
April 22, 2013, 09:47:50 PM 

Hi guys, I have been think about the risks associated with putting in an order with BFL for a Jalepeno. I can't post in the Economics section because I'm a noob, but I wanted to get people's thoughts on my ideas of the expected monetary value (EMV) of a Jalepeno.
To calculate the EMV here, you take (the dollar amount you are expecting from outcome 1) x (the probability of outcome 1 happening)  (the dollar amount you are expecting to lose from outcome 2) x (the probability of outcome 2 happening).
I am taking (the expected return of a Jalepeno in thirty days (arbitrary number) running at 5 GH/s 24/7 at current exchange rates (~$125/BTC) with the difficulty level at 10,500,000 (also arbitrary, but we can only guess as to what the level will really be once ASICs roll out en masse)) x (the probability that BFL will actually ship the devices, which in my opinion is 20%)  (the cost of placing an order for one BFL) x (the probability that BFL will not ship devices, which in my opinion leaves us at 80%). I am excluding electricity costs; BFL does not list consumption and they are negligible anyway.
This gives us ($897.90 (30 days x $29.93 (0.2395 BTC)/day) x .20)  ($274.00 x .80) = $678.70
Thoughts on this? Of course there are a ton of variables in here that may change...difficulty may increase exponentially, exchange rates may go down, electricity was not factored in, etc. However, if we are not risk adverse (EMVer's) and buy a Jalepeno, we each can possibly make $678.70 in a month.
Please give me your feedback and suggestions to this.
