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社科院金融蓝皮书:2017年股市信心仍然处在“疗伤”阶段
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Topic: 社科院金融蓝皮书:2017年股市信心仍然处在“疗伤”阶段 (Read 203 times)
may13381622239
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社科院金融蓝皮书:2017年股市信心仍然处在“疗伤”阶段
March 22, 2017, 07:16:21 AM
#1
3月22日,由中国社会科学院金融研究所、国家金融与发展实验室和社会科学文献出版社共同发布的“金融蓝皮书”《中国金融发展报告(2017)》指出, 2017年市场的信心仍然处在“疗伤”阶段。“维持稳定、窄幅波动”将是2017年股市的主基调。
该蓝皮书指出,从居民资产配置的角度看,房地产行业经过一年多的持续上涨,在政策的调控下,已经从高位回落。居民资产配置将向房地产之外的资产倾斜,短期有利于股市活跃。从中长期看,房地产的回落不利于各行业的盈利增长,反而会对股价产生抑制。
从市场博弈的心理因素看,2015年的“股灾”对市场的负面影响还没有消除,投资者对股市的信心还处于低迷状态。
投资者对股市的信心可以从投资者持仓账户占全部有效账户的比例这一数据中直观地反映出来(投资者持仓账户占比在2016年持续下降)。根据以往的市场波动周期,市场信心从回落至恢复需要3-4年的时间,2017年市场的信心仍然处在“疗伤”阶段。
此前,在2014年12月,中国社会科学院金融研究所发布的《金融蓝皮书:中国金融发展报告(2015)》曾指出,2015年上证综合指数突破3000点、重上5000点都是可期待的。上述预测成真。但是此后估价持续暴跌。
21世纪经济报道获悉,上证指数从2014年11月2500点左右,一路高歌到2015年8月5000多点,不到一年时间涨幅高达100%,但是此后持续暴跌,到2017年3月21日,仍只是维持在3200多点的水平。
上述金融蓝皮书”《中国金融发展报告(2017)》指出,从外部环境看,美元升值将是未来股市的重要扰动因素。如果美元走强持续,则会出现资本外流,不利于我国股市走强。
从监管政策视角看,总结“股灾”教训,恢复市场的正常功能和秩序仍然是2017年的股市政策基调。为了贯彻“金融为实体经济服务”的思路,股票发行的注册制改革在2017年会艰难推进。在注册制改革取得实质性进展的假设下,借壳重组的行为仍将难以大行其道。
kangageaf
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Re: 社科院金融蓝皮书:2017年股市信心仍然处在“疗伤”阶段
March 23, 2017, 05:12:35 AM
#2
凡治病者,第一件事是诊病。中国股市信心的伤自何来?地产吸金,资金南下,政策多变,新股飞速扩容,定增欲豁难填,大鳄带着大钱被打跑,养老金迟迟不进来,养老金天天喊着要进来,都是伤信心伤感情的事儿。
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