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Author Topic: Dont panic and Sell...  (Read 1748 times)
WiseOldOwl
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June 17, 2011, 06:42:35 PM
 #1

It would be very unwise for miners to sell right now. Just putting it out there if anyone is worried and considering dumping. This fluctuation should resolve itself within a day or so. Buying right now is actually a better decision (anywhere below 16 isn't too bad, but 12 would be sweet).
All IMO

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June 17, 2011, 06:46:26 PM
 #2

It would be very unwise for miners to sell right now. Just putting it out there if anyone is worried and considering dumping. This fluctuation should resolve itself within a day or so. Buying right now is actually a better decision (anywhere below 16 isn't too bad, but 12 would be sweet).
All IMO

That's exactly what a person about to cash in would say  Wink
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June 17, 2011, 06:49:40 PM
 #3

My (somewhat flawed) model shows that in 6 difficulties coins are going to be incredibly hard to come buy for average miners.

I plan to wait until 6 difficulties from now to see what the market is doing.

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WiseOldOwl
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June 17, 2011, 06:56:59 PM
 #4

It would be very unwise for miners to sell right now. Just putting it out there if anyone is worried and considering dumping. This fluctuation should resolve itself within a day or so. Buying right now is actually a better decision (anywhere below 16 isn't too bad, but 12 would be sweet).
All IMO

That's exactly what a person about to cash in would say  Wink

That is true, But i guess since the majority of my coins come from mining so i am always "about to cash in", that is the mentality most miners have.
I would not and could not sell my coins at 12 bucks, it just isnt worth it i haven''t been doing this long enough. Also they are worth more now than ever when correlating difficulty in.
Just some words of advice, it is what it is.
And If i was selling coins why would i be telling people to buy around 12 instead of 16???
And if I was buying them I wouldn't be telling people not to sell them.
It truly is just some sideline advice.

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June 17, 2011, 07:00:17 PM
 #5

Difficulty does not determine price, as shown by recent events, (diff increased from 500k to 800k, price went from $19 to $13)

Difficulty is a lagging indicator of price, meaning price move FIRST, and then difficulty follows. The move from 500k to 800k, and even to 1.2M is the result of the price skyrocketing to $30 earlier this month. If price keep going down from now on, difficulty will soon start decreasing due to no new miners putting rigs up online, and existing miners deciding to sell their equipment.

My (somewhat flawed) model shows that in 6 difficulties coins are going to be incredibly hard to come buy for average miners.

I plan to wait until 6 difficulties from now to see what the market is doing.

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WiseOldOwl
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June 17, 2011, 07:09:17 PM
 #6

100% agree, difficulty being a lagging indicator is a fact. But i dont think so short termed. I am coming from a real world financial background, and getting a profit in 6 months to 9 months (or for a lot of people at all) is good in today's day and age. The lenient time constraints with bitcoin are spoiling my financial side, although my tech side is just as impatient as ever and wants the price to adjust within like 3 blocks and a red bull Smiley
But I know that my 20$ bitcoin I mined will be worth more later (If no catastrophic events happen to bitcoin). And that "later" is a lot sooner then the laters im used too.

Bottom line is if it costs x to mine it then price will eventually reflect that... = you should hold your mined bitcoins for a period of time before selling to hedge against the market lagging i guess.

I havent done this but it seems logical.


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June 17, 2011, 07:11:56 PM
 #7

Here's the way I see things. What happens when it becomes more difficult to mine stuff in the physical world? What happens when oil is harder to find? The price goes up.

The difficulty just went up a lot. The price was around $20 for a while. Now since it's harder to mine, I value my coins at a higher rate than $20 per coin. I wouldn't sell a coin for less than $25 now. But that's just me. It'll take an entire community of like minded people to make that happen. Either way, if bitcoins fall low, I'm going to buy them at their low price. No matter what, I know I'm winning. Prices went low? Fine. I'll buy some coins before they go back up. Prices set new record high? Good. That's a very potential future value for them that I can base some estimates on. If it goes up too high and I know it's too high, I might sell some coins before the speculation bubble bursts and buy again after. Don't worry, guys. Just play it smart. Don't take too much risk but don't be too cautious either and you'll make a few bucks. Don't worry about people panicking or hoarding. You can take advantage of both situations.

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June 17, 2011, 07:15:04 PM
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Here's the way I see things. What happens when it becomes more difficult to mine stuff in the physical world? What happens when oil is harder to find? The price goes up.

