490,000 Avalon chips already ordered - 150T hashrate spike coming in August

[BitshireHashaway]

I don't think there will be a spike that large in August because of all the mining difficulties and such. However, I think the price will go up some for BTC. Worst case you can switch to ltc.

[1714121852]

1714121852

[1714121852]

1714121852

[1714121852]

1714121852

[1714121852]

1714121852

[CanaryInTheMine]

Check it out:

https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

China-based Forum Discussion:

http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2207

Difficulty will be increasing like you don't know.  Hope you understand how this mining will play out.  


Thoughts?
-Dalkore

the demise of GPU mining... same thing happened to CPU mining just recently... nice!!

[ecliptic]

What is the range of estimates for BFL?

assuming

1. Order limited (i.e. fill all 10,000-20,000+ orders)
2. Wafter limited (i.e. run out of ASIC chips)

I have heard that the upper theoretical limit is something like 1,000 - 2,000 THash/sec ordered from BFL.

also - difficulty follows price.  not the other way around.  we may well see a decrease in bitcoin price

indeed it has stabilized heavily and ceased it's gradual increase on average / massively chaotic pricing.  difficulty can skyrocket and price can do as it pleases.

[Amph]

KH-->MH-->GH-->PH/s.  We're going to run out of letters!  

SI Prefixes
Multiple   Prefix   Symbol   Example
1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (1018)   exa-   E   Eg (exagram)
1,000,000,000,000,000 (1015)   peta-   P   PJ (petajoule)
1,000,000,000,000 (1012)   tera-   T   TV (teravolt)
1,000,000,000 (109)   giga-   G   GW (gigawatt)
1,000,000 (106)   mega-   M   MHz (megahertz)
1,000 (103)   kilo-   k   kg (kilogram)
100 (102)   hecto-   h   hm (hectometer)
10 (101)   deka-   da   daN (dekanewton)
1/10 (10–1)   deci-   d   dC (decicoulomb)
1/100 (10–2)   centi-   c   cm (centimeter)
1/1,000 (10–3)   milli-   m   mm (millimeter)
1/1,000,000 (10–6)   micro-   (   (F (microfarad)
1/1,000,000,000 (10–9)   nano-   n   nm (nanometer)
1/1,000,000,000,000 (10–12)   pico-   p   ps (picosecond)
1/1,000,000,000,000,000 (10–15)   femto-   f   frad (femtoradian)
1/1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (10–18)   atto-   a   aT (attotesla)



When will we reach 1 Exa Hash per second?  EH/s <---- Eh? Canadian named it.

exa isn't the max

there is zetta
1x10^21
and yotta(above all)
1x10^24

[Bicknellski]

I know it goes BIGGER... what is the point?

Also... boards are getting designed for these chips as we speak so likely the only pinch point for most of the DIY chip crowd will be getting boards to chips. Will be a very very very interesting few months.

[Amph]

was just to complete the sentence
anyway...

[KS]

I know it goes BIGGER... what is the point?

Also... boards are getting designed for these chips as we speak so likely the only pinch point for most of the DIY chip crowd will be getting boards to chips. Will be a very very very interesting few months.

It's already interesting right now. The scams, the speculation!

[Bicknellski]

Ya definitely KS,

You got chips on order?

What board you think has the legs?

[KS]

Ya definitely KS,

You got chips on order?

What board you think has the legs?

Alas, I missed the ASIC-chips train

RIGHT NOW and for the next 6 months, FPGAs still have legs (assuming we reach 50 million difficulty in August, and assuming the BTC/USD will hover around 110 - given it does currently rise 1:1 with difficulty ATM, it might go higher, but the market might decide otherwise...), longer if ASICs are delivered more slowly. GPUs are still good, but it depends a lot on your utility bill.

I like KnCMiner's project, but I'm worried they won't be able to pull if off for lack of resources.

ASICMiner is shipping but their USB miners are way too expensive.

BKKcoins is doing a hell of a job on the Avalon boards, and he will open source the layout. Just for that, I'd put my money on him, but he's also depending on Avalon actually shipping the ASICs in a reasonable timeframe.

If 4 ppl in their garage can produce an ASIC, I'm thinking "hey, GROUP DESIGN". Why not? There are a number of companies selling SHA256 ASIC designs...

[Stack]

I understand why people are predicting consolidation of miners. The very fact that chips are priced in BTC is aggravating that monopoly (rich get richer scenario)

I don't disagree that many will quit mining, but I do disagree that hobby and general "normal" people mining will die. It won't

Why wouldn't a person have a few units stacked up in his shed, wired up to a solar panel, churning out a few blocks? it's the bitcoin equivalent of a savings account, it won't make the person rich and they understand that, but it's extra coin they wouldn't have otherwise. Not every miner is an enterpriser.

[Rampion]

I understand why people are predicting consolidation of miners. The very fact that chips are priced in BTC is aggravating that monopoly (rich get richer scenario)

I don't disagree that many will quit mining, but I do disagree that hobby and general "normal" people mining will die. It won't

Why wouldn't a person have a few units stacked up in his shed, wired up to a solar panel, churning out a few blocks? it's the bitcoin equivalent of a savings account, it won't make the person rich and they understand that, but it's extra coin they wouldn't have otherwise. Not every miner is an enterpriser.

Man: those chips/machines generate BTC, so it's fair and normal that they are priced in BTC. Just get your money to an exchange and buy BTC with your fiat, like we all do.

[Bicknellski]

I understand why people are predicting consolidation of miners. The very fact that chips are priced in BTC is aggravating that monopoly (rich get richer scenario)

I don't disagree that many will quit mining, but I do disagree that hobby and general "normal" people mining will die. It won't

Why wouldn't a person have a few units stacked up in his shed, wired up to a solar panel, churning out a few blocks? it's the bitcoin equivalent of a savings account, it won't make the person rich and they understand that, but it's extra coin they wouldn't have otherwise. Not every miner is an enterpriser.

