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比特币价格分析:为硬分叉制定交易计划
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Topic: 比特币价格分析:为硬分叉制定交易计划 (Read 200 times)
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比特币价格分析:为硬分叉制定交易计划
March 22, 2017, 10:40:22 AM
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目前,越来越多的人支持将比特币通过硬分叉分裂成两种不同的货币:Bitcoin Unlimited(BU)和Bitcoin Core。BU主张完全删除区块大小1BM上限。还有另外一个解决方案——Segregated Witness(SegWit),它主张通过实施软分叉将区块大小上限提到4MB,并鸡进一步改进协议,如闪电网络,这将会减少区块大小的负担甚至进一步开放链下(off-chain)付款渠道。
从交易的角度来看,硬叉在近期和中期的未来产生了很大的不确定性。以太坊是一个具有大量市值的数字货币的例子,目前价值39亿美元,总共经过四个硬叉,其中一个将货币分为以太坊经典,继续积极开采和交易。尽管以太坊最近在价格和市值方面创造了新的历史最高点(ATH),但2016年是该货币的整体下跌年。
近年来,比特币的市值一直在120到170亿美元之间波动,目前还不清楚硬分叉如何影响比特币价格,但是不要指望交易者会敞开怀抱拥抱硬分叉。尽管看起来硬分叉正在定价比特币价格,但是在硬分叉发生之前,谁也不知道比特币分裂成两种货币会造成怎么样的后果。不确定性通常会增加看跌价格的预期,而比特币协议基本原则的不确定性肯定会受到许多交易者和投资者的关注。
虽然在理论上BU可以在任何时候分裂网络,但是一般来要实施硬分叉要获得51%到75%的算力支持。最重要的是,要为每种可能性制定不同的交易计划,尤其是在BU变得越来越受欢迎的时候。因此,寻找价格的支撑位非常重要。利用价格从2015年底至今的走势图,我们就可以找到这些支撑位。
用一直线把谷底连接起来形成趋势线就可以得出最基本的支撑位。第二个支撑位就是先前价格下挫时企稳反弹的价位。我更喜欢使用200周期的简单移动平均线(EMA)。最后,或许也是最重要的,是利用整体趋势的高低点绘制斐波纳契回撤线,以此显示出非常明显的支撑位和阻力位。8月2日黑客攻击Bitfinex时,比特币价格跌到200周期的斐波纳契的0.236回撤水平处,同时这也是日线图中上升三角形的支撑位。在中国中央银行第一次发布监管公告后,比特币价格下挫到斐波纳契0.5回撤位,这也是先前市场突破新高时遇到的阻力区域。
上述趋势线、200EMA和斐波纳契回撤位0.618三者相交之处,便是比特币价格强大的支撑位,约680美元。我预料比特币价格进一步下挫被支撑并企稳就在这个价位,如果再一步下跌至50%回撤水平,那么780美元就是支撑位。8月2日Bitfinex黑客事件就是一个例子,当时价格虽然破跌200EMA,但收盘价格既在其之上。但是,硬分叉和Bitfinex黑客事件不一样,前者会为网络持续带来不确定性因素,而后者只是一个突发事件,很快就会过去了。这表明了如果硬分叉导致价格下跌的话,要想其立即反弹修复失地,这可能性不大。
就短期而言,价格在1小时级别的走势图中,出现了一些态势:
上升楔形和斐波纳契50%回撤水平相交形成阻力位
成交量缩放相间分布
相对强弱指标(RSI)获趋势线支撑
上升楔形通过是一种反转形态,价格当然可以向上突破,但更多时候会被压制下来,若真如此,市场会继续看跌。越往后楔子就会变得更紧密,直到市场做出选择。震荡至楔形的四分之三或者更大时,市场往往就会做出选择,那时比特币价格约为1,100美元:上图中的斐波纳契50%回撤水平处。
我们还注意到一个下降三角形。价格要么是在修整巩固准备再次上涨,要么是要为下一轮下跌而蓄力。
最后,RSI多次往下触及到趋势线反企稳向上。如果RSI跌破趋势线,那么暗示着1小时级别上的K线仍有下调空间。目前,RSI表现良好。
概要
硬分叉增加市场看跌预期。
为大的市场事件制定的交易计划包括支撑位和阻力位。在这种情况下,50%回撤水平后价格交投于760美元一线,此后有可能反弹至900美元。
注意上升楔形的支撑位的有效性。
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