490,000 Avalon chips already ordered - 150T/hash spike coming in August

[ecliptic]

Also related

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=192916.msg1999706#msg1999706

Sorry but I don't exactly follow, what do you mean you bought batch (#10177)?  You bought 10,177 chips?  Order #10,177 on avalon?  There surely haven't been 10,177 orders for 10,000 chips..

I purchased order #10177. I don't think they started from 0. The earliest posted order I know of is Zefir's @ #9725.

Thats 452 orders of 10k sets of chips.  That's 4,520,000 Avalon chips ordered.

1274.64 Terahash/second.  

Difficulty of god knows

That can't possibly be right.

When did Avalon start selling their chips?

[mrb]

I purchased order #10177. I don't think they started from 0. The earliest posted order I know of is Zefir's @ #9725.

Thats 452 orders of 10k sets of chips.  That's 4,520,000 Avalon chips ordered.
1274.64 Terahash/second.  
Difficulty of god knows
That can't possibly be right.

That is not right. A lot of order numbers are just people clicking "buy" without paying.
https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU shows 66 batches bought so far. That's all.

[Minor Miner]

The chips will arrive before batch III it would seem.    If they can make 20 avalons at day and start in 2 weeks from now, that means batch II won't complete until 3rd week of june putting batch III at shipping complete end of july.   When is everyone supposed to get their chips?

[ecliptic]

The chips will arrive before batch III it would seem.    If they can make 20 avalons at day and start in 2 weeks from now, that means batch II won't complete until 3rd week of june putting batch III at shipping complete end of july.   When is everyone supposed to get their chips?

in my opinion?: the chips are going to be delayed too, and probably delayed more.

I purchased order #10177. I don't think they started from 0. The earliest posted order I know of is Zefir's @ #9725.

Thats 452 orders of 10k sets of chips.  That's 4,520,000 Avalon chips ordered.
1274.64 Terahash/second.  
Difficulty of god knows
That can't possibly be right.

That is not right. A lot of order numbers are just people clicking "buy" without paying.
https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU shows 66 batches bought so far. That's all.

i see, that makes more sense.  based on the BTC going to that address, we will see, assuming NO MORE orders (unlikely), 186.38 Thash/sec come online (network is currently ~75 THash/sec)


I suppose Avalon has never said anything about how long they will keep taking orders and shit have they?

[jspielberg]

I seem to recall them saying (in a newsletter?) they would be selling chips until the end of the year.

[Operatr]

The market already seems extremely saturated already, I think future miners are in for a shock. This is becoming serious business with relatively unknown ROI. The only hope is BTCs price increases dramatically, which may be a function of now very expensive equipment. By the time everyone gets theirs the ROI be the same or less than today's rigs....though if BTC is worth $2k a coin someday even mining a little slice would still give a nice return even if you had to drop $1500 on a miner to do it. We will see what happens now

[brucemangy]

don't think 100% of the chips are going to be soldered to a working PCB with everything required for them to run ...
I say 60% MAX if we DO have skilled people. But there IS going to be some failure.

[jspielberg]

Sorry to necro this thread, but I though I would ask what folks are thinking.

Currently the amount of BTC at:
http://blockexplorer.com/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

Is around 75 Batches of 10,000 chips (~210TH) - with the first order starting on 4/16/2013 and the most recent 5/26/2013 (date of posting).

I assume TSMC doesn't accept BTC, so as some point this 50K+ BTC will need to be fiat converted, and I would assume that the better part of 1/2 the total will need to be used... lets say 25000.

1) Do you think the 9-10 weeks 'til delivery start with the movement of that BTC?
2) Do you think a dark pool will be utilized for this fiat transaction?

25K+ BTC is close to the full daily volume, and if people don't see it coming, it could provide some jitters.

What sayeth the 'net?

[MrTeal]

Sorry to necro this thread, but I though I would ask what folks are thinking.

Currently the amount of BTC at:
http://blockexplorer.com/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

Is around 75 Batches of 10,000 chips (~210TH) - with the first order starting on 4/16/2013 and the most recent 5/26/2013 (date of posting).

I assume TSMC doesn't accept BTC, so as some point this 50K+ BTC will need to be fiat converted, and I would assume that the better part of 1/2 the total will need to be used... lets say 25000.

1) Do you think the 9-10 weeks 'til delivery start with the movement of that BTC?
2) Do you think a dark pool will be utilized for this fiat transaction?

25K+ BTC is close to the full daily volume, and if people don't see it coming, it could provide some jitters.

What sayeth the 'net?

I doubt it's anywhere near 1/2 of the money needed to be paid to TSMC. One order of 10k chips is probably around 3 wafers, so you're probably looking at ~225 wafers. Someone posted US$4k before for the Avalon wafers, though that seems a little high for a processed 110nm wafer. Even then, that's less than $1M, or 7500BTC at current prices.

[hl5460]

I don't think businessman will send stuff at the price that they buy in.
And for the record, 75 batches have been sold, which will contribute 225TH in the future if everything goes right.

[ashaw596]

Ok. that makes me feel a lot better. I bought some of those asic chips in the group buys and I was calculating with 300 batches bought (10 times difficulty increase with only avalon chips) I would probably never make it back. I can probably break even if the difficulty increases less than 5 times the current amount and all the boards I get aren't broken. (With my luck, I'm sure BFL will suddenly catch up on their shipping estimates and the klondike design will be shown to have a tendency to explode after being used for more than 10 minutes. Oh well)

BTW:
My calculations.
75 orders x .282 Gh/s per chip x 10,000 chips per order= 211.500 Terahashes / s
Current Hash rate = 75 Terahashes / s

That means difficulty will be about 4 times higher so 40 million difficulty just from Avalons.

(NVM, with bfl and avalon batch 2 and 3 shipments I'm still screwed. Oh well. There are my calculations for you anyways)

My estimate:
Whenever avalon ships. Difficulty >= 40,000,000 

[dwdoc]

You were right.  Difficulty above 40,000,000 today.