Bitcoin Exchanges Unveil Emergency Hard Fork Contingency Plan

[dinofelis]

This is not a fork, it is a revolution

A hard fork over economic parameters is a revolution.

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[dinofelis]

never said hashrate. i said majority. learn consensus

In a proof of work system, majority is majority of hash rate.  That is what consensus is about.   In a proof of stake system, majority is majority of stake.  And in a proof of node system, majority is majority of nodes.  Easily Sybil attacked, hence not meaningful.

[Lauda]

your right. he doesnt have 16%. he has less.. try to double check statistics, not reddit next time

Nonsense. It is clear as sky that you are very uninformed and ignorant. Jihan has far more than 16%. What Antpool is mining is just a tiny part of that.

never said hashrate. i said majority. learn consensus and you will understand its about nodes that are more important.. r

They will never have a majority. They have a very tiny minority.

doesnt matter what satoshi does. spending coins is just temporary "price" drama.
if anyone only cares about price drama they need to take a step back and think about the bigger picture.
if anyone only cares about 'double my coins' greed drama they need to take a step back and think about the bigger picture.

Dumping almost 1 million Bitcoin is "temporary price drama"?

never said hashrate. i said majority. learn consensus

In a proof of work system, majority is majority of hash rate.  That is what consensus is about.   In a proof of stake system, majority is majority of stake.  And in a proof of node system, majority is majority of nodes.  Easily Sybil attacked, hence not meaningful.

No. You don't understand how consensus works. Even I agree with franky1 on this one.

[dinofelis]

never said hashrate. i said majority. learn consensus

In a proof of work system, majority is majority of hash rate.  That is what consensus is about.   In a proof of stake system, majority is majority of stake.  And in a proof of node system, majority is majority of nodes.  Easily Sybil attacked, hence not meaningful.

No. You don't understand how consensus works. Even I agree with franky1 on this one.

I explained the mechanism in every detail.  Just saying "you are wrong" without any logically build argument, is no tt going to cut it.  I know many people are deluded on this, but the earth goes around the sun, and not the other way around, no matter what the Cardinals have been preaching.  Learn to think for yourself.

In a proof of work system, the consensus is made by those providing proof of work.  But ultimately they will take into account those that pay for the joke, that is, the users in the market.  And that's it.

Counter my argument that:
1)  if miners agree (PoW consensus), there is only one single source of block chain, namely the chain on which they work, and which can only  be obtained from one of their nodes
2) there ain't any other block chain around
3) all that non mining nodes can do, is download this block chain, directly from one of the miner's nodes, or from a copy of one of their peers, but if they want to have a block chain, they'll have to obtain it.
4) miners, in order to be efficient, have to have good direct connections amongst their own nodes, in order to be quickly aware of the new blocks so not to get orphaned
5) miners, having invested a lot in mining, can easily set up "data center type" nodes to which ALL other nodes that want a copy of the block chain, can connect, and non-mining node owners cannot have any other block chain than the one they can obtain from one of these "big" nodes.  As long as the distributed network of proxy nodes does the work for them, that's OK, but if they have to invest in such a big data center node, they will, because they want to serve their customers, the users, and get their transactions, and deliver the block chain to them, so that these users continue to pump money in the market where the miners sell their coins.
6) if a non-mining node doesn't agree with the block chain that is produced by miners, it simply stops because there is no other chain around.  A non-mining node cannot stop miners from making the chain THEY agreed upon.

As such, this proves clearly that in a proof of work system, the consensus is the one between those delivering proof of work and no-one else.

But, these proof of work deliverers will take into account all signals from the MARKET to optimize their earnings (that is, to optimize the amount of coins they can get from reward and fees, times what the market sets as a price for those coins).  In as much as nodes are an indication of the sentiment amongst market makers, they will take that into account in their consensus to optimise their earnings.

Exercise:
1) suppose ALL miners agree upon 4 MB blocks, even though all users want to have 1 MB blocks.  The miners only make one chain, with 4 MB blocks.  What are users and nodes, including exchanges, going to do ? 

2) suppose that ALL miners agree upon 1 MB blocks, even though all users want to have 4 MB blocks.  The miners only make one chain, with 1 MB blocks.  What are users and nodes, including exchanges, going to do ?

Tell me how nodes impose their will onto miners, if miners come to a consensus.

[Lauda]

Exercise:
1) suppose ALL miners agree upon 4 MB blocks, even though all users want to have 1 MB blocks.  The miners only make one chain, with 4 MB blocks.  What are users and nodes, including exchanges, going to do ? 

Emergency hard fork PoW change -> all miners are fired and all their gear is effectively useless.

