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区块链协议战争中谁将是最后的赢家?比特币 OR ETH?
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Topic: 区块链协议战争中谁将是最后的赢家?比特币 OR ETH? (Read 288 times)
joymanny
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区块链协议战争中谁将是最后的赢家?比特币 OR ETH?
April 06, 2017, 12:52:59 PM
#1
近期ETH价格的增长(ETH市值达到近50亿美元,是比特币市值的30%)令我不禁开始重新审视自己的想法:在未来的某一时刻,ETH能否取代比特币成为加密货币市场的主导?
出于各种网络效应,我抱有一种加密货币“极权主义”观点。我认为最终只会有一种协议赢得80%以上的市场份额。基于这一想法,目前我对生态系统的发展存在双重观点:要么比特币赢,要么ETH赢。
经过与比特币的对比,以下是我针对ETH区块链提出的假定:
-“图灵脆弱的”,也就是说遭受攻击的可能性很高
- 向后兼容能力弱
- 正在朝中心化的未来发展
- 交易完成的不确定性(易受篡改)
- PoS算法效率低于PoW
- ETH区块链膨胀的可能性高于比特币,最终导致部署风险更高的路线,比如说sharding
基于这些想法,我始终认为比特币将继续主导加密货币市场的发展。
然而,近期发生的事件令我产生了动摇:
- 企业以太坊联盟(EEA)的成立收获了意想不到的效果,ETH项目在金融领域的可信度也得到了提升
- 比特币面临着扩容瓶颈,短期内很难彻底解决
- ETH目前的链上交易费用远远低于比特币
- ETH的灵活性特点吸引了大批开发者
- 一些项目已经转移到ETH平台,或者已经在创建ETH应用:Brave、Storj、Shapeshift
- 纽约金融服务部(DFS)已经正式授权Coinbase上线ETH交易
我仍然对ETH区块链的长期保值功能(以及其持久力)心存怀疑,但无论如何我开始认真考虑以下问题:
- 万一ETH网络攻击可以得到有效控制,或者市场更倾向于接受硬分叉干预怎么办?
- 万一市场上大多数人都想要一个处于中心化管理模式中的加密货币怎么办?
- 万一ETH开发者社区趁着比特币面临僵局的时候开始占上风怎么办?
- 万一ETH通过支付通道解决了扩容难题怎么办?根据Raiden(ETH版的闪电网络)团队所说,这一软件离正式发布已经不远了。
- 万一ETH成功运行PoS机制,并且说服人们相信PoW是一种资源浪费怎么办?
简单来说就是,万一ETH成功转型为一种完美的加密货币,最终赢得了这场协议战争怎么办?
再举个简单的例子,Betamax的画质比VHS更清晰(两者都是磁带格式),但VHS的营销策略更好,磁带的播放时间也更长,恰好适应了市场需求。
因此,我看到了ETH的另一面:
- 比特币一直都是一个不可更改的账簿(适合用于长期保值),而ETH的交易历史则是可干预的
- 比特币开发者活动胜过ETH
- 比特币有100个核心开发者,ETH有几个???
- 核心开发者Vlad Zamfir:ETH不是货币,并不安全,延展性不强
- ICOs、ETH以及ETC的法律问题,SEC余波
- Buterin和Zamfir扩容(Casper)思路存在分歧
- 未来面临的扩容问题,比如说“在不存在其它信任来源的情况下,PoS区块链交易历史的‘真实性’是很难判断的”以及sharding……
- 通胀率是未知数(货币发行量未作限制)
- 没有确定性的价值主张
而比特币也藏着几张王牌:
- 隔离见证(Segwit)可以通过UASF激活,直接绕开矿工并且即刻激活alpha状态的闪电支付(就算这种方法失败,闪电网络也能在不激活SW的前提下进行部署)。
- Rootstock能够向比特币输送ETH的技术。
- 侧链(Sidechains)即将推出,这种技术不需要SW激活也能对额外的功能进行测试(任何人都能在侧链上获得低成本的区块空间)。
如果未来真的只有一种加密货币能够占据优势,并成为“互联网资产”,那么大多数资本投入都将存在风险。因此,回答这一问题显得尤为重要:谁才是这场协议战争的胜利者,比特币还是ETH?
为了找出这一问题的答案,首先要解答下列问题:
- 在比特币和ETH中部署支付通道(闪电网络和Raiden)分别需要面临什么挑战?
- 目前ETH是否存在非投机性用例?(人们都拿ETH来干什么?)以及通过ETH智能合约获取收益的都是哪些企业?
- 是否存在量化ETH和比特币安全模式的方法?
- 如何评估比特币和ETH核心开发工作的数量和质量?
- 历史上是否存在类似的协议战争?
- 针对区块链膨胀和sharding都做过哪些安全分析?
感谢阅读本篇文章,我很希望听到您的意见及想法。
目前我持有比特币,但不持有ETH。
nidkekr
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Re: 区块链协议战争中谁将是最后的赢家?比特币 OR ETH?
April 06, 2017, 05:03:07 PM
#2
个人认为ETH应该持有一部分,现在很多应用都是在eth平台了
pastcard
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Re: 区块链协议战争中谁将是最后的赢家?比特币 OR ETH?
April 07, 2017, 01:22:27 AM
#3
eth转pos觉得价格会下滑
SUN996
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Re: 区块链协议战争中谁将是最后的赢家?比特币 OR ETH?
April 07, 2017, 01:44:18 AM
#4
扩容撕逼下去,山寨币肯定是最后的赢家
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