What do you think is the actual bitcoin value? Was the $266 price a hoax? Many said it is a bubble, but now that it stabilized at $120 it can easily go to $200-$300 again.
Who cares about the short time price? Just speculators, and speculating is a fast way to lose money.
Think about it long time. That being said, you are probably right.
Now that it is stabilizing at around 100-120, it really could be a long term price.
The idea is that if demand is greater than supply, the price will jump. Supply won't grow too much as it is limited, which means that if the demand grows the price should keep jumping.
This is just a theory though as we don't really know if the demand will stick.