Hard Fork speculation thread

[zby]

A hard fork will happen sooner or later so let's prepare our trading strategies for it.

What would be the impact of HF on the price?

How probable is the BU hard fork?

As to the first question - I think the impact will be huge - much bigger than the impact was at the ETH/ETC split, because ETH was much more experimental at the point of the split so people were prepared for weird stuff going on. But also because ETH had the means to stop transaction replay from one fork to the other - and that can really bring much chaos into the network. It works this way - let's say you have some old BTC which after the fork becomes a pair BTC+BTCBU,   you pay for something with BTCBU - and then the receiver of your funds replays your payment on the BTC network to get your BTC as well. As far as I know ETH because of the rich programming environment had ways to stop this - but BTC does not.

In the case of ETH/ETC split there was such a strong consensus that there was practically no battle about who gets the name Ethereum - but if for example the Chinese miners make a BU fork - than this will not be so simple. The longer the battle the more price impact.

The 11/12 March 2013 HF
It was very quick to resolve - one branch was just abandoned - so the impact was very short lived.

As to how probable is the immediate danger of a BU fork - I have no idea.

Update: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/antpool-founder-will-switch-entire-pool-bitcoin-unlimited/

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[Pursuer]

A hard fork will happen sooner or later so let's prepare our trading strategies for it.

hard forks are inevitable in all projects. codes update and we move forward.

and just FYI a hard for has already happened in bitcoin at least once before.

What would be the impact of HF on the price?

people will spread FUD about "hard fork" and there may be some dumps to manipulate the weak hands into selling their coins cheap to the whales, nothing new!

How probable is the BU hard fork?

only time will tell. they have gotten one big mining pool but there is still a very long way to go!

As to the first question - I think the impact will be huge - much bigger than the impact was at the ETH/ETC split,

ethereum didn't fork it split.

after DAO crap, the developer come to a consensus with his whale friends (less than 5% of those who are involved with ethereum) and since they have lost money they decided to cut their losses by doing a roll back and since the other 95% weren't even involved in this, obviously after the "roll back fork" a very large percentage remained on the old chain and called themselves classic.

it had nothing to do with either forking nor ETH being experimental!

As to how probable is the immediate danger of a BU fork - I have no idea.

the way I see it is that there is no danger of a BU fork. the danger is in forking without consensus.
if miners don't want BU, and if nodes don't want BU then the fork is dangerous and from what I have read, nobody wants that.

[shannen87]

This is why I was 100% positive for a ETF aproval.
I knew that if ETF gets declined we will go for a HARD FORK.
And we all know that Hard Fork means that BTC value will drop below $800, even $200.

[zby]

To be honest the miners would be crazy to try it out - the'd lose so much. But watching how the debates escalate does not bring much confidence in the maturity of all participants.

[cengsuwuei]

This is why I was 100% positive for a ETF aproval.
I knew that if ETF gets declined we will go for a HARD FORK.
And we all know that Hard Fork means that BTC value will drop below $800, even $200.

several day latter proposal ETF to SEC rejected not aprove
but this thread discussion about hard fork not ETF

op not write about ETF

[Teraboy]

Can i call if this is a FUD? But i think too early to make a speculationa about HF, although there is a definite answer about the winner the block voting is bitcoin unlimited.

[york780]

When bitcoin unlimited 'wins' inspite of Segwit, there wont be a fork? 

[btcmerich]

I agree it seems we will see BU happening. at the moment they have 33.9% hashrate. BU hashrate was around 200/1000 blocks  but it has picked up in the last 4 days to be around 319/1000 blocks.   when BU gets close to 45 % hashrate we will see how the market reacts.. and if they go over 51% well then it is better we all hold tight to our pants because it will be very very scarey indeed.

All BU needs is that some of the 8mb and segwit miners to jump on BU or direct 100% of their miners towards it and boom the ride starts

And also like some one pointed out, it is not sure we might see two chains. ETH/ETC chains forked because of the rollback to create new chain in order to stop the hacker cashing out his tokens

[york780]

I am already preparing for a fork. Time to build some fiat money to buy the dip. I dont sell my cold stash.

[mindrust]

Current code can't fight with the new altcoin technologies and there should be a major update. Being the first and having the best name those are all good but if the network keeps being busy like this, people will use another crypto currency which fulfills their needs. Not because people don't like bitcoin but because they simply have no other choice.

I don't know if  Segwit or BU is a better choice but one of them should win this battle as quickly as possible. I see that BU will enable lower transaction fees, so my vote is with that one.

[zby]

...
ethereum didn't fork it split.

after DAO crap, the developer come to a consensus with his whale friends (less than 5% of those who are involved with ethereum) and since they have lost money they decided to cut their losses by doing a roll back and since the other 95% weren't even involved in this, obviously after the "roll back fork" a very large percentage remained on the old chain and called themselves classic.

it had nothing to do with either forking nor ETH being experimental!

