When will Butterfly Labs (BFL) run out of money?

[grue]

they'll be fine. the recent demo unit hype will ensure plenty of preorders.

Prerecords of what? YouTube Videos channel or line in the queue for next year eventually?
But as i already told they will probably will not run out of money in that case

see:

Great video, made me purchase 2 x 5GHs ;-)

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[creativex]

they'll be fine. the recent demo unit hype will ensure plenty of preorders.

Prerecords of what? YouTube Videos channel or line in the queue for next year eventually?
But as i already told they will probably will not run out of money in that case

see:

Great video, made me purchase 2 x 5GHs ;-)

A Zork avatar LOL

[Frizz23]

Which means, besides the Mini Rig Casings, BFL can also throw away all their Single and Little Single casings, PCBs, fans and heatsinks. Or maybe reuse a few of them for the "new" Jalapeno2.0.

Which means: More (of our pre order) money down the drain ...

Seems like Josh just confirmed my conjecture:

BFL_Josh - "While I appreciate the sentiment and I would gladly act on it if I could, the simple fact of the matter is we can not ship anything but Jalapenos this week and next week. We simply do not have the boards and cases to ship anything but a Jalapeno. We aren't intentionally holding back Little Singles, Singles and Minirigs. The Jalapeno 5 GH/s miner is the only thing we have both the boards, chips and cases for at this time. We had to push all units up one level, so the mining device formerly known as the Jalapeno is now in the Little Single/Single case and the little Single/Single are moving to a larger home. The minirig is moving to a smaller home and will have less hashrate per unit, which also necessitates a case redesign and will use the new Single/Little Single boards as well, hence we have none at the moment.

The new Single case should be in tomorrow and the boards sometime next week, hopefully".

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/2003-petition-get-butterfly-labs-attention.html#post26648

[HjerterEss]

Jalapeno, Minirig, singles etc are all built on the same board. I can`t help but think that they are running a ponzi scheme where they can only buy new chips when they recieve money. Or use the chips they own to rather mine themselves to cash in big bucks while just pushing out small batches of Jalapenos to keep most cards to themselves. After all, they are sitting on a gold mine...

The PCB
http://mineforeman.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Bare1.png

1 ASIC chip, 4.5GH/s = Jalapeno
http://mineforeman.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Jalapeno1.png

Now a complete board with 4 ASIC chips that will soon be a 30 GH/s Bitcoin Miner (BitForce Little Single SC)
http://mineforeman.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/LittleSingle1.png

And finally we see a fully populated board with 8 ASIC chips that will be used both in the 60 GH/s Bitcoin Miner (BitForce Single SC) and the 1,500 GH/s Bitcoin Miner (BitForce Mini Rig SC).
http://mineforeman.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Minirig1.png

[computerparts]

Jalapeno, Minirig, singles etc are all built on the same board. I can`t help but think that they are running a ponzi scheme where they can only buy new chips when they recieve money. Or use the chips they own to rather mine themselves to cash in big bucks while just pushing out small batches of Jalapenos to keep most cards to themselves. After all, they are sitting on a gold mine...

The PCB


1 ASIC chip, 4.5GH/s = Jalapeno


Now a complete board with 4 ASIC chips that will soon be a 30 GH/s Bitcoin Miner (BitForce Little Single SC)


And finally we see a fully populated board with 8 ASIC chips that will be used both in the 60 GH/s Bitcoin Miner (BitForce Single SC) and the 1,500 GH/s Bitcoin Miner (BitForce Mini Rig SC).

Those aren't the redesigned boards are they?

[HjerterEss]

I have no idea. Found them here: http://mineforeman.com/2013/03/12/butterfly-labs-photos-of-asic-chips-on-boards/
Its from 1 month ago.

[computerparts]

Definitely not the redesigned boards then.

[Bitsaurus]

The new boards are at least 1 week out according to Josh, so maybe they'll show up some time in June.




















I mean June 2013.  June 2014 is the redesigned case.

[Lgetty17]

Considering they have a working chip and the amount of orders they have been bringing in before they even had a working product, they would have no problem finding additional VC funding at this point. A start up project being literally sold out before you even have a prototype is almost unheard of.

Had the chip on the other hand been a bust and needed a complete redesign then this discussion would have been a lot more interesting. The only thing atm that could be a bit worrisome is the actual cost of making each pre-order unit, this is more about how fast they can make back the initial RnD costs though.

Uhhhhh... Is this not what happened? They have 5000 chips that are not at power spec, and have to wait to get more from the foundry. I'm pretty sure they're switching from 65n to 110..

