the ultimate inflection point

[arepo]

the price seems to be holding its breath as every technical indicator known to man approaches 'neutral'...

something's coming. good luck bolls and bars. it's up to you to decide what happens next...

maybe i should add a poll? UP or DOWN?

-===-

it's quiet. toooo quiet.

-===-

EDIT: added to the OP

[1715497914]

1715497914

[1715497914]

1715497914

[1715497914]

1715497914

[wobber]

What do you think are the chances for each ?

[arepo]

it's quiet. toooo quiet.

-===-

[arepo]

What kind of TA is this?

i'm not wearing my TA hat right now, sorry.

this is me gauging market sentiment.

also, it's likely for there to be a large movement soon.

[BTC Books]

What kind of TA is this?

i'm not wearing my TA hat right now, sorry.

this is me gauging market sentiment.

also, it's likely for there to be a large movement soon.

Yeah - I think the technical stuff is non-operational at the moment.  And yeah, that hourly month chart is looking like: BOOM!

And there's all that cash sitting.  People hate having their cash sit around...

[Kazu]

What kind of TA is this?

i'm not wearing my TA hat right now, sorry.

this is me gauging market sentiment.

also, it's likely for there to be a large movement soon.

Yeah - I think the technical stuff is non-operational at the moment.  And yeah, that hourly month chart is looking like: BOOM!

And there's all that cash sitting.  People hate having their cash sit around...

I don't know about you, but I love having cash sit around.

[arepo]

What do you think are the chances for each ?

[puts on TA hat]

working on a model right now. the problem being this:

-===-

Very weak volume suggests bullish position to be dangerous.

There could be a bit more upside or some consolidation, but the hell dozen of resistances... sma200, upper weekly bb, middle daily bb and tons of others.  

[i hope lucif doesn't mind my reposting his work, i'm a big fan]

-===-

because of the short but strong bull run we just witnessed, if we break through these serious resistances it will signal a strong movement up, in continuation of this strong short-term trend. if we fail to break through the resistance it will be a signal to relieve the selling pressure (from the larger downtrend) that's been building up in the askwall. from my own analysis, it's nearly 50/50, with the bearish bullish scenario slightly more likely (approx 55-45).

based on the data in the next 24 hours, i can complete the model and i will make it available on the forums, along with mid-term projections.

edit: mistype

[arepo]

well, i feel like sharing some real analysis now. i guess i'll put it here.

-===-



-===-

trendline broken, swings the 50-50 call in favor of the bears. most likely outcomes: triangle with bearish downside breakout, or bulltrap breakout.

[just1nmc]

trendline broken, swings the 50-50 call in favor of the bears. most likely outcomes: triangle with bearish downside breakout, or bulltrap breakout.

Could we really expect it to continue that trend through the whole weekend though?

[Zooey]

well, i feel like sharing some real analysis now. i guess i'll put it here.

-===-



-===-

trendline broken, swings the 50-50 call in favor of the bears. most likely outcomes: triangle with bearish downside breakout, or bulltrap breakout.

wtf is that supposed to be.

[arepo]

[snipped chart]

trendline broken, swings the 50-50 call in favor of the bears. most likely outcomes: triangle with bearish downside breakout, or bulltrap breakout.

wtf is that supposed to be.

that is a trendline with 7 points of contact -- very robust. remember that price at this scale has a lot of noise in it...

-===-



-===-

it's also a projection that is unfolding as i type with a $10 push down, forming a top.

[Frozenlock]

"this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period."

What black magic is this?!?!

[BTC Books]

"this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period."

What black magic is this?!?!

It's just arepo's commentary on marriage.

[GraphicImpulse]

Now blood red day... not looking good friends

[mestar]

the price seems to be holding its breath as every technical indicator known to man approaches 'neutral'...

something's coming. good luck bolls and bars. it's up to you to decide what happens next...

maybe i should add a poll? UP or DOWN?

Neutral in bitcoin world means down.  If you take $20 million of visible bids on Mtgox, and 3600 daily coins at $120, this means enough fuel for the next 45 days if all miners decide to sell.  Or 90 days if half of them sell. 

[fabrizziop]

I think we're seeing a larger-scale dead cat bounce. After all, you can see that in the 2011 bubble we crashed to about 10$ to then go to 25$ then kinda "stabilize" at 16$. And you know what happened after that.

I think the real bottom is at 32$, although I have like 1.2 BTC (cashed out and withdrawn the rest) in a paper wallet.

[xorglub]

We'll see.
TA looks uncertain at this stage - I've seen both bullish and bearish interpretations of the current charts, both camps have very good and valid arguments, but as usual with TA everyone is right until they are wrong...

[seldon]

Now blood red day... not looking good friends

Similar to that blood red day just before the price doubled?

[arepo]

Similar to that blood red day just before the price doubled?

not similar at all. we were extremely oversold on the short term at that point. the reason that now is different is because the bulls have exhausted their energy for the time being and failed to break through the 38.2% resistance line.

[Miz4r]

It's weekend, you can't expect those resistances to break with these kind of volumes. Tomorrow we will know more, until then it's anyone's guess.