Gavin to Satoshi, 2010 -- "SOMEBODY will try to mess up the network (...)"

[dinofelis]

hashing power is only a signpost, a best guess, as to what the consensus really is.

I said this somewhere else, but defining the word "consensus" without having it referring to a genuine phenomenon, is a useless exercise.  Consensus is a phenomenon.  Not something you can define as "what should be" or "the will of the people" or any other abstract definition, devoid of relationship to reality.

Consensus is the observable phenomenon that a lot of different people, outside of any hierarchical constraint, use the same rule set to come to the same data set.  In the case of a crypto currency, this is even more amazing in the sense that the rule set, and the data set, are not what is the most profitable for each of the participants.  But nevertheless, the *phenomenon* of people settling to the same protocol, and the same block chain, is the "consensus" phenomenon.  It has two aspects.  You could say that it has some "ergodicity property".  The consensus phenomenon applies just as well to the "different participants at a given time", as "over time".  The phenomenon over time is called "immutability". 

ETC failed to gain majority hash rate, because it failed to gain majority market share, not the other way around....

I don't deny this.  But now, you cannot talk any more about "majority", because ETC and ETH are different currencies, different protocols, different block chains and different users.   Whether the market share of ETC is bigger or smaller than ETH does not matter any more than whether ETH market share is bigger or smaller than bitcoin's or litecoin's.  They are different crypto currencies, with different consensus, different protocol, different block chain.

Mining always adjusts, in the end, to profitability.  That is true after a hard fork from a single currency, but it is true also between totally different currencies (at least, if the mining is compatible with the investment in hardware).  Mining hash rate is normally proportional to (block reward per unit of time) * (market price of coin) / difficulty cost price, over different currencies with compatible mining in the short time, and over all crypto currencies in the long term (after mining hardware can be written off).

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[dinofelis]

Thank you. I have been trying to make this point for ages, always falling on deaf ears. It is nice to know that at least someone else gets it.

It took me some while to understand that too.  But once you see it, it is quite obvious in fact.   I guess people are mentally locked in on this dogma, because they have been making decisions based upon it, which would bring too much doubt and regret if they allowed themselves to understand this.

It blinds them to two aspects of bitcoin: the fact that true centralization is mining pool centralization (the deciders of the block chain building), and that this centralization is already well advanced ; and the fact that bitcoin is going to lose its status as a currency to become a reserve currency because of an erroneous argument over the importance of non-mining nodes and the cost of disk space versus the emerging fee market and the economies of scale that proof of work induces.  

I think it is too late now to change this.  Block size now being an economic parameter determining fee market, the consensus mechanism will most probably make that this cannot be changed any more, especially because the miners are the ones that are on the receiving side of the fees.  It could still be changed, if mining centralization is sufficiently advanced, but I don't think that that is the case for the moment, to come to an oligarch consensus without sufficient dissidents.

As to the fact that "important bitcoin people" could fail to understand this aspect, there are only two conclusions: they understand much less about the dynamics of the system than one would expect them to have ; or they have a good reason to pretend not to understand it.

"if your income depends on you not understanding something, chances for you to understand it are low"

[AngryDwarf]

seems dinofelis is on a scripted mission

objective try to brainwash sheep into thinking nodes are not important.
-snip-

On this rare occasion, I definitely agree with you. Their rhetoric is quite obvious at this point.

Thank you both for reminding me about the importance of nodes. I almost swallowed the logic.

This is remarkable as a brainwashing, isn't it.  A long, detailed explanation is swiped away with a single reminder of the Dogma without the slightest bit of logic.  Learn to think for yourself!

Yes. I am a fallible human being. Fortunately I am listening to statements from a variety of human beings and my bitcoin knowledge has improved dramatically recently. If someone successfully points out my misunderstandings, I adjust my thinking. If someone says I am stupid I might have to look it up to see why he thinks I am being stupid because they have provided no information. People making well reasoned arguments are great discussion and knowledge contributors, but they still need to be examined to see if they are ulterior motive driven.

So lets say 100% of miners have good connections with themselves (not relying on incompatible node relay), and start producing bigger blocks. The other nodes are now unsynced. Nodes (which included exchanges) will now have to upgrade. Bitcoin has successfully forked. The old fork is essentially dead, unless someone thinks their CPU's/GPU's/USB asics can move it on to the next difficulty adjustment.

