490,000 Avalon chips already ordered - 150T hashrate spike coming in August

[Viceroy]

there is no discount when buying volume, the only to resell is to mount the chip and resell the package.

[1715041913]

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[1715041913]

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[1715041913]

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[minternj]

Oh, this gets interesting. I didn't expect this amount of sales in such a short timewindow.

How many purchasers do you think are speculators just hoping to resell their in-hand chips at a markup?

Considering the max order is 200,000 chips, I feel at the moment it doesn't seem likely they will "sell-out" and turn into a mark-up situation.

If you believe that 200k is the max chip order then these transactions don't make any sense and should be discounted.

[Viceroy]

the max single order is 200k chips... just need more than one order.  the number of chips they are offering is infinite.

[Bogart]

Oh, this gets interesting. I didn't expect this amount of sales in such a short timewindow.

How many purchasers do you think are speculators just hoping to resell their in-hand chips at a markup?

Considering the max order is 200,000 chips, I feel at the moment it doesn't seem likely they will "sell-out" and turn into a mark-up situation.

I'm saying that the value of the mark-up will come from having them in-hand for immediate shipment vs ordering from the Avalon store and waiting on production.

[Minor Miner]

What are your thoughts on Batch II not even moving yet and complete silence from avalon?

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

So for the average (non-ASIC owner) miner, what does this mean?

[minternj]

the max single order is 200k chips... just need more than one order.  the number of chips they are offering is infinite.

All this is based on what? more speculation?

[PuertoLibre]

Oh, this gets interesting. I didn't expect this amount of sales in such a short timewindow.

Now it would be a golden time for BFL to start shipping if they don't want cancelled orders flooding in like crazy.

According to BFL, they don't have a refund issue.  I know, I laughed too when I heard him say that.

[Viceroy]

So for the average (non-ASIC owner) miner, what does this mean?

I'm debating whether this kills bitcoin or not.

[Viceroy]

the max single order is 200k chips... just need more than one order.  the number of chips they are offering is infinite.

All this is based on what? more speculation?

it's based upon what they are selling in their store... I am not speculating.

[PuertoLibre]

So for the average (non-ASIC owner) miner, what does this mean?

It means GPU miners will be pushed out of BitCoin mining....Unless the extreme difficulty leads to each BitCoin being worth alot more (1,000 USD per BitCoin by summer).

If that happens, then expect the "new normal" to be people buying BitCoins in fractions up 8 decimal places. Personally I think people should focus on storing and increasing their current BitCoin Stockpiles.

If you do, it may very well keep you padded with enough cash to transition to the next generation of ASIC's. Maybe...

[minternj]

Where on the store did it say they were offering infinite chips? funny that you guys throw around these figures as facts.

edit: ok i concede that chip supply is  technically infinite since you can still order it.

That is until end of 2013

"2. these chips will be available until at least end of the year, 2013."

source:
http://store.avalon-asics.com/?product=avalon-asic-chips-10000

I still say wallet total does not mean jack shit for the amount of chips bought. All speculation, could be any number of reasons for the BT to be in there. Only avalon knows.

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

So for the average (non-ASIC owner) miner, what does this mean?

It means GPU miners will be pushed out of BitCoin mining....Unless the extreme difficulty leads to each BitCoin being worth alot more (1,000 USD per BitCoin by summer).

If that happens, then expect the "new normal" to be people buying BitCoins in fractions up 8 decimal places. Personally I think people should focus on storing and increasing their current BitCoin Stockpiles.

If you do, it may very well keep you padded with enough cash to transition to the next generation of ASIC's. Maybe...

I'll be doing this, yes. But unfortunately not much. And the current price of ASICs is waaay overblown considering how much the difficulty will rise in one or two retargets. I can tell you right now, working 10 years every day of my life I still won't have even 50k.

What's happening right now, is that only the elite will mine Bitcoin.

[PuertoLibre]

Luckily there are a ton of other less mature currencies which will allow newcomers to enter the markets. I doubt mining will end. It will just shift from one Coin to another. (IMO)

My [imaginary] crystal ball tells me that the biggest challenge to the Future of Coin Mining will be from governments. BitCoin needs to detach itself from the banking system. MtGox, BTC-e, BitFloor etc, will need to find alternatives to converting currency while side stepping the current fiat infrastructure.

Someone will eventually have to create a feedback system that is reliable and tied to a persons real or virtual permanent identity. A system that can keep tabs on decentralized transactions and multi-currency conversions without the direct aide of banks.

I think there are some steps in that direction, but they seem spotty at the moment. I don't think ASICs will be the end of anything anymore. It will simply push Virtual Currencies to be alot more distributed and flexible.

[MWNinja]

These chips really aren't much more power efficient than FPGA. I'm afraid they will be obsolete by the time they get mounted on PCBs.

[aqrulesms]

Luckily there are a ton of other less mature currencies which will allow newcomers to enter the markets. I doubt mining will end. It will just shift from one Coin to another. (IMO)

Aka Litecoin? ASICs will not be happening for Litecoin for a LONG time. It already takes up 1.5 - 2 GB of memory for just around 500-600 khash.

[aqrulesms]

These chips really aren't much more power efficient than FPGA. I'm afraid they will be obsolete by the time they get mounted on PCBs.

They are very power efficient given that the amount of hashes/joule is very good. No idea what you're thinking.

[Viceroy]

What's happening right now, is that only the elite will mine Bitcoin.

agreed.  (see my sig)

[PuertoLibre]

Luckily there are a ton of other less mature currencies which will allow newcomers to enter the markets. I doubt mining will end. It will just shift from one Coin to another. (IMO)

Aka Litecoin? ASICs will not be happening for Litecoin for a LONG time. It already takes up 1.5 - 2 GB of memory for just around 500-600 khash.

I don't think LiteCoin will be that important in the long term. If anything it [LiteCoin] will be a cheap way of converting and moving funds from one place to another.

Check my original post as I elucidated a bit more on what I think will happen next. I think the future will be what BitInstant is now. Except it will be on an individual level and minus the high fee rates for exchanging or converting transactions. I think the long term future (or should I say hope) will be someone writing an easy to use interface which will look at regional registrations.

Some individuals within those registrations will have ties to the "old fashioned" bank accounts. Others will have ties to different currencies, yet others to different forms of sending money (Western union, A specific Credit Union, Interkassa etc), yet others will have the capability to convert it into physical cash at some distant location etc.

I hope the future takes the control of money from regulated institutions and places it unto individuals with connections and a variety of methods of honoring that transaction. If you want your BitCoins (if it exists by then) denominated in 3 different currencies and in addition 2 types of money orders and 1 physical cash transaction to someone in another country, it can be done via this yet to be built interface.

I hope this is where it is going. The current system is incredibly vulnerable and subject to being seized.

The TeraHash issue is going to be pretty insignificant compared to a sudden future closure of MtGox by one or more governments.

[John Self]

Difficulty will be increasing like you don't know.

So in August we will have many of those:

Relevant interview with BFL buyers:
http://youtu.be/_ERE4uiufqE