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邓海清:外储连续两月回升 今年人民币汇率大概率“逆袭”
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Topic: 邓海清:外储连续两月回升 今年人民币汇率大概率“逆袭” (Read 207 times)
Jennifeoe
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邓海清:外储连续两月回升 今年人民币汇率大概率“逆袭”
April 08, 2017, 05:21:42 AM
#1
4月7日,央行公布3月外汇储备数据,进一步回升维持3万亿上方,确认外汇储备下滑趋势大概率已经“掉头”。中国3月外汇储备30090亿美元,前值30051.24亿美元。点评如下:
1、外汇储备连续两月回升,进一步确认央行“维稳人民币汇率”的操作终止,3月人民币汇率基本上由市场决定。此前,央行为调节人民币汇率波动,在外汇市场上不断进行“买人民币、卖美元”的操作,数据上即表现为外汇储备的不断下滑。但2月、3月外汇储备数据的回升,表明央行不再通过在外汇市场进行净干预的方式,来维稳人民币汇率走势,2月、3月的外汇市场走势基本上取决于市场自发的供需。
2、在没有央行维稳人民币汇率的情况下,3月人民币汇率呈现震荡走势,表明人民币贬值压力大概率已经释放完成。之前,我们在2月外汇储备数据点评中指出,在央行没有维稳人民币的情况下,人民币兑美元同时走稳,反映出人民币贬值压力可能已经释放完毕,但仅凭单月数据无法判断数据,需要3月、4月数据进行确认。此次,3月外汇储备再次回升,且人民币汇率走势平稳,进一步验证了我们的观点,人民币汇率贬值压力可能已经释放完成,2017年人民币汇率将“逆袭”。
3、对于3月外汇储备上升,可能的解释在于人民币贬值预期“扭转”,已经取得了市场的认可,企业结售汇意愿提升以及资本外流改善。具体来看,一方面,贬值预期的“扭转”使得企业的结售汇意愿逆转,对人民币的需求提升,缓解了该部分因素带来的外汇储备下降;另一方面,贬值预期的“扭转”也使得资本外流的情况得到大幅好转,从而缓解了外汇储备减少的压力。
4、我们认为,2017年人民币汇率大概率逆袭,2014年以来的人民币贬值趋势大概率在2017年结束,主要理由是“中美四大背离消失”:(1)经济增长,中国经济企稳回升、中美经济方向不再背离,过去两年中国经济向下,美国经济向上;(2)货币政策,中国央行由“略偏宽松”到“中性”、中美货币政策方向不再背离,过去两年中国宽松,美国紧缩;(3)汇率政策,特朗普并不希望美元过度强势,而过去两年美元持续大幅升值;(4)资产价格泡沫,中国房地产调控、资产价格泡沫有可能得到控制。
5、2017年人民币汇率大概率逆袭,人民币贬值压力减少,央行因为汇率而大幅收紧的必要性下降,2017年央行货币政策将由去杠杆、防风险主导,货币市场利率仍然难以趋势性宽松。2017年以来,人民币兑美元持续3个月走稳、下降趋势不再,从而人民币贬值带来的外部压力得到大幅改善,央行的货币政策主要由去杠杆、防风险的政策目标主导,在去杠杆已经取得阶段性进展的情况下,货币市场利率仍然难以趋势性宽松。(作者邓海清系九州证券全球首席经济学家;陈曦系“海清FICC”大资管频道研究员。原题为《外储连续两月回升,2017年人民币汇率大概率“逆袭”》
banbangfa
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Re: 邓海清:外储连续两月回升 今年人民币汇率大概率“逆袭”
April 08, 2017, 10:53:52 AM
#2
个人兑换额度减到5万刀,不允许国外买房,各种控制钱外流,好意思说
BOS fans
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⇾
Re: 邓海清:外储连续两月回升 今年人民币汇率大概率“逆袭”
April 08, 2017, 11:12:33 AM
#3
比特币又不准提现有屁用
cartmann
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Re: 邓海清:外储连续两月回升 今年人民币汇率大概率“逆袭”
April 08, 2017, 11:13:48 AM
#4
外汇储备那么看重干啥
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