I don't think it is all about miners. Developers have also something to say and who will get the name BTC (and this will be central in this battle) will be decided by the exchanges.
they already deccided to stay with Core.
I expect the price to go %50 below of what it is now.(double the bitcoin number, same USD available = bitcoin loses half of its value in USD. simple math.)
And that is only the purely mathematical side. You also have to factor in speculation, uncertainty, fud. People who dont know anything technical about bitcoin have to learn that there are now two suddenly. It will also have a major price impact. It will promote distrust in bitcoin. Markets hate uncertainty.
we could use a decentralized super computer like Golem as a central authority to validate large blocks
a central solution. awesome
My speculation is that the worst thing for bitcoin right now is deadlock on the scaling debate. Anything that moves us closer to a resolution, even if it means HF, will be perceived by the market as bullish.
in the long run definitely. But short and mid term the price devaluation would be significant. The ETH guys had to wait for what, 8 months now for the price to reach the former levels again. With a low of less than 30 % of the price before the HF.
Polo too. I currently estimate a winning Bitcoin Core as more likely. However if BU would achieve to keep the major part of the hash power for a long time (say months) then sooner or later they would be regarded as the winning chain and market participants had no other choice than to recognize them as the true Bitcoin, also the exchanges. I dont think its likely right now, but its within the realm of possibilities.