So what is a fork and what is a split? In eth we now have two incompatible branches in the blockchain - isn't that a fork?

As to how probable is the immediate danger of a BU fork - I have no idea.

the way I see it is that there is no danger of a BU fork. the danger is in forking without consensus.
if miners don't want BU, and if nodes don't want BU then the fork is dangerous and from what I have read, nobody wants that.

Yeah - consensus is the greatest factor - this is illustrated by the  11/12 March 2013 HF - quick crash on uncertainty and quick recovery when it was obvious that everyone is on the same branch. If we have a fork without consensus the resulting chaos will repel investors.

I don't think it is all about miners. Developers have also something to say and who will get the name BTC (and this will be central in this battle) will be decided by the exchanges.

[NUFCrichard]

There is about a 100% chance that if Bitcoin is hard-forked, that we will have 2 Bitcoins actively trading afterwards.
I think it will hurt everyone involved in the short term, but in the longer term a Bitcoin Unlimited or with Segwit would be the more viable project.

If the Chinese miner want to keep mining Bitcoin classic instead of Bitcoin Unlimited, that is for them to decide. I don't really see value to mining farms, they are more like leaches who are starting to want ever more blood.

[Vaccinus]

we need to go ahead scale bitcoin anyway if they cannot decide, a fork is the only thing to do, the time for speaking ended long time ago, i'm not happy with the current amount of fee to pay for a transaction, it's too expensive, either BU or segwit is okish as long as they solve this thing quickly, i think the fork will not cause any major dump is is just fud to make people dump

[Paashaas]

There is about a 100% chance that if Bitcoin is hard-forked, that we will have 2 Bitcoins actively trading afterwards.
I think it will hurt everyone involved in the short term, but in the longer term a Bitcoin Unlimited or with Segwit would be the more viable project.

If the Chinese miner want to keep mining Bitcoin classic instead of Bitcoin Unlimited, that is for them to decide. I don't really see value to mining farms, they are more like leaches who are starting to want ever more blood.

Miners will follow the user cases for the money. Exchanges, wallet providers etc favors Segwit. It doesn't matter if BU got enough hashpower for a HF, they will go down after 10min.

A HF after Segwit update will be much smoother than doing it in this current condition.

[shannen87]

I am already preparing for a fork. Time to build some fiat money to buy the dip. I dont sell my cold stash.

Why you don't sell your cold stash? If a HF happens, it's better to sell ALL and rebuy later at MUCH lower prices. Why keep a cold stash of for example 1000$ that will worth 100$ after a HF.

[york780]

I am not 100% sure IF and WHEN the hardfork occurs and what the effects will be. Maybe there wont be a hardfork and then i sold my stash for nothing. When i am sure it will be at the same time that you guys know if and the price has alreay dropped by then. The best tactic right now is keeping your cheap bitcoin (below 800 EUR) and watch how everything plays out.

[gentlemand]

There's a humongous difference between agitating and flashing hashing and actually going through with it. If they were on that particular precipice I'm not totally sure they'd go through with it as the divisiveness would be at a fever pitch.

Here's an alternate theory, it's a fine reason for an outrageous alt pump. Cheaper, safer and more money to be made if you're behind a false narrative driving people to 'diversify'.

[mindrust]

If I understood correctly, it will be like this:

If you hold your bitcoins in an appropriate bitcoin wallet, you will be able to own BUcoins (bitcoin unlimited coins) as the same amount of your BCcoins. (bitcoin core coins)

In other worlds, BUcoins will be created out of nothing and you will be able sell them for BCcoins and BCcoins for $$$.

That sounds like a huuuge dump fest to my ears.   People will dump that shit like there is no tomorrow.

[york780]

Dumping bitcoin core coins you mean ? , if i understand you right.
But core is 80% of the total mined coins right?
Correct my if i am wrong, i am not sure.
Just keep your BTC in a cold wallet like Ledger and you will be fine i think.
Is there a real chance that a fork will happen? I doubt it.

[mindrust]

Dumping bitcoin core coins you mean ? , if i understand you right.
But core is 80% of the total mined coins right?
Correct my if i am wrong, i am not sure.
Just keep your BTC in a cold wallet like Ledger and you will be fine i think.
Is there a real chance that a fork will happen? I doubt it.

I explained it as clear as i can. But i ll try again.  

Lets say you have 100bitcoins in your electrum wallet. When BU makes a hard fork, you will be able to claim another 100 bitcoins in your Bitcoin Unlimited wallet. Those bitcoins in your BU wallet will have a value in your regular bitcoins.

They will have the same value(1:1) at the beginning but in time, people will dump one of them to get the other. I mean, think about litecoin has a rate with bitcoins. After the HF, there will be 2 bitcoins, and they will have a rate between them also.

I expect the price to go %50  below of what it is now.(double the bitcoin number, same USD available = bitcoin loses half of its value in USD. simple math.)

Check Ethereum and Ethereum Classic for more information.