2) suppose that ALL miners agree upon 1 MB blocks, even though all users want to have 4 MB blocks.  The miners only make one chain, with 1 MB blocks.  What are users and nodes, including exchanges, going to do ?

Same as above if needed.
Both situations are a hostile takeover.

[dinofelis]

Exercise:
1) suppose ALL miners agree upon 4 MB blocks, even though all users want to have 1 MB blocks.  The miners only make one chain, with 4 MB blocks.  What are users and nodes, including exchanges, going to do ?  

Emergency hard fork PoW change -> all miners are fired and all their gear is effectively useless.

No, of course not.  If you change the PoW algorithm, for instance, you implement Scrypt, you simply make an altcoin with a bidirectional hard fork.  

You make a NEW POPULATION OF MINERS.

Both coins will be on the market now, one with a SHA256 hash and one with a Scrypt hash.  The market will now decide how the market cap will be divided over both coins.

If it is true that the users prefer the new coin, then indeed, the former miners will be on a worthless chain.  But we now have simply a NEW miner population.

Note that the nodes didn't count for zilch in this transition.  It was a new miner population on a hard fork that was taking over, not nodes.   But the USERS decided in the market.

However, think of this.  The new miner population will be running at low difficulty, because there's not much hash power available for Scrypt.  The security of the new chain will be miles below the security of the old chain, and the new scrypt miners will make a fortune, with small gear, reaping in high rewards.

So it isn't guaranteed that the users will make the switch.  Hell, if they wanted to, they could have exchanged their bitcoin for litecoin right away, because this other coin already exists !!

So this "take over" is far from guaranteed to succeed, and in any case, it is then a battle between two miner populations, and NODES HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS.

There where it gets trickier, and might be an outcome for bitcoin, is if one launched a proof-of-stake version of bitcoin.  A hard fork that uses proof of stake instead of proof of work.  Like ethereum plans to do.  

At a certain point, you don't care any more about any miner, because there's no mining any more.  In fact, just any person could launch a proof-of-stake version of bitcoin.  If the code is available, people can install this.  But again, it is a hard fork and will be decided in the market.  

This might actually be a good idea: to make a proof-of-stake version of bitcoin.  But it will just be an alt coin.  Will people switch entirely to it in the market ?  Highly doubtfull too.  But at least, with proof of stake, there is no miner war any more: the consensus is this time determined by the stake holders, and not by a separate interest group.

In that case, nodes become slightly more important, because stake holders have also to keep their nodes running to mint blocks.  This might be an idea.  But it won't catch on, I'm sure.  Because it would be an alt coin, and would not carry the brand of bitcoin.

Forking off bitcoin is something that I'm surprised is not done more for altcoin makers.  I would never start a new genesis block if I wanted to make an alt coin, I would fork off bitcoin, eventually with a special forking bloc giving me some premine.

So, conclusion:
in any case, nobody "forced bitcoin" to do what ever because nodes decided so.  At best, an altcoin is forked off from bitcoin which has such a big success in the market that it completely overtakes bitcoin, but that is already possible right now: if people want 4 times more room and another algorithm: litecoin is already in the market (note that it has segwit ready to be activated too, but it is not catching on there either).

And if people really are fed up with miners, they can fork off a proof-of-stake coin, but, hey, if ethereum does the same, why not simply buy ethereum ?  Or peercoin, for that matter ?

So that's visibly not what people really really want and in any case, it is an alt coin that is made NEXT TO BITCOIN.

[techstorm3]

Confused by this news. I have all my bitcoin in offline paper wallets. Do i need to do anything.

[dinofelis]

Confused by this news. I have all my bitcoin in offline paper wallets. Do i need to do anything.

No.  Nothing will happen in any case, and if it happens, that's the safest thing you can do: keep it there until the storm is over.  Maybe they won't be worth much any more, but you'll still have them 

[ziggy2]

By the way, can one keep his BTC both on a paper wallet and in a PC-Based (say Electrum) wallet ?

[BigBoom3599]

By the way, can one keep his BTC both on a paper wallet and in a PC-Based (say Electrum) wallet ?

You can, however the safety of your private key will then be as safe as the weakest link (most likely your pc), so make sure to keep your pc safe. Except for that it's a good way to backup your private keys

[ziggy2]

I understand, thank you very much.
Now, what happens when I spend some BTC ? Do I have to print again the paper wallet, or does is contain only (sort of) passwords ?

[Jewell]

Confused by this news. I have all my bitcoin in offline paper wallets. Do i need to do anything.