I probably need to thing more about the situation involved where there is a split in mining power. Here, user nodes could have a say in the outcome of what is considered bitcoin, and what is considered bitcoin 2.

[Lauda]

So lets say 100% of miners have good connections with themselves (not relying on incompatible node relay), and start producing bigger blocks. The other nodes are now unsynced. Nodes (which included exchanges) will now have to upgrade. Bitcoin has successfully forked. The old fork is essentially dead, unless someone thinks their CPU's/GPU's/USB asics can move it on to the next difficulty adjustment.

I probably need to thing more about the situation involved where there is a split in mining power. Here, user nodes could have a say in the outcome of what is considered bitcoin, and what is considered bitcoin 2.

Nope. In this scenario, the miners would have created a worthless altcoin. This would be seen a malicious act, and an emergency POW change HF would be deployed. Miners would have millions worth of useless equipment.
Even mister franky knows the importance of consensus. Miners deciding things on their own != consensus.

[AngryDwarf]

So lets say 100% of miners have good connections with themselves (not relying on incompatible node relay), and start producing bigger blocks. The other nodes are now unsynced. Nodes (which included exchanges) will now have to upgrade. Bitcoin has successfully forked. The old fork is essentially dead, unless someone thinks their CPU's/GPU's/USB asics can move it on to the next difficulty adjustment.

I probably need to thing more about the situation involved where there is a split in mining power. Here, user nodes could have a say in the outcome of what is considered bitcoin, and what is considered bitcoin 2.

Nope. In this scenario, the miners would have created a worthless altcoin. This would be seen a malicious act, and an emergency POW change HF would be deployed. Miners would have millions worth of useless equipment.
Even mister franky knows the importance of consensus. Miners deciding things on their own != consensus.

But is it not the case that it would only be a worthless alt coin if the exchanges do not upgrade their node to the same protocol. At this point exchanges would be trading worthless IOU's, since nobody can send them UTXO's, and they can't withdraw there coins. The old block chain has no hash rate in the case where 100% of miners are creating bigger blocks.

The emergency POW hard fork you talk about would have to be a new CPU mining algorithm with reset difficulty.

Thoughts?

[Lauda]

But is it not the case that it would only be a worthless alt coin if the exchanges do not upgrade their node to the same protocol. At this point exchanges would be trading worthless IOU's, since nobody can send them UTXO's, and they can't withdraw there coins. The old block chain has no hash rate in the case where 100% of miners are creating bigger blocks.

No, it is the exact opposite. The ecosystem would definitely be in a state of chaos until the HF is deployed, but the miner's chain would be the worthless one. They can move their coins around sure, but since nobody accepts them they are effectively worthless.

The emergency POW hard fork you talk about would have to be a new CPU mining algorithm with reset difficulty.

Thoughts?

It is likely that there is already a emergency POW change HF ready for deployment (if needed).

[AngryDwarf]

It is likely that there is already a emergency POW change HF ready for deployment (if needed).

So why are planned hard forks considered dangerous, but emergency hard forks are OK?

[Lauda]

It is likely that there is already a emergency POW change HF ready for deployment (if needed).

So why are planned hard forks considered dangerous, but emergency hard forks are OK?

The former has a chance of splitting the network if done without consensus. The latter is only a measure that is supposed to *save* the network in extreme situations (e.g. an attack as described). Don't fall for this rhetoric that non-mining nodes have zero importance.
Keep in mind that various (both state and corporate) sponsored actors have long infiltrated all Bitcoin communities for nefarious purposes.

[Xester]

It is likely that there is already a emergency POW change HF ready for deployment (if needed).

So why are planned hard forks considered dangerous, but emergency hard forks are OK?

It maybe emergency hard forks and hard forks they all are the same. The same system, the same protocol and so what is the difference between the two there is nothing really. The difference is only is the time of application, the first one is on a regular and normal basis and the other one would only be used during emergency cases or as last resort. But if it is really necessary for hard forks to come in and settle bitcoin problems and issues then that is no problem with me.

[dinofelis]

People making well reasoned arguments are great discussion and knowledge contributors, but they still need to be examined to see if they are ulterior motive driven.

Normally, a logical argument stands or falls by itself, and has no bearing to its author.  That said, I have no motive.  I'm not involved in crypto, apart from studying it.  I discuss crypto essentially to improve my own understanding of it, which is my only motive.  

