Probability of Hard Fork Update

[Roccker]

https://coin.dance/blocks




So... when BU gets 50% there is high danger of hard fork?



What do you think are the chances that a hard fork happens in the next month in %?

[Flomess]

Well none can know that for sure but the BU blocks are rising fast lately.
If it's going to happen, it will happen in the next month or two i belive.

[European Central Bank]

the first part is the easy part. the closer it gets the harder it's gonna be to convince other miners to come on board. that's assuming that this jihan guy doesn't control 70-80% of the hashing which he probably does but doesn't want to admit right now.

[teramit]

for a HF you need consensus, without it only an altcoin.
so 51% is just a step.

[Amph]

the chance are slim, 51% is not enough, but i noticed that while BU increase two points percentage, segwit also did so and increase 1-2 points, was 25-26% before

this seems a nice website with a recap about mined block distribution http://xtnodes.com/

[shannen87]

I say in 2 weeks, first days of April...

[NeuroticFish]

https://coin.dance/blocks


So... when BU gets 50% there is high danger of hard fork?
What do you think are the chances that a hard fork happens in the next month in %?

First of all, there's quite a big step from 38% to 50%+. I remember SegWit had also very promising % at start and then stopped and even decreased.
So basically we should care of this when BU gets way over 45%, maybe 48-49%.

Now your questions:
From what I know, BU has something hardcoded and only after a very big % of network is theirs, only then they will hardfork. So while in theory, at 51% they have the chance to hardfork just by emitting bigger blocks, they don't intend to. Of course, politics can trigger a change of ideas, change in code, update and kaboom. But no. The battle is to get the whole network. The battle is to get the coin. A coin that now valuates about 1000$ a piece.

If they do it wrong, they can end up with a chain supporting a coin with much less value, which is not a good business.

So they want the network. That means much more work and persuasion. One month is not enough time. If they do it in the next month the chance for a fiasco is too big. They are smarter than to risk that.

TL;DR: The danger of hardfork in the next month is under 5%.

[travwill]

This is a great write up on one large risk for BU users in a split. If BItcoin Core and the smaller current 1mb implementations regain hash power majority in the future, say after BU has been running for years, the entire old BU chain would orphan potentially as it rejoins.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/how-bitcoin-unlimited-users-may-end-different-blockchains/

[lumeire]

https://coin.dance/blocks


So... when BU gets 50% there is high danger of hard fork?
What do you think are the chances that a hard fork happens in the next month in %?

TL;DR: The danger of hardfork in the next month is under 5%.

Might be an underestimation IMO. Some big fishes hasn't still decided where to commit.

[mike4001]

The chart looks interesting today

Last 1000 blocks still at 38,6% but the last 144 blocks are down to 34,7% for BU

Can of course be a coincidence and "BU-miners" found less blocks today than "segwit-miners".

https://coin.dance/blocks

[richardsNY]

the first part is the easy part. the closer it gets the harder it's gonna be to convince other miners to come on board. that's assuming that this jihan guy doesn't control 70-80% of the hashing which he probably does but doesn't want to admit right now.

Jihan Wu definitely accounts for a major part of the total hash power, but I don't think it's anywhere near the 70-80% you seem to be pointing at. Can you link me to an article or whatever else that somewhat 'confirms' your assumption? Other than that, things will indeed get more interesting when we come closer to the final point. I wouldn't even be surprised when certain pools suddenly drop their support for BU when things are about to get real serious.

[European Central Bank]

Other than that, things will indeed get more interesting when we come closer to the final point. I wouldn't even be surprised when certain pools suddenly drop their support for BU when things are about to get real serious.

nah. pure assumption but i am convinced he controls far more than he admits to.

maybe the 40-50% barrier is where it stalls if it manages to get there. that's when you might have to actually think this stuff through properly. it's getting close. i just can't see any rational person voting to push it through.

[digaran]

Time to switch pools no more Antpool, lets switch to any pools mining with Core(main version). if any one performs a hard fork without 95% of nodes consensus and +75% of hash power consensus deserves becoming alt coin and devalued. it doesn't make any sense, why are there different versions? if those developers think that they know better then why change anything in the code? go ahead and make your own alt coin or maybe they think by changing something they can have advantage over others?

[LittleBitFunny]

So... when BU gets 50% there is high danger of hard fork?

Well maybe, but not necessarily.  In theory BU would prefer to have upwards of 75% of support to go through, and this would be ideal if they want people to actually use the new coin.

What do you think are the chances that a hard fork happens in the next month in %?

in the next month In about 2-3 months (a more reasonable timeframe), it's pretty likely if less dedicated Core supporters start to conform out of a desire to get it over with.  If it happens though, most users might stick with classic Bitcoin, causing the new coin to be meaningless like ETC.

[hector3115]

More and more I am thinking that BU is just bluffing Core.  Once the hashrate supporting BU is a majority that will help their side in negotiations.  I think deep down no one wants a contentious hard fork that could risk not only Bitcoin but cryptocurrencies all together.

Miners are making money on high fees right now, but the majority of the money they make is based on the coin having a high value.  I'm not sure how crazy Jihan Wu is, but thats a big risk to your livelyhood.

[aardvark15]

So what happens to my Bitcoins if there is a hard fork? Do I have the same amount of both coins? Does an exchange get to decide in a situation where I have coins on an exchange?

[European Central Bank]

So what happens to my Bitcoins if there is a hard fork? Do I have the same amount of both coins? Does an exchange get to decide if I have coins on an exchange?

don't let an exchange decide what happens to your coins. some of them have some pretty weird policies and they're talking about freezing operations.

control your own private keys and your coins will have a carbon copy on the new chain so the amount will double. they certainly won't be worth double though.

[andyatcrux]

Antpool comprises of about 40% of that 38.6% signaling for BU. As far as I know Antpool is the only one that has publicly hinted at possibly wanting a hostile fork.  True consensus is 95% hashrate. I just don't see it playing out at this point. Community support is leaning Segwit by a large degree. (Yes, I know it is not hashrate, but community sentiment is informative).




https://coin.dance/poli

[aardvark15]

So what happens to my Bitcoins if there is a hard fork? Do I have the same amount of both coins? Does an exchange get to decide if I have coins on an exchange?

don't let an exchange decide what happens to your coins. some of them have some pretty weird policies and they're talking about freezing operations.

control your own private keys and your coins will have a carbon copy on the new chain so the amount will double. they certainly won't be worth double though.

I keep some Bitcoins on Poloniex for trading. Does anyone know how they handle customer's coins in a hard fork. What did Poloniex do with Etherium?

[lowbander80]

Don't keep any coins on an exchange just now no one needs to wait on a consensus.If BU think it has the miners and exchanges behind it a hard fork could happen anytime