No.  Nothing will happen in any case, and if it happens, that's the safest thing you can do: keep it there until the storm is over.  Maybe they won't be worth much any more, but you'll still have them 

i think yes that is too much important to keep it now and not to sell. i think the everything will be ok very soon. the price is going to get a strong support here and hope that the price of bitcoin is not going to fell down any more.

[Victorycoin]

The notion of altcoin will not exist any more.  Bitcoin will have become a coin like any other.
First mover advantage gone if ever that happens.

Wrong. BTU will be, per definition, an altcoin. I'm not going to comment the latter part, but it will surely have a negative effect short term. I guess this is what they wanted when they were "concerned with the user experience".

These you have it folks, the economic majority is coming to a consensus that the BU implementation is an altcoin and will be listed under BTU.

But won't BU still make bitcoin's price go down a bunch, if it hardforks?

I'm a bit confused of this whole situation. I tried reading about this in many different places, such as coinbase, and everyone keeps saying bitcoin will hardfork. That would then decrease the value of bitcoin?? I'm a bit scared of what will happen with bitcoin to be honest.

Yes; to be frank, it will be a "fucking blood bath". Whales supporting their own chain will be dumping the other chain to the ground in hopes that their chain is significantly stronger than the opposition.

These blood letting portends no good experience for the average user, whales stands to buy back at ridiculous low prices, while average joe might have had a chunk of his worth and purchasing power gone with the wind. What to do now Guess the time is ripe for migration while these two elephants make a show of their sizes.

[Wind_FURY]

This is a sad month for all bitcoin users. We are now faced with the possibility of a split community the other one is with the core developers while the other group is with Bitcoin Unlimited. It is sad to see that bitcoin will split into BTC and BTU however it seems that this time we can no longer meet a consensus and thus bitcoin will split like Ethereum and Ethereum Classic.

Sad? Why would it be sad? The big blockers are saying that a fork is "healthy" and at some point, to make everyone happy, it is unavoidable. Some people with Core themselves think almost the same. If you're not happy then go ahead and do a hard fork.

The only sad thing I can see happening here with all the Bitcoiners is the dropping price. Get over it.

[ziggy2]

I see that some of us are pessimistic, and words like "blood bath" are used...Isn't this exagerated ?

The reasons for which the system will stay solid and continue to grow are strong : BTC is by (very) far the biggest and strongest alternative currency with a rather "long" and consistent history - demonstrating the technical and financial validity of the concept - and millions of users, the majority of which (including developpers who are also stake-holders and BTC investors) have a common interest in keeping everything "in working condition".

Many difficulties have been successfully overcome in the past, with a general increase in value, and a reinforced confidence in the BTC. The current drop in exchange rate is moderate - no more than roughly 10 per cent if you put apart the speculative peak to USD 1200 due to the hope of an ETF approval. There are reasons to believe that investors have somewhat anticipated the "BTU issue", hence the hesitation of the market.

I am far from being a specialist, but by reading the comments of many experts of both sides, I have the impression that in general there is a consensus that, although there will be some technical issues to address, the money that we own in BTC will not "disappear". Many competent people will continue to work hard to technically overcome the fork issue if it happens, and if the BTC "system" (buying and selling) continues to work, the rest will be essentially a matter of trust and time...

[monsanto]

Yes, this is what I have mentioned in the other thread.  If Satoshi is adamantly against BU (and there are reasons to think he is) he could dump it into the ground.

Sources?

The usual suspects.

What makes you think that Satoshi is alive?

Well yeah Hal is dead (r.i.p.).. if you think he was alone.

doesnt matter what satoshi does. spending coins is just temporary "price" drama.
if anyone only cares about price drama they need to take a step back and think about the bigger picture.
if anyone only cares about 'double my coins' greed drama they need to take a step back and think about the bigger picture.

I dunno.. 5-10% of outstanding btc might not be "temporary price drama". 

Lets say hypothetically there is a split, and BU gets vast majority of hashrate, and BU price is around $1000.  Then Satoshi would control roughly $800 million to $1.6 billion worth of bitcoin.  Lets say he had very strong reasons to dislike BU, and also felt that in a free market, anybody should be able to sell their coins whenever they want.  I don't know what the total order book liquidity across all the exchanges would be for BU, but I doubt it could withstand the epic tsunami of one billion dollars worth of Satoshi's BU coins raining down upon them.

[franky1]

doesnt matter what satoshi does. spending coins is just temporary "price" drama.
if anyone only cares about price drama they need to take a step back and think about the bigger picture.
if anyone only cares about 'double my coins' greed drama they need to take a step back and think about the bigger picture.

Dumping almost 1 million Bitcoin is "temporary price drama"?

I dunno.. 5-10% of outstanding btc might not be "temporary price drama".  

