490,000 Avalon chips already ordered - 150T/hash spike coming in August

[Dalkore]

Check it out:

https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

China-based Forum Discussion:

http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2207

Difficulty will be increasing like you don't know.  Hope you understand how this mining will play out.  


Thoughts?
-Dalkore

[qiuness]

what the hell?

this thread had 4 pages?!

[Rallye]

its self moderated, so the OP is deleting peoples posts?

[LeroyB]

I'm no expert.  But I highly doubt that everyone that's ordering these chips will already have a production line with PCB in place.  This is also assuming that their hardware will be able to push the full 282Mh/s for each chip.  I agree that there will be a HUGE spike, but I think everyone is assuming everything will go right.

From my experience, things that can go wrong, will go wrong.

[Dalkore]

its self moderated, so the OP is deleting peoples posts?

Nope, this is a different thread, being that it is in a different sub-category.

[LeroyB]

Might sound crazy... maybe BFL is ordering a bunch of Avalon chips. 

this is the Mining Speculation section after all... 

[Viceroy]

What is the impact of this onslaught of chips?  We know the difficulty is rising, up to a billion.  Is there any device out that that actually pays for itself now?  As best I can tell any ASIC solution fails to generate any profit, right?  How can anyone make money mining now?  Even if BTC hits $1000 per coin I have a hard time understanding why anyone would mine any coin.




Hey all you board designers who are thinking about building with these chips come talk to me:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=187408

[LeroyB]

I think people saying we are approaching a difficulty of 1 billion in the near future are a bit lost.

Since BFL is just a figment of everyone's imagination for now until they actually ship mass products, let's focus on Avalon these Avalon chips at the moment.

So let's look at some theoretical numbers for a moment...

For a difficulty of 1 billion that would mean the network hashrate would be at 7,158.39 TH/s.  That is confirmed, as it's a simple mathematical calculation.

Now if you assume that the network hashrate and difficulty would get even close to that, that means EVERYONE is mining with ASIC as anything else wouldn't make any sense.  Let's assume all these chips come from Avalon since they're the only ones that are ACTUALLY shipping and seem legit.

We know that these Avalon chips produce 282MH/s each. 

You would need in excess of 25 Million Avalon chips to create that kind of hashrate.  Although this is theoretically possible, I don't think it's plausible. 

Anyone else want to weigh in on this?

[jermwerty]

Good!  FINALLY a speculation thread about this...

MY PREDICTION:

Chips are produced but SHIP 2 MONTHS LATE...  So OCTOBER maybe?   

If Avalon is reading this:

Please consider your previous customers, Batch #2 guys are still waiting!

[Viceroy]

Nope, this is a different thread, being that it is in a different sub-category.

People are confused by the title.  Maybe call this one:
What happens now that 1/2 million Avalon chips are shipping?

[zero-asic]

Having previously worked in electronics manufacturing I think that saying a spike is coming in August is premature to say the least.  The chips might ship later in the year than expected and once they do ship they can't go into play for at least another month and that's if a custom board can be fabricated in that amount of time.  This doesn't include development time or testing for those boards, though samples may be sent out in advance.  Once the chips have arrived they have to be machine placed on the boards and then they're either packaged for sale or relocated to a permanent facility with appropriate power and cooling.

All of this is neglecting the fact that the chips won't ship all at once or to the same person.  It might take another year for all the chips to get powered up if some are being sold retail.  The ASIC push will eventually cool down.

[computerparts]

Having previously worked in electronics manufacturing I think that saying a spike is coming in August is premature to say the least.  The chips might ship later in the year than expected and once they do ship they can't go into play for at least another month and that's if a custom board can be fabricated in that amount of time.  This doesn't include development time or testing for those boards, though samples may be sent out in advance.  Once the chips have arrived they have to be machine placed on the boards and then they're either packaged for sale or relocated to a permanent facility with appropriate power and cooling.

All of this is neglecting the fact that the chips won't ship all at once or to the same person.  It might take another year for all the chips to get powered up if they're being sold retail.  The ASIC push will eventually cool down.

This makes sense but it seems you're only taking into account Avalon chips. There's still Avalon batch 2, 3, BFL, and there's asicminer yet to come. So there most definitely will be a spike around the month of August.

[zero-asic]

Having previously worked in electronics manufacturing I think that saying a spike is coming in August is premature to say the least.  The chips might ship later in the year than expected and once they do ship they can't go into play for at least another month and that's if a custom board can be fabricated in that amount of time.  This doesn't include development time or testing for those boards, though samples may be sent out in advance.  Once the chips have arrived they have to be machine placed on the boards and then they're either packaged for sale or relocated to a permanent facility with appropriate power and cooling.

