BU adoption is stalled - hf is not in miners interest

[zby]

At https://coin.dance/blocks BU is stalled just below 40% of blocks ever since the recent crash. And there were less BU in the latest mined blocks (the last 144 blocks) than in the previous ones.  Miners would be crazy to push it any further and continue this FUD pressure on the price - they feel the results in their pay.

SegWit the opposite - ever since the dive the numbers grow.

[1714914936]

1714914936

[rogerwilco]

Small sample size, but numbers have flipped in the last 24 hours (37% SW vs 31% BU).

[Pursuer]

as a legendary member who posts a lot about blocks etc around the forum you should already know that finding blocks is a luck-based kind of thing which means the number (%%) is going to change up and down it is 37.5 right now and it will be 38.5 tomorrow and it will be 36.5 the next day and so on.
I wouldn't call it stall! the same way I didn't call it increase when antpool switched because these are meaningless numbers so far.

and none of it means anything. and no new change has happened. still there is the same 1 pool who switched 75% of its power to BU and for all we know he may have switched to BU to disagree with SegWit/core and not to support them. and he may even get out if he thinks BU is happening and prevent it from happening too.

in any case these are all guesses and are pointless.

[zby]

...
in any case these are all guesses and are pointless.

And yet guesses is all we have

Everything here is speculation - it is never about anything 100% sure - because those facts are already priced in. We weight various factors, estimate the probability and speculate.

The fluctuations are random - but this one persists over more than 4 days - so it does not seem so random any more.

BU loses battle after battle - first they have lost developers, there were embarrassing bugs found in the BU code - then they have lost most of the exchanges who declared to list BTU as an alt - and now the indicators show that they might start losing miners.

[d5000]

Small sample size, but numbers have flipped in the last 24 hours (37% SW vs 31% BU).

Yes, interesting observation. While BU's numbers seem to be inside the normal statistical variation, Segwit acceptance has definitively increased.

I think much will depend on what F2Pool decides to do (third largest pool as of March 26). Until now they don't signal neither for Segwit nor for BU. I have no recent statements from them, but they seemed Segwit friendly, although they said they would activate it first in Litecoin (where they haven't begun signalling it yet). Maybe their gamble is to stay with 1 MB a while more to drive the fees a bit higher first.

[zimmah]

Small sample size, but numbers have flipped in the last 24 hours (37% SW vs 31% BU).

Yes, interesting observation. While BU's numbers seem to be inside the normal statistical variation, Segwit acceptance has definitively increased.

I think much will depend on what F2Pool decides to do (third largest pool as of March 26). Until now they don't signal neither for Segwit nor for BU. I have no recent statements from them, but they seemed Segwit friendly, although they said they would activate it first in Litecoin (where they haven't begun signalling it yet). Maybe their gamble is to stay with 1 MB a while more to drive the fees a bit higher first.

they're playing a dangerous game either way.   

They're chocking the network and driving users away form bitcoin.   

Even if current holders keep holding, new adopters seem to prefer altcoins over bitcoin.

[Denker]

Small sample size, but numbers have flipped in the last 24 hours (37% SW vs 31% BU).

Yes, interesting observation. While BU's numbers seem to be inside the normal statistical variation, Segwit acceptance has definitively increased.

I think much will depend on what F2Pool decides to do (third largest pool as of March 26). Until now they don't signal neither for Segwit nor for BU. I have no recent statements from them, but they seemed Segwit friendly, although they said they would activate it first in Litecoin (where they haven't begun signalling it yet). Maybe their gamble is to stay with 1 MB a while more to drive the fees a bit higher first.

they're playing a dangerous game either way.    

They're chocking the network and driving users away form bitcoin.  

Even if current holders keep holding, new adopters seem to prefer altcoins over bitcoin.