10min-2 hours minutes of pressing send and waiting for funds to confirm into an exchange
placing an order and selling the coins.

once sold, then what..

oh yea over a century of blocks still producing.

a few hours of price drama maybe even a few weeks.. compared to a century of block creation = temporary price drama

much like ethereum.. the price drama of their bilateral split is over. people dont think its exciting and just treat it as 2 alts. much like non-exciting trading between say bitcoin and litecoin.. no drama the litecoin/bitcoin drama ended in mid 2012... just a couple months after litecoin got popular then slowed down..

but now 5 years on..  bitcoin and litecoin are doing their own thing.
meaning a hard fork based purely on greed of people only caring about the price/'double' coin hopes.. are not thinking about the big picture or caring about bitcoin as a diverse single consensus network. they just care about some temporal price drama

[monsanto]

doesnt matter what satoshi does. spending coins is just temporary "price" drama.
if anyone only cares about price drama they need to take a step back and think about the bigger picture.
if anyone only cares about 'double my coins' greed drama they need to take a step back and think about the bigger picture.

Dumping almost 1 million Bitcoin is "temporary price drama"?

I dunno.. 5-10% of outstanding btc might not be "temporary price drama".  

10min-2 hours minutes of pressing send and waiting for funds to confirm into an exchange
placing an order and selling the coins.

once sold, then what..

oh yea over a century of blocks still producing.

a few hours of price drama maybe even a few weeks.. compared to a century of block creation = temporary price drama

much like ethereum.. the price drama of their bilateral split is over. people dont think its exciting and just treat it as 2 alts. much like non-exciting trading between say bitcoin and litecoin.. no drama the litecoin/bitcoin drama ended in mid 2012... just a couple months after litecoin got popular then slowed down..

My point was regarding the special case where a single individual who might not like one of the resulting chains controls a huge percentage, at least 5% of outstanding coins.  Is there anyone like that in eth?  Maybe the DAO hacker if they hadn't forked... I think that was several percent of all eth.  And, in fact, maybe someone else did control that much eth, and maybe that's why etc is at least an order of magnitude cheaper.

If for example Satoshi dumped a billion dollars on BU, he could take those profits and buy core BTC, and make it more profitable for miners to mine core. Obviously this is all unlikely, but if it did happen it would have lasting impact imo.  He wouldn't even have to sell them necessarily, he could just move them to exchanges and say if you want the price of BU btc higher than X you better be prepared to buy $1 billion dollars of my BU btc.

[franky1]

My point was regarding the special case where a single individual who might not like one of the resulting chains controls a huge percentage, at least 5% of outstanding coins.  Is there anyone like that in eth?  Maybe the DAO hacker if they hadn't forked... I think that was several percent of all eth.  And, in fact, maybe someone else did control that much eth, and maybe that's why etc is at least an order of magnitude cheaper.

If for example Satoshi dumped a billion dollars on BU, he could take those profits and buy core BTC, and make it more profitable for miners to mine core. Obviously this is all unlikely, but if it did happen it would have lasting impact imo.  He wouldn't even have to sell them necessarily, he could just move them to exchanges and say if you want the price of BU btc higher than X you better be prepared to buy $1 billion dollars of my BU btc.

still temporal.

notice the event of the mega rise and dump of 2013-2014...

its just history.. no one talks about mtgox anymore.. just a temporal price drama. gone, forgotton.
if all you care about is the price. then expect 6 months after your greedy moment has passed. your then left with the thought of..

was that greedy moment worth it to have core in sole 100% control where bitcoin is a TIER network, with multiple implementations diversely on a minorty network.
or
having multiple implementations diversely and happily on the peer network, whereby core left in the minority as an alt in their own tier network.

try to think passed your greed of price drama and think about the network as a whole and the long term results

[Wind_FURY]

I dunno.. 5-10% of outstanding btc might not be "temporary price drama". 

Lets say hypothetically there is a split, and BU gets vast majority of hashrate, and BU price is around $1000.  Then Satoshi would control roughly $800 million to $1.6 billion worth of bitcoin.  Lets say he had very strong reasons to dislike BU, and also felt that in a free market, anybody should be able to sell their coins whenever they want.  I don't know what the total order book liquidity across all the exchanges would be for BU, but I doubt it could withstand the epic tsunami of one billion dollars worth of Satoshi's BU coins raining down upon them.

I know one person, who is a long time Bitcoiner, who has the capability to do something like that. He is also rumored to be the guy who hacked the DAO. He is kind of an eccentric but he is very smart. I am scared to mention his name in public and I do not know if I should. But I would happily give it to you through pm.