The difficulty just went up a lot. The price was around $20 for a while. Now since it's harder to mine, I value my coins at a higher rate than $20 per coin. I wouldn't sell a coin for less than $25 now. But that's just me. It'll take an entire community of like minded people to make that happen. Either way, if bitcoins fall low, I'm going to buy them at their low price. No matter what, I know I'm winning. Prices went low? Fine. I'll buy some coins before they go back up. Prices set new record high? Good. That's a very potential future value for them that I can base some estimates on. If it goes up too high and I know it's too high, I might sell some coins before the speculation bubble bursts and buy again after. Don't worry, guys. Just play it smart. Don't take too much risk but don't be too cautious either and you'll make a few bucks. Don't worry about people panicking or hoarding. You can take advantage of both situations.

Couldn't Agree more
We dont need a miners union to set a price (some people were trying to start this, ...a union??) or anything, we just need people who now how to value an asset lol and profit off of the fluctuations. I swear I was talking about this with someone check my posts lol.

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June 17, 2011, 07:21:53 PM
 #9

No, actually that's wrong. The main factor in determining the pricing of a commodity (such as oil/gold), is DEMAND, NOT difficulty to mine (though difficulty to mine may establish a pricing floor for the commodity, as anything below the floor will just make mining unprofitable and mining would cease).  Platinum is 40 times more scarce than gold and as a result 40 times harder to mine, but its price is just slightly more than gold. Why? Because it doesn't have 40X DEMAND.

At the current difficulty, the pricing floor for bitcoin is around $2-$3 (cover electricity and a tiny profit) with a paid off rig.

and let's not forget there are tons of bored people with idle GPU that would mine just for fun, even with negative profit.

Here's the way I see things. What happens when it becomes more difficult to mine stuff in the physical world? What happens when oil is harder to find? The price goes up.

The difficulty just went up a lot. The price was around $20 for a while. Now since it's harder to mine, I value my coins at a higher rate than $20 per coin. I wouldn't sell a coin for less than $25 now. But that's just me. It'll take an entire community of like minded people to make that happen. Either way, if bitcoins fall low, I'm going to buy them at their low price. No matter what, I know I'm winning. Prices went low? Fine. I'll buy some coins before they go back up. Prices set new record high? Good. That's a very potential future value for them that I can base some estimates on. If it goes up too high and I know it's too high, I might sell some coins before the speculation bubble bursts and buy again after. Don't worry, guys. Just play it smart. Don't take too much risk but don't be too cautious either and you'll make a few bucks. Don't worry about people panicking or hoarding. You can take advantage of both situations.

If my post has been helpful, send me some love -> BTC: 1kokojUapmWqCqPw3Ch2rjcVh57tJEzka | PPC: PDyXAgA8eH47gokVW6zVZPSuu15aao5nZF | Bitshares: kokojie
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June 17, 2011, 07:37:18 PM
 #10

No, actually that's wrong. The main factor in determining the pricing of a commodity (such as oil/gold), is DEMAND, NOT difficulty to mine (though difficulty to mine may establish a pricing floor for the commodity, as anything below the floor will just make mining unprofitable and mining would cease).  Platinum is 40 times more scarce than gold and as a result 40 times harder to mine, but its price is just slightly more than gold. Why? Because it doesn't have 40X DEMAND.

At the current difficulty, the pricing floor for bitcoin is around $2-$3 (cover electricity and a tiny profit) with a paid off rig.

and let's not forget there are tons of bored people with idle GPU that would mine just for fun, even with negative profit.

Here's the way I see things. What happens when it becomes more difficult to mine stuff in the physical world? What happens when oil is harder to find? The price goes up.

The difficulty just went up a lot. The price was around $20 for a while. Now since it's harder to mine, I value my coins at a higher rate than $20 per coin. I wouldn't sell a coin for less than $25 now. But that's just me. It'll take an entire community of like minded people to make that happen. Either way, if bitcoins fall low, I'm going to buy them at their low price. No matter what, I know I'm winning. Prices went low? Fine. I'll buy some coins before they go back up. Prices set new record high? Good. That's a very potential future value for them that I can base some estimates on. If it goes up too high and I know it's too high, I might sell some coins before the speculation bubble bursts and buy again after. Don't worry, guys. Just play it smart. Don't take too much risk but don't be too cautious either and you'll make a few bucks. Don't worry about people panicking or hoarding. You can take advantage of both situations.

I'm not disagreeing with this. That's why I said "But that's just me. It'll take an entire community of like minded people to make that happen."

ie: everyone else's demand matches mine

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June 17, 2011, 07:38:35 PM
 #11

Miners can't create demand, miners can only create supply. You are asking bitcoin users to subsidize miner's unrealistic profit expectations.