Prefer alts in case of what? Usage? Probably not! Quick profit? Very likely!
So the new adopters are more speculators and traders! No problem!
Once they see that you can also make profits with a crypto over a longer period of time than just short term with alts where the risk to lose big is as big as to make big profits, they will shift some of their investments into Bitcoin! No doubt!

[quake313]

At https://coin.dance/blocks BU is stalled just below 40% of blocks ever since the recent crash. And there were less BU in the latest mined blocks (the last 144 blocks) than in the previous ones.  Miners would be crazy to push it any further and continue this FUD pressure on the price - they feel the results in their pay.

SegWit the opposite - ever since the dive the numbers grow.

f2pool looks like they may be planning to jump to SegWit soon.

https://twitter.com/f2pool_wangchun

[chopstick]

Just wait for the sustained price drop under 900 and ethereum breaks out over 100. Miners are going to switch to BU even more as they feel more threatened, especially when BTC hits <50% crypto marketshare.

The Great Forkening is coming. No one can stop it. But once it's concluded , the rocket ship can finally get locked and loaded again.

During the Forkening will be the best buy opportunity. Why? Because during the Fork we may very well see double digits again during the ensuing sell off, followed by a huge rise. I'm not joking, this could really happen.

Core is desperate, they're trying to force Segwit activation either through POW change or through UASF. It's quite sad really, to watch them get so desperate instead of admitting a basic truth - that they were wrong.

[york780]

Roger Ver already wanted to fork he said, and he will dump his 100 000 bitcoin on the market to buy BU coin. Man this is going to be a big big mess. Looks like bitcoin is getting manipulated already by whales to force the miners to choose for SegWit. Dont know where this is going.

[zby]

Roger Ver already wanted to fork he said,...

Yeah - that guy is not known for the best of judgement.

[Leonard2016]

Roger Ver already wanted to fork he said, and he will dump his 100 000 bitcoin on the market to buy BU coin. Man this is going to be a big big mess. Looks like bitcoin is getting manipulated already by whales to force the miners to choose for SegWit. Dont know where this is going.

he can't work with thin air, he needs miners support and BU doesn't have it.
these numbers of 30 something and 40 something percent are very misleading. they are both 0% support because no miner in their right minds would jepordize their million dollar investment to risk and fork at this stage.

[zby]

The problem is BU signalling grows again (for the last 144 blocks  is 47.8% - which is close to the level that should make people unconfortable). This might be just random fluctuations - I wish someone did the math to see what is reasonable for random distribution and what should start to worry us.

[zimmah]

Small sample size, but numbers have flipped in the last 24 hours (37% SW vs 31% BU).

Yes, interesting observation. While BU's numbers seem to be inside the normal statistical variation, Segwit acceptance has definitively increased.

I think much will depend on what F2Pool decides to do (third largest pool as of March 26). Until now they don't signal neither for Segwit nor for BU. I have no recent statements from them, but they seemed Segwit friendly, although they said they would activate it first in Litecoin (where they haven't begun signalling it yet). Maybe their gamble is to stay with 1 MB a while more to drive the fees a bit higher first.

they're playing a dangerous game either way.    

They're chocking the network and driving users away form bitcoin.  

Even if current holders keep holding, new adopters seem to prefer altcoins over bitcoin.

Prefer alts in case of what? Usage? Probably not! Quick profit? Very likely!
So the new adopters are more speculators and traders! No problem!
Once they see that you can also make profits with a crypto over a longer period of time than just short term with alts where the risk to lose big is as big as to make big profits, they will shift some of their investments into Bitcoin! No doubt!

Bitcoin market share compared to total cryptocurrencies dropped from 95% to 65% so this is a big drop.     
 
It's pretty worrisome that bitcoin lost so much ground to altcoins, because the network effect is the main reason people consider bitcoin as the best crypto.     
   
Bitcoin can only stay at the top if it keeps the trust of investors, if investors lose trust, bitcoin will crumble and altcoins will take their share, and it will be very hard or even impossible for bitcoin to recover.