mtgox claims $5 to $20 million per day incoming funds...

[Kazu]

Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  

Easy - "MtGox is lying"
 

I guess two of the last three charts on the following site are also lying as well right? Bids total is the highest ever. lol. Fail much?

http://blockchained.com/

I'll declare victory when asks goes below 100k

[smoothie]

Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  

Easy - "MtGox is lying"
 

I guess two of the last three charts on the following site are also lying as well right? Bids total is the highest ever. lol. Fail much?

http://blockchained.com/

Don't worry, I was 100% trolling. I'm more than a bull, I'm a bull moose:

Bull > Moose > Bear

[ElectricMucus]

Man, the fact that that money's not going out means people are thinking about putting it back in.

I think we're on the verge of another bubble... already!

This time I'm betting we'll be going up, up, up, without the nasty crash of last time.

The fact that there is so little delay between those bubbles makes me think that this time we will have higher highs and probably higher lows then during the last bubble but not that much difference in between. Maybe we'll top out at 350$/BTC or so but we wont go to 1000$ straight away because not much has changed during the last bubble. Infrastructure still has to be built, money has to flow in, people have to wrap their heads around it before they invest.
After the coming bubble's burst we shoud be able to see the big underlying trend and trend channel that all the coming bubbles will follow for some time.
I envision something like that:

Yes that's exactly what will happen.

[mp420]

The funds will subside when the hype runs out.

[RationalSpeculator]

Like many indicators, money at the exchange is also a lagging indicator.

There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.

Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.


Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.

Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.

Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.

[jubalix]

Man, the fact that that money's not going out means people are thinking about putting it back in.

I think we're on the verge of another bubble... already!

This time I'm betting we'll be going up, up, up, without the nasty crash of last time.

The fact that there is so little delay between those bubbles makes me think that this time we will have higher highs and probably higher lows then during the last bubble but not that much difference in between. Maybe we'll top out at 350$/BTC or so but we wont go to 1000$ straight away because not much has changed during the last bubble. Infrastructure still has to be built, money has to flow in, people have to wrap their heads around it before they invest.
After the coming bubble's burst we shoud be able to see the big underlying trend and trend channel that all the coming bubbles will follow for some time.
I envision something like that:

This +9000

[zby]

Like many indicators, money at the exchange is also a lagging indicator.

There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.

Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.


Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.

Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.

Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.

Kind of - but when there is no money on MtGox then it will go down no matter how bullish people are - because there will be some bears and they'll push it down and vice versa when there is so much money then even if people just try out without really changing moods, but just checking the winds - even that can push the price up and I believe that this is what is just happening.

[Spekulatius]

Like many indicators, money at the exchange is also a lagging indicator.

There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.

Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.


Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.

Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.

Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.

Kind of - but when there is no money on MtGox then it will go down no matter how bullish people are - because there will be some bears and they'll push it down and vice versa when there is so much money then even if people just try out without really changing moods, but just checking the winds - even that can push the price up and I believe that this is what is just happening.

Amount of deposits in exchanges follows price rise: I agree
Positive feedback loop of price rise and deposit rise: I agree

Now pls mind the following:
When there is stagnating price or even falling price but still an increase of deposited amounts in exchanges, what does this entail?..
Correct, a powerful correction to the upside! Because all this fiat money only has one way to go once it is in the exchanges: -> ฿TC.

[Piper67]

Like many indicators, money at the exchange is also a lagging indicator.

There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.

Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.


Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.

Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.

Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.

Kind of - but when there is no money on MtGox then it will go down no matter how bullish people are - because there will be some bears and they'll push it down and vice versa when there is so much money then even if people just try out without really changing moods, but just checking the winds - even that can push the price up and I believe that this is what is just happening.

Amount of deposits in exchanges follows price rise: I agree
Positive feedback loop of price rise and deposit rise: I agree

Now pls mind the following:
When there is stagnating price or even falling price but still an increase of deposited amounts in exchanges, what does this entail?..
Correct, a powerful correction to the upside! Because all this fiat money only has one way to go once it is in the exchanges: -> ฿TC.

In other words, people don't tend to go through the trouble of sending money into MtGox if all they want to do is then pull that money out and buy bubble gum. 

