segwit deciphels) and BTU ("unlimited").
In 2017-18 price $600 on BTC chain, $300 on BTU chain; could be even lower.
By 2019 one of chains will wither more, another will gain more than proportionally, so it could be $900 BTC, $100 BTU or vice versa.
By 2020 maybe some appreciation or getting back to $1300 in a sum of chains.

[btc_zep]

Scenario 3: bitcoin splits into BTC (segwit deciphels) and BTU ("unlimited").
In 2017-18 price $600 on BTC chain, $300 on BTU chain; could be even lower.
By 2019 one of chains will wither more, another will gain more than proportionally, so it could be $900 BTC, $100 BTU or vice versa.
By 2020 maybe some appreciation or getting back to $1300 in a sum of chains.

wow: there's some doom...

my advice: sell every BTC you have now while the current prices are are much higher than your predicted future prices

[Biodom]

My long term price predictions are as follows:

Scenario 1


March 1st 2018 - $8,950 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2019 - $68,059 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2020 - $517,536 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2021 - $3,935,454 Per 1 BTC


How I arrived at the above numbers........

July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)

and on Dec 6th 2010 bitcoin price was $375.00


Time interval between both dates is 1604 days or 53 months

The computed doubling time for Bitcoin worked out to be 4.1 months between the two dates
ie every 4.1 months over the 53 months time period , the price doubled

here is a question: bacteria divides once in 20 min, how long would it take for the progeny of one bacteria to exceed the mass of Earth (providing that bacteria continues proliferation as described). Bacterial mass and Earth's mass are easily discernable/available.
Hint: not that long, but i like to hear your estimate  

Conclusion: projections of current trends into the future are prone to be erroneous...fast.
Cheers

[btc_zep]

My long term price predictions are as follows:

Scenario 1


March 1st 2018 - $8,950 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2019 - $68,059 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2020 - $517,536 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2021 - $3,935,454 Per 1 BTC


How I arrived at the above numbers........

July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)

and on Dec 6th 2010 bitcoin price was $375.00


Time interval between both dates is 1604 days or 53 months

The computed doubling time for Bitcoin worked out to be 4.1 months between the two dates
ie every 4.1 months over the 53 months time period , the price doubled

here is a question: bacteria divides once in 20 min, how long would it take for the progeny of one bacteria to exceed the mass of Earth (providing that bacteria continues proliferation as described). Bacterial mass and Earth's mass are easily discernable/available.
Hint: not that long, but i like to hear your estimate  

Conclusion: projections of current trends into the future are prone to be erroneous...fast.
Cheers

sorry, this is a Bitcoin speculation thread and post. If a bacteria timing question is of interest to you - work it out for yourself , its not really for a BTC price speculation thread.

[Biodom]

sorry, this is a Bitcoin speculation thread and post. If a bacteria timing question is of interest to you - work it out for yourself , its not really for a BTC price speculation thread.

well, up to the point...your speculation is based on numerology:a belief that if you attach an exponent to current numbers, you can predict what happens in the future, so all numbers that you state are simply not possible (bacteria example just illustrates the point).

[btc_zep]

sorry, this is a Bitcoin speculation thread and post. If a bacteria timing question is of interest to you - work it out for yourself , its not really for a BTC price speculation thread.

well, up to the point...your speculation is based on numerology:a belief that if you attach an exponent to current numbers, you can predict what happens in the future, so all numbers that you state are simply not possible (bacteria example just illustrates the point).

actually its based on Moore's Law , that over a given period of time things ( price, uptake,  the amount of transistors on a chip etc) double
then you need to work out the doubling time..

Moore's law works well with tech items

i'm not using numerology, i'm using good old fashioned mathamatics

and at the end of the day , its just my speculation of where the price MAY be in 1, 2 and 3 years time ( which will change from my original post as i will adjust my pricing points as the months go by as i get more (historical) pricing data)