Expected Monetary Value of a BFL Jalepeno

[boyburger17]

Hi guys, I have been think about the risks associated with putting in an order with BFL for a Jalepeno.  I can't post in the Economics section because I'm a noob, but I wanted to get people's thoughts on my ideas of the expected monetary value (EMV) of a Jalepeno.

To calculate the EMV here, you take (the dollar amount you are expecting from outcome 1) x (the probability of outcome 1 happening) - (the dollar amount you are expecting to lose from outcome 2) x (the probability of outcome 2 happening). 

I am taking (the expected return of a Jalepeno in thirty days (arbitrary number) running at 5 GH/s 24/7 at current exchange rates (~$125/BTC) with the difficulty level  at 10,500,000 (also arbitrary, but we can only guess as to what the level will really be once ASICs roll out en masse)) x (the probability that BFL will actually ship the devices, which in my opinion is 20%) - (the cost of placing an order for one BFL) x (the probability that BFL will not ship devices, which in my opinion leaves us at 80%).  I am excluding electricity costs; BFL does not list consumption and they are negligible anyway.

This gives us ($897.90 (30 days x $29.93 (0.2395 BTC)/day) x .20) - ($274.00 x .80) = $678.70

Thoughts on this?  Of course there are a ton of variables in here that may change...difficulty may increase exponentially, exchange rates may go down, electricity was not factored in, etc.  However, if we are not risk adverse (EMVer's) and buy a Jalepeno, we each can possibly make $678.70 in a month.

Please give me your feedback and suggestions to this.

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[vm1990]

iv also got 2 jalapenos on order i expect after everything and all ASICS come online they will earn around 0.5 btc a week but before all ASICS come online i expect them to earn anywhere from 2-3 btc and if the jalapenos are the first to get shipped then a week oof possibly 5-10btc power consumption is somewhere around 10-20 w at most

im in the very early orders so plan on my jalapeno paying back within 2 weeks

[zoktar]

iv also got 2 jalapenos on order i expect after everything and all ASICS come online they will earn around 0.5 btc a week but before all ASICS come online i expect them to earn anywhere from 2-3 btc and if the jalapenos are the first to get shipped then a week oof possibly 5-10btc power consumption is somewhere around 10-20 w at most

im in the very early orders so plan on my jalapeno paying back within 2 weeks

I ordered a jally at around October last year, have you gotten any reply on when about's yours will be shipped?

[Lgetty17]

They WILL ship. It may just be 2014. So i would factor in the predicted hashrate/difficulty by the time they ship. I would estimate the hashrate to be 300-400 TH/s by the time that you could get your hands on a Jalapeno if you were to order today. I would also calculate it based on a 6 month or 12 month yeild, factoring in the increasing hashrate. I seriously expect the network hashrate to be 1 PH/s by mid 2014. With my calculations I estimate 8.3BTC over 6 months and 13.5 over a year. Pretty good