[Gator-hex]

Considering they have a working chip and the amount of orders they have been bringing in before they even had a working product, they would have no problem finding additional VC funding at this point. A start up project being literally sold out before you even have a prototype is almost unheard of.

Had the chip on the other hand been a bust and needed a complete redesign then this discussion would have been a lot more interesting. The only thing atm that could be a bit worrisome is the actual cost of making each pre-order unit, this is more about how fast they can make back the initial RnD costs though.

Uhhhhh... Is this not what happened? They have 5000 chips that are not at power spec, and have to wait to get more from the foundry. I'm pretty sure they're switching from 65n to 110..

Avalon is 110nm

BFL was always been working on 65nm

This is the second time they've produced the ASICs, they already rejected the first batch because the ran too hot and then had them repackaged.
The old ASIC had a plastic package, the new one has a copper package to improve thermal conductivity.

We're now waiting for the second edition of the motherboard, the original one didn't have strong enough power regulators, to handle the chips unexpected power requirements. The old motherboard are still going to be used to produce the first batch of Bitforce 5's though.

It is worrying how hard they are advertising for new customers, the doubling of prices, the high order number 60k, and how few Bitforce 5's shipped from 6 wafers.

It looks like a company that needs more cash.

[Frizz23]

I'd say, given the recent media frenzy that they started, and the "all sales are final" agreements the pre order customers had to accept, they run out of money even before October.

[hammurabi]

Price increase is probably to make folks think twice before ordering a refund.

[erk]

Avalon is 110nm

BFL was always been working on 65nm

This is the second time they've produced the ASICs, they already rejected the first batch because the ran too hot and then had them repackaged.
The old ASIC had a plastic package, the new one has a copper package to improve thermal conductivity.

We're now waiting for the second edition of the motherboard, the original one didn't have strong enough power regulators, to handle the chips unexpected power requirements. The old motherboard are still going to be used to produce the first batch of Bitforce 5's though.

It is worrying how hard they are advertising for new customers, the doubling of prices, the high order number 60k, and how few Bitforce 5's shipped from 6 wafers.

It looks like a company that needs more cash.

I doubt if BFL need cash, unless they have been bleeding it dry, they will have received several $million in pre-paid orders over the last 10mths.

[Viceroy]

well you do realize that creating an testing a 65 nm ASIC can consume millions of dollars pretty quickly, like within months, right?

And if they had to send stuff back (because they designed it poorly not because of manufacturer defect) that cost them a couple hundred grand right there.  Yea?

[smoothie]

Nope obviously he doesn't realize that.

All he sees is "Millions of $". 

[jhansen858]

Please describe the ASIC design process in detail and the associated costs?  I would like to learn how you can burn through several million dollars in a few months.

[Viceroy]

you can look that up on Wikipedia.  estimates to produce a 65 nm ASIC easily run 2 to 5 million.  if I had an rtl I could get the Avalon reproduced in less than six months, but that is not a very sophisticated chip.

[Frizz23]

Please describe the ASIC design process in detail and the associated costs?  I would like to learn how you can burn through several million dollars in a few months.

Oh that's quite simple: Just ask them BFL Cowboys how they did it.

- always blindly trust your subcontractors
- do no Project Management at all
- waste money on (unnecessary) bullet runs
- go mass production (50.000 chips), then do a prototype, then figure out your design is borked, then redesign, ...
- make tons of boxes with fans, that you can all throw away because your devices need much bigger casings (because of heat issues)
- and the list goes on and on ...

Seriously dude, just ask BFL how to get from one big fail to the next big fail. And the next. And the next ...





 

[bassclef]

you can look that up on Wikipedia.  estimates to produce a 65 nm ASIC easily run 2 to 5 million.  if I had an rtl I could get the Avalon reproduced in less than six months, but that is not a very sophisticated chip.

Don't forget other business costs. Rent, salaries, accounting, employees, equipment, marketing, website.... the list goes on.

[KS]

well you do realize that creating an testing a 65 nm ASIC can consume millions of dollars pretty quickly, like within months, right?

And if they had to send stuff back (because they designed it poorly not because of manufacturer defect) that cost them a couple hundred grand right there.  Yea?

That would be IF you're creating an ASIC.

Better business model: you create a front -> ship a few cheap parts -> pocket the millions -> pay some fake suppliers (you own, so you're just taking the cash) -> front goes bankrupt -> you = margaritas on the beach.

EDIT: you have to make it look legit though. Don't rush it, take a few months. As long as the money is coming in sufficient qty, keep going (milking).