No, actually that's wrong. The main factor in determining the pricing of a commodity (such as oil/gold), is DEMAND, NOT difficulty to mine (though difficulty to mine may establish a pricing floor for the commodity, as anything below the floor will just make mining unprofitable and mining would cease).  Platinum is 40 times more scarce than gold and as a result 40 times harder to mine, but its price is just slightly more than gold. Why? Because it doesn't have 40X DEMAND.

At the current difficulty, the pricing floor for bitcoin is around $2-$3 (cover electricity and a tiny profit) with a paid off rig.

and let's not forget there are tons of bored people with idle GPU that would mine just for fun, even with negative profit.

Here's the way I see things. What happens when it becomes more difficult to mine stuff in the physical world? What happens when oil is harder to find? The price goes up.

The difficulty just went up a lot. The price was around $20 for a while. Now since it's harder to mine, I value my coins at a higher rate than $20 per coin. I wouldn't sell a coin for less than $25 now. But that's just me. It'll take an entire community of like minded people to make that happen. Either way, if bitcoins fall low, I'm going to buy them at their low price. No matter what, I know I'm winning. Prices went low? Fine. I'll buy some coins before they go back up. Prices set new record high? Good. That's a very potential future value for them that I can base some estimates on. If it goes up too high and I know it's too high, I might sell some coins before the speculation bubble bursts and buy again after. Don't worry, guys. Just play it smart. Don't take too much risk but don't be too cautious either and you'll make a few bucks. Don't worry about people panicking or hoarding. You can take advantage of both situations.

I'm not disagreeing with this. That's why I said "But that's just me. It'll take an entire community of like minded people to make that happen."

ie: everyone else's demand matches mine

If my post has been helpful, send me some love -> BTC: 1kokojUapmWqCqPw3Ch2rjcVh57tJEzka | PPC: PDyXAgA8eH47gokVW6zVZPSuu15aao5nZF | Bitshares: kokojie
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WiseOldOwl
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June 17, 2011, 07:40:25 PM
 #12

Supply and Demand are both involved...

I dont think it is a issue either way. It is designed to even itself out. It is always relative, but has fluctuations along the way. difficulty goes up, less people mine, difficulty drops, more coins per hash, more people mine, difficulty goes up, etc.

All the while the underlying size of the bitcoin network is growing.
I read that in the beginning (2009) a btc was valued at $.05.
I really dont care what happens along the way if i make .05 into even a dollar.
Or a dollar in February or whatever, and now it is at 12, the other day at 30.
It will grow and grow and deflate and deflate...its truly genius.
Pretty difficult to explain all the ways it works in our benefit, I am constantly realizing new ones.

I dont see it dropping to $2. period.

Also I think he is saying he will wait until the market is willing to pay 25. not force it on them now.

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June 17, 2011, 07:43:28 PM
 #13

Here's the way I see things. What happens when it becomes more difficult to mine stuff in the physical world? What happens when oil is harder to find? The price goes up.

The difficulty just went up a lot. The price was around $20 for a while. Now since it's harder to mine, I value my coins at a higher rate than $20 per coin. I wouldn't sell a coin for less than $25 now. But that's just me. It'll take an entire community of like minded people to make that happen. Either way, if bitcoins fall low, I'm going to buy them at their low price. No matter what, I know I'm winning. Prices went low? Fine. I'll buy some coins before they go back up. Prices set new record high? Good. That's a very potential future value for them that I can base some estimates on. If it goes up too high and I know it's too high, I might sell some coins before the speculation bubble bursts and buy again after. Don't worry, guys. Just play it smart. Don't take too much risk but don't be too cautious either and you'll make a few bucks. Don't worry about people panicking or hoarding. You can take advantage of both situations.
Well said, i couldnt of said it any better myself
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June 17, 2011, 07:59:51 PM
 #14

Yes, Supply and Demand.

The reason why the price is dropping right because lots of people cashing out selling BTCs, meaning the supply is up and there are lots of BTCs available.

Wait until those BTCs get sold out and then people start looking for it again.. by then the demand will rise and obviously the price, too.

Just continue mining, sit back and relax. Go out this weekend, go to the mall, watch some movies... heck just stop staring at your deepbit stats! LOL!! Or at least stop refreshing your Mt.Gox page every 2 seconds - you're causing DDOS attack!!




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June 17, 2011, 08:39:45 PM
 #15

Maybe we should each try to get some friends/family/acquaintances/people we randomly encounter to check out Bitcoin.

The more users, the more demand for that which we mine!
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