Trigger for BTC / BTC hard fork

[Chris2711]

Hey,

I´ve read a lot about the speculations about a possible BTC hard fork.
What I did not understand by now is what would be the final trigger for a split?
Just more nodes supporting / using BTU than BTC core?

[AliceWonderMiscreations]

What I saw - first they have to reach 75% of nodes for a full difficulty period.
Then they will maintain 75% of nodes for two additional difficulty periods while getting the word out that the fork is coming.
Then the fork can happen.

So it will take at least 6 weeks from when they hit 75% - and they are only in 30% range now - http://nodecounter.com/#bitcoin_classic_blocks - only about (just under) half the mining hash power needed.

They don't have to stick to that plan but won't fork w/ less than 51% and I doubt they will do it with less than 75%.

[Coinguys]

Do you think it will happen?

I think it would be best for them to just create a new coin instead of using the Bitcoin name and slicing off

[Chris2711]

Thanks for the explanation, good to know it´s not something that might happen over night.

BT unlimited support seems to be rising, so it might happen with all consequences.
This article describes it quite well:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/hard-fork-will-slow-bitcoin-price-down-3000-target-less-likely-vinny-lingham