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环球时报:杜特尔特的南海政策“突然变了”吗?
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Topic: 环球时报:杜特尔特的南海政策“突然变了”吗? (Read 159 times)
hdd3go
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环球时报:杜特尔特的南海政策“突然变了”吗?
April 07, 2017, 12:35:56 PM
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菲律宾总统杜特尔特6日要求菲武装部队占领所有“属于菲律宾的南海岛礁”,并表示他将6月12日(菲律宾独立日)登中业岛,升菲律宾国旗。他说,菲律宾军队必须在“属于菲律宾的9到10个南海岛礁”建设地堡、住宅等设施,还应当用一艘配有游泳池和服务员的豪华巨轮替换1999年搁浅在仁爱礁、已经破旧不堪的登陆舰。
这是杜特尔特就任菲总统以来关于南海的最强硬言论,在此之前淡化与中国的领土争议、强调中菲友好合作是其南海政策的突出倾向。6日在菲律宾和西方媒体上都有人提出疑问:杜特尔特的南海政策变了吗?
杜特尔特是平时说话比较随意、也比较多的国家领导人,在不同的场合下,他的谈话会有不同的侧重点。比如在表达上述强硬态度之前,他曾嘲弄要他对抗中国的一名议员说:“如果阿勒哈诺(议员的名字)想跟中国打仗,他可以带头。”
人们注意到,杜特尔特6日的强硬表态中没有直接点中国的名字,也没有提中菲争议的焦点黄岩岛。另外,一般认为菲实际控制着南海的8个岛礁,但菲常常说他们控制的是9个,菲防长洛伦扎纳6日补充说,菲在9个南海岛礁上已经都部署了海军。
总的来看,杜特尔特6日谈话的口气很重,这有可能是他在回应菲国内强硬派、尤其是军方的情绪。他6日的谈话地点就是在一个军营中发表的。但从内容上看,其所谈措施与中国可能发生直接摩擦的点并不多。
中业岛上早就有飞机跑道,目前在己方控制的岛礁上搞建设,这已不构成实际禁忌。杜特尔特所预告的行动中,与中方最可能直接摩擦的是用新船替换仁爱礁的旧船。菲如果那样做,中方料将阻拦。另外,杜特尔特如果真去中业岛升旗,中国也必将反对。
围绕南海问题,菲国内有不同的力量在拔河,杜特尔特的言行很难长期保持一贯性。但是他的“南海政策”自上任以来基本保持了一致,未来是否会发生大的变化,要从以下几个方面进行判断:
第一,他是否会改变对所谓南海仲裁结果的态度。迄今为止他大体搁置了仲裁结果,促成了那一仲裁的降温,使得外界很难再拿该仲裁挑事,向中国施加政治和军事压力。
第二,他是否会重新与美国的南海政策积极互动,使菲律宾再次成为美在南海兴风作浪的“托”,与美日组成挤压中国战略利益的“统一战线”。
第三,他是否会推动菲与外国石油公司合作,在九段线内菲控制的岛礁附近搞联合油气开发,导致发生危机。
第四,他是否会改变菲律宾政府考量国家利益的顺序,将南海问题的争执放到用中菲友好合作来推动国家经济社会发展的前面。
杜特尔特6日的表态显然远不足以对应上述4个条件,因此不能说杜的南海政策“变了”。但是杜特尔特这次谈论南海的调子显然与以往不一样。从过去他的谈话风格看,这是他临时性表态的可能性还是蛮大的,尤其是中菲这段时间的合作一直挺顺利,没出现什么大的波折。
然而菲国内的政治形势非常复杂,杜特尔特的对华温和路线面临多重压力,他今后怎么谈南海,值得观察。他是否真会去中业岛升国旗,菲海军会不会真的试图派新船去换搁浅在仁爱礁的那条旧船,尤其是重要动向。如果它们真的出现,相信中方必将有所反应。
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