A mathematical proof can be checked by itself, just as a cryptographic proof.  In the same way, a logical argument, even though not watertight, is of the same nature.  The arguments I'm putting forward are exactly those that convince ME of what I'm saying.  If you can punch a hole in it, you might convince ME that I'm wrong.  I would then be grateful.

So lets say 100% of miners have good connections with themselves (not relying on incompatible node relay), and start producing bigger blocks. The other nodes are now unsynced. Nodes (which included exchanges) will now have to upgrade. Bitcoin has successfully forked. The old fork is essentially dead, unless someone thinks their CPU's/GPU's/USB asics can move it on to the next difficulty adjustment.

Yes.  I think that is logical, no ?  If you are waiting for blocks that are not mined, your node simply stops.  And if you try to mine them yourself, you *become a miner*, and you've made a new coin.

I probably need to thing more about the situation involved where there is a split in mining power. Here, user nodes could have a say in the outcome of what is considered bitcoin, and what is considered bitcoin 2.

I've been following the ETC/ETH split as it unrolled, because it was an eye-opener for me.  It was a fascinating time to follow.  I don't know if you "were there".  I had bought 5 ETH to play with a month before or so, and then found myself being owner of ETC and ETH.

When there are TWO coins, that is a full hard fork, the end result is determined by the MARKET.  If the market makes an obvious choice for one or the other, one might die ; but ETC survived on less than 10% of mining power and market cap.   This is probably why people talk of 95% (hopeful) consensus before forking if you do not want 2 prongs.  

That said, bitcoin is nastier in this respect than ethereum, because ethereum, like most more modern alt coins, have continuously adjustable difficulty ; while bitcoin has these 14 days which can be very, very long if your hash rate available is lower.  So if a hard fork keeps this aspect of bitcoin (a hard fork can change ANYTHING, so just as well the difficulty adjustment), and you are left with only 10% of the hash rate, that branch will have a hard time surviving, with a block only every 100 minutes on average, and 5 months for the next difficulty adjustment.  So most probably, bitcoin has a build-in forking protection unless the forkers adapt this.

[dinofelis]

No, it is the exact opposite. The ecosystem would definitely be in a state of chaos until the HF is deployed, but the miner's chain would be the worthless one. They can move their coins around sure, but since nobody accepts them they are effectively worthless.

Why do you think an exchange would forego all the gains to be made in exchanging these coins ?  If I were the CEO of an exchange, I would HURRY LIKE CRAZY to be the first exchange to line up both coins.  Because there will be a massive trading back and fro between them, and each time, I take a trading fee.  They have seen the example with ETC/ETH.

Why are you denying what has already happened elsewhere ?

[dinofelis]

Nope. In this scenario, the miners would have created a worthless altcoin. This would be seen a malicious act, and an emergency POW change HF would be deployed. Miners would have millions worth of useless equipment.
Even mister franky knows the importance of consensus. Miners deciding things on their own != consensus.

That's exactly what the ethereum foundation thought.

[Carlton Banks]

Even mister franky knows the importance of consensus. Miners deciding things on their own != consensus.

If only Franky could use the word so that it actually means consensus, instead of constantly repeating-repeating-repeating what he wishes it means

(Franky tells us 50x times daily that consensus is where everyone disagrees on something   )

[jbreher]

Don't fall for this rhetoric that non-mining nodes have zero importance.

It is not that non-mining nodes have zero importance. Indeed, they are important in that they signal the preferences of their users. Non-mining nodes have essentially zero power.

[jonald_fyookball]

No, it is the exact opposite. The ecosystem would definitely be in a state of chaos until the HF is deployed, but the miner's chain would be the worthless one. They can move their coins around sure, but since nobody accepts them they are effectively worthless.

Why do you think an exchange would forego all the gains to be made in exchanging these coins ?  If I were the CEO of an exchange, I would HURRY LIKE CRAZY to be the first exchange to line up both coins.  Because there will be a massive trading back and fro between them, and each time, I take a trading fee.  They have seen the example with ETC/ETH.

Why are you denying what has already happened elsewhere ?

well...yeah.

exchanges will list the lowliest of the shitcoins and it costs them nothing.  Obviously they would list both coins in a bitcoin split.

[dinofelis]

Don't fall for this rhetoric that non-mining nodes have zero importance.

