Speculation: Will Bitcoin fee reward reach parity with block reward this epoch ?

[Wexlike]

In block 456645 3.847 Btc were paid for transactions. This is a percentage of 30% of the current block reward of 12.5 Btc. Obviously this was an exceptional situation: just after the declined ETF decision.




After 8 years Bitcoin reached a state where the 24 h average block size averages at 0.98 Megabytes.


In the current situation there is no more transaction data througput possible anymore, therefore the fee has to increase in a working fee market to include transactions in a block.


And it is increasing due to still higher Bitcoin adoption in an exponential fashion.


My speculation is: The fee and block rewards will reach parity in the next epoch, but if the exponential fee price increase continues it might even reach parity in this epoch if the situation is again as exceptional as the SEC decision was for the Bitcoin market participents.
If the trend continues, Bitcoin in its current form will fully transforms into a settlement layer. Still highly decentralised, but many users will be priced out.

Current SegWirt support:
26%

Current BU support:
30%

[AlphaSun]

If the fee is too high, it will deter adoption/usage. That will decrease the rate of fee increase.

[Holliday]

Hopefully! So healthy for the network to start replacing the block subsidy with transaction fees.

If the fee is too high, it will deter adoption/usage.

No, it won't. Bitcoin has unique properties and those who want to take advantage of those properties are willing to pay for rapid confirmations or wait for slower ones.

[European Central Bank]

No, it won't. Bitcoin has unique properties and those who want to take advantage of those properties are willing to pay for rapid confirmations or wait for slower ones.

i'd love to know how many people find it absolutely vital to use bitcoin compared to anything else. there must be a cost level where most of them will be looking elsewhere.

[Wexlike]

Funny facts:

With 1 MB blocksize, ..

1. the blockchain increases by 144 MB per day, or 52 GB per year.

2. the average transaction limit is 3.5 transactions per second.

3. A 13.3 kbps internet connection is enough to keep up with the blockchain.


Scaling solutions

Current SegWirt support:
27%

Current BU support:
42%