All of this is neglecting the fact that the chips won't ship all at once or to the same person.  It might take another year for all the chips to get powered up if they're being sold retail.  The ASIC push will eventually cool down.

This makes sense but it seems you're only taking into account Avalon chips. There's still Avalon batch 2, 3, BFL, and there's asicminer yet to come. So there most definitely will be a spike around the month of August.

You are correct, that is a spike.  I was only talking about a spike due to chip sales.  The device manufacturers won't ship all at ones either.  It might be more like a big hill than a spike.  The hash rate is going to go up faster than it has before, but it will probably eventually cool down after this big push.  A year from now things will be quite different.

[MrTeal]

Having previously worked in electronics manufacturing I think that saying a spike is coming in August is premature to say the least.  The chips might ship later in the year than expected and once they do ship they can't go into play for at least another month and that's if a custom board can be fabricated in that amount of time.  This doesn't include development time or testing for those boards, though samples may be sent out in advance.  Once the chips have arrived they have to be machine placed on the boards and then they're either packaged for sale or relocated to a permanent facility with appropriate power and cooling.

All of this is neglecting the fact that the chips won't ship all at once or to the same person.  It might take another year for all the chips to get powered up if they're being sold retail.  The ASIC push will eventually cool down.

This makes sense but it seems you're only taking into account Avalon chips. There's still Avalon batch 2, 3, BFL, and there's asicminer yet to come. So there most definitely will be a spike around the month of August.

You are correct, that is a spike.  I was only talking about a spike due to chip sales.  The device manufacturers won't ship all at ones either.  It might be more like a big hill than a spike.  The hash rate is going to go up faster than it has before, but it will probably eventually cool down after this big push.  A year from now things will be quite different.

Avalon has said that reference designs and chip samples would be provided in May. While shipping a few weeks after the chips arrive is very unlikely, by the time bulk chips arrive the really serious customers should have boards designed, built and tested by then. There's still going to be huge teething issues related to mass production, but I would be shocked if the serious players ordering 200k chips would not have vetted systems and are having to start custom PCBs mid-summer.

[zero-asic]

Having previously worked in electronics manufacturing I think that saying a spike is coming in August is premature to say the least.  The chips might ship later in the year than expected and once they do ship they can't go into play for at least another month and that's if a custom board can be fabricated in that amount of time.  This doesn't include development time or testing for those boards, though samples may be sent out in advance.  Once the chips have arrived they have to be machine placed on the boards and then they're either packaged for sale or relocated to a permanent facility with appropriate power and cooling.

All of this is neglecting the fact that the chips won't ship all at once or to the same person.  It might take another year for all the chips to get powered up if they're being sold retail.  The ASIC push will eventually cool down.

This makes sense but it seems you're only taking into account Avalon chips. There's still Avalon batch 2, 3, BFL, and there's asicminer yet to come. So there most definitely will be a spike around the month of August.

You are correct, that is a spike.  I was only talking about a spike due to chip sales.  The device manufacturers won't ship all at ones either.  It might be more like a big hill than a spike.  The hash rate is going to go up faster than it has before, but it will probably eventually cool down after this big push.  A year from now things will be quite different.

Avalon has said that reference designs and chip samples would be provided in May. While shipping a few weeks after the chips arrive is very unlikely, by the time bulk chips arrive the really serious customers should have boards designed, built and tested by then. There's still going to be huge teething issues related to mass production, but I would be shocked if the serious players ordering 200k chips would not have vetted systems and are having to start custom PCBs mid-summer.

So some of those chips might actually be available for resale by the end of august.

[bcpokey]

Chip resale is unlikely. The only sellers would be scammers, people with bad/harmed chips, small fry who didn't realize it's hard to DIY, or those who bought before bitcoin crashed/surged in difficulty (meaning no incentive to buy).

There might be a few who bought specifically to resell, but that would be at a premium, compared to today's prices, which might or might not be worthwhile. I wouldn't expect reselling to be a big thing.

[Frizz23]

So in August we will have many of those:

[Gabi]

Yeah, August 2014...

[Dalkore]

Address is up to BTC49,000.

[ewitte]

At the rate things are moving it will likely be at least 6 months before ASIC has a significant impact on difficulty.  Probably 2014 before GPUs are completely useless.