[Odalv]

You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)

- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)

Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask  Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox

[crazy_rabbit]

You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)

- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)

Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask  Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox

Somehow I think if you have 1 million dollars, and are willing to wire 1 million dollars to a company in Japan, I think you've got all these other bases covered.

[gizmoh]

You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)

- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)

Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask  Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox

Yes i'm really pissed off with their arbitrary rules, why is it not necessary to verify with legal apostille documents when sending $1 million but is an obligation for withdrawals..

[crazy_rabbit]

You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)

- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)

Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask  Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox

Yes i'm really pissed off with their arbitrary rules, why is it not necessary to verify with legal apostille documents when sending $1 million but is an obligation for withdrawals..

Because the way the law is written, it's their duty to "know their customer". They know who they are, so they are more then happy to take your money. That's the safe part. Letting anyone withdraw money is when it's important to prove to the government they didn't send a million dollars out into some phoney bank account where the mafia paid some homeless guy to set up a bank account with a fake name in some crazy country. They can't stop that from happening, but they need to show the government the homeless guys ID at leat.

[Come-from-Beyond]

Some bullish news: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1cxdrr/reuters_tv_interview_with_mt_gox_in_tokyo/

Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day

That means that in April between $100 million and $400 million was added to the market. When confidence is restored, the price could go ballistic once again.

Nope. This means only that Mark Karpeles bought coins at higher price and now wants to sell them. Proof? Look at the current flat graph, he obviously has no fiat to initiate new swings.

[adamstgBit]

Man, the fact that that money's not going out means people are thinking about putting it back in.

I think we're on the verge of another bubble... already!

This time I'm betting we'll be going up, up, up, without the nasty crash of last time.

The fact that there is so little delay between those bubbles makes me think that this time we will have higher highs and probably higher lows then during the last bubble but not that much difference in between. Maybe we'll top out at 350$/BTC or so but we wont go to 1000$ straight away because not much has changed during the last bubble. Infrastructure still has to be built, money has to flow in, people have to wrap their heads around it before they invest.
After the coming bubble's burst we shoud be able to see the big underlying trend and trend channel that all the coming bubbles will follow for some time.
I envision something like that:

lol yes this is what i'm expecting as well.

its going to be a wild ride!

[RationalSpeculator]

Because the way the law is written, it's their duty to "know their customer". They know who they are, so they are more then happy to take your money. That's the safe part. Letting anyone withdraw money is when it's important to prove to the government they didn't send a million dollars out into some phoney bank account where the mafia paid some homeless guy to set up a bank account with a fake name in some crazy country. They can't stop that from happening, but they need to show the government the homeless guys ID at leat.

Thank you for explaining this.

[RationalSpeculator]

Like many indicators, money at the exchange is also a lagging indicator.

There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.

Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.


Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.

Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.

Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.

Kind of - but when there is no money on MtGox then it will go down no matter how bullish people are - because there will be some bears and they'll push it down and vice versa when there is so much money then even if people just try out without really changing moods, but just checking the winds - even that can push the price up and I believe that this is what is just happening.

My theory is not 'kind of', it is either right or wrong.

[RationalSpeculator]

Amount of deposits in exchanges follows price rise: I agree
Positive feedback loop of price rise and deposit rise: I agree

Now pls mind the following:
When there is stagnating price or even falling price but still an increase of deposited amounts in exchanges, what does this entail?..
Correct, a powerful correction to the upside! Because all this fiat money only has one way to go once it is in the exchanges: -> ฿TC.

What does it entail?

Nothing about the future price. It's a lagging indicator. It says that there must have been a price rise in the past.  

I think you are letting your hopes speak over your ratio.

[Brushan]

Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day

Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day

That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.

Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.

Thoughts?

You forget that the Bitcoin marketcap is not really the "real" marketcap. Many coins are lost or in cold storage. At least half were lost last time i heard. Which means that the marketcap of the movable coins is alot smaller than 1400M USD and that is why the price moves faster than 1% per day.

[RationalSpeculator]

In other words, people don't tend to go through the trouble of sending money into MtGox if all they want to do is then pull that money out and buy bubble gum. 

Sure, many of them will buy bitcoin. But many will sell them bitcoin too. I think it does not say anything about where the price will go.