Why people never factor in Altcoins surprises me. There will be many who see the value in smaller sized rigs or options and go after easier game.

[KS]

Why wouldn't a person have a few units stacked up in his shed, wired up to a solar panel, churning out a few blocks? it's the bitcoin equivalent of a savings account, it won't make the person rich and they understand that, but it's extra coin they wouldn't have otherwise. Not every miner is an enterpriser.

It looks to me that you assume solar panels are cheap/free. They're really not. Best to invest in cheap electricity, say in Seattle or in Canada.

[Viceroy]

Or Denver...   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=186457.0

[KS]

Or Denver...   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=186457.0

Sorry, I thought about adding Dallas or Houston, then I thought "yeah right, these cowboys...". Denver NEVER EVER entered my mind though. What can I say, I go to Amsterdam. Cultural bias? pfiuuu

[wrenchmonkey]

Solar panels aren't free, that's true. But many people already have them. In many states, net metering laws allow the power company to keep any surplus energy after a year. So it's use it or lose it. Some people are already producing a surplus that is just going to the power company's pockets. This is just one example of how somebody could use bitcoin to harvest capital that is otherwise lost to them.

There aren't very many options that can directly turn electricity into money, so if you have a surplus of electricity, a bitcoin mining system is a change machine. 

[KS]

Solar panels aren't free, that's true. But many people already have them. In many states, net metering laws allow the power company to keep any surplus energy after a year. So it's use it or lose it. Some people are already producing a surplus that is just going to the power company's pockets. This is just one example of how somebody could use bitcoin to harvest capital that is otherwise lost to them.

There aren't very many options that can directly turn electricity into money, so if you have a surplus of electricity, a bitcoin mining system is a change machine.  

Sure. Or they should have invested less in the solar panels and put the difference in BTC. Dollars to your cents

[milly6]

Solar panels aren't free, that's true. But many people already have them. In many states, net metering laws allow the power company to keep any surplus energy after a year. So it's use it or lose it. Some people are already producing a surplus that is just going to the power company's pockets. This is just one example of how somebody could use bitcoin to harvest capital that is otherwise lost to them.

There aren't very many options that can directly turn electricity into money, so if you have a surplus of electricity, a bitcoin mining system is a change machine.  

Sure. Or they should have invested less in the solar panels and put the difference in BTC. Dollars to your cents

Investing in solar panels but not using them? Thats kinda like buying carbon offset credits. And hey, if you have a farm hooked up to that "free" energy, its hundreds of dollars to your dollars.

[Twh]

What is the range of estimates for BFL?

assuming

1. Order limited (i.e. fill all 10,000-20,000+ orders)
2. Wafter limited (i.e. run out of ASIC chips)

I have heard that the upper theoretical limit is something like 1,000 - 2,000 THash/sec ordered from BFL.

also - difficulty follows price.  not the other way around.  we may well see a decrease in bitcoin price

indeed it has stabilized heavily and ceased it's gradual increase on average / massively chaotic pricing.  difficulty can skyrocket and price can do as it pleases.

BFL already seems to be mining with all the units they have except for the very few they decide to send off to keep up the illusion that they are actually delivering. I'd imagine they will start shipping larger amounts at some point (when they have another large amount finished that they can use for mining), but I doubt that BFL's units are going to affect difficulty seriously any time soon.

As for price, the issue is that while we only had GPU and FGPA miners, minimal price (assuming at least some demand) was set by the power costs, and the massive efficiency of the ASICs makes mining profitable (not factoring in the purchase price, only power cost) even at really extreme values, say you bought Avalon chips and put them on a board, you'd still have some small profit if the price was some $15/btc and difficulty at 100m, so the ASICs really don't provide any reason for a price increase. Not to mention KnCMiner units, which are supposedly going to be even more power efficient, assuming they deliver some time this year.
Ultimately, price is dictated by supply/demand, and for the time being the supply will not increase; demand is dictated by whether or not Gox is having issues and the latest related announcement the US makes.

[erk]

What is the range of estimates for BFL?

assuming

1. Order limited (i.e. fill all 10,000-20,000+ orders)
2. Wafter limited (i.e. run out of ASIC chips)

I have heard that the upper theoretical limit is something like 1,000 - 2,000 THash/sec ordered from BFL.

also - difficulty follows price.  not the other way around.  we may well see a decrease in bitcoin price

indeed it has stabilized heavily and ceased it's gradual increase on average / massively chaotic pricing.  difficulty can skyrocket and price can do as it pleases.

BFL already seems to be mining with all the units they have except for the very few they decide to send off to keep up the illusion that they are actually delivering. I'd imagine they will start shipping larger amounts at some point (when they have another large amount finished that they can use for mining), but I doubt that BFL's units are going to affect difficulty seriously any time soon.

As for price, the issue is that while we only had GPU and FGPA miners, minimal price (assuming at least some demand) was set by the power costs, and the massive efficiency of the ASICs makes mining profitable (not factoring in the purchase price, only power cost) even at really extreme values, say you bought Avalon chips and put them on a board, you'd still have some small profit if the price was some $15/btc and difficulty at 100m, so the ASICs really don't provide any reason for a price increase. Not to mention KnCMiner units, which are supposedly going to be even more power efficient, assuming they deliver some time this year.
Ultimately, price is dictated by supply/demand, and for the time being the supply will not increase; demand is dictated by whether or not Gox is having issues and the latest related announcement the US makes.

7 posts and you are already an expert on BFL with inside knowledge of their mining operation, please tell us more, I haven't had a good laugh for a while.