It is not that non-mining nodes have zero importance. Indeed, they are important in that they signal the preferences of their users. Non-mining nodes have essentially zero power.

Amen.  That said, it is a very non-significative voting, it is rather like a polling that can be highly biased.  At least, ethereum tried to set up a kind of proof-of-stake VOTE to find out what would happen.  When they were near 90%-10% they thought that they could go ahead.

The nodes "polling" can be influenced by 1) people just automatically updating  2) people setting up a lot of Sybil nodes to influence the outcome  3) people having nodes not necessarily those who will weight in on the market.  I have a node, soon 2, I don't trade, I only do "bitcoin as a currency" if I want to buy something (less and less the case).

[franky1]

hashing power is only a signpost, a best guess, as to what the consensus really is.

I said this somewhere else, but defining the word "consensus" without having it referring to a genuine phenomenon, is a useless exercise.  Consensus is a phenomenon.  Not something you can define as "what should be" or "the will of the people" or any other abstract definition, devoid of relationship to reality.

bitcoins consensus, is that of the nodes first pools second.

CORE (not pools, not BU not some random guy,, but core) BYPASSED bitcoins built in consensus. and literally handed the vote to only pools.

this does not mean pools(hashing power) have the ultimate vote on bitcoin...
just the ultimate vote on pushing segwit into taking over bitcoin

segwit is a total rewrite that then makes it even easier to bypass the real bitcoin consensus by making it even easier to keep giving pools the vote (by going soft)

[dinofelis]

bitcoins consensus, is that of the nodes first pools second.

Then why is there "proof of work" ?
And why is nobody Sybil-attacking the node count ?

If "nodes are the boss" and it is damn easy to outnumber the existing nodes with a tiny fraction of the amount of money it takes to be a miner making a block, why are all these stupid Chinese mining, and are they not setting up whole datacenters of millions of nodes ?

Why do you even think that Satoshi used proof of work ?

Forget consensus as the flower-power-like concept of "what the loving, honest community really wants and desires" or some other thing.  Consensus is the phenomenon that people use the same protocol and the same chain amongst themselves, and over time (immutability).

[franky1]

bitcoins consensus, is that of the nodes first pools second.

Then why is there "proof of work" ?
And why is nobody Sybil-attacking the node count ?

If "nodes are the boss" and it is damn easy to outnumber the existing nodes with a tiny fraction of the amount of money it takes to be a miner making a block, why are all these stupid Chinese mining, and are they not setting up whole datacenters of millions of nodes ?

Why do you even think that Satoshi used proof of work ?

because people can spot a sybil attack and actively ban nodes running on things like amazon servers.
there have been attempts in the past. and people spot them.

as for PoW.
node=boss
pools=secretary

if pools do not show good proof of their work, and collated data that comply to nodes rules, nodes reject it.
and guess what. pools "work" does get rejected quite often
https://blockchain.info/orphaned-blocks

a pool could have 99% of the hashrate.. but if it only had 1% of node count. does not mean the pool changes the nodes rules. it just means SUPER HIGH clusterf*ck of orphans.

this is why 50% of pools are undecided about certain bitcoin plans. because they are unofficially waiting to see what nodes support, to reduce orphan risks.

[Lauda]

Why do you think an exchange would forego all the gains to be made in exchanging these coins ?  If I were the CEO of an exchange, I would HURRY LIKE CRAZY to be the first exchange to line up both coins.  Because there will be a massive trading back and fro between them, and each time, I take a trading fee.  They have seen the example with ETC/ETH.

Why are you denying what has already happened elsewhere ?

Anyone with any kind of morals is not going to list it on regulated exchanges such as Bitstamp or alternatively, they're going to list it as an altcoin called BTU.

-snip-
(Franky tells us 50x times daily that consensus is where everyone disagrees on something    )

Wait, didn't someone else start indirectly spreading this recently as well?

The nodes "polling" can be influenced by 1) people just automatically updating

There is no automatic updating.

2) people setting up a lot of Sybil nodes to influence the outcome 

Mitigated by the existence of older nodes.

3) people having nodes not necessarily those who will weight in on the market.  I have a node, soon 2, I don't trade, I only do "bitcoin as a currency" if I want to buy something (less and less the case).

Relevance?

because people can spot a sybil attack and actively ban nodes running on things like amazon servers.
there have been attempts in the past. and people spot them.

Correct. Even you acknowledge the role that non-mining nodes play.