Snapchat first investor thinks bitcoin could realistically be worth $500,000

[Dorky]

You don't seem to understand the issue properly. With a constrained blocksize if the transactions that fill up that block are all $100 million transactions then they can pay very easily a $10,000 fee to keep your transactions off the blockchain. If BTC is worth $100,000 at that point and you have 10 BTC, you are not going to want to spend that many times at $10,000 per spend.

I don't understand that part of yours.

If they are transacting $100 million per block and bitcoin is at $100,000, then 1000 units of bitcoin will be involved each time.
For the whales to show their hands transacting 1000 units of bitcoin each time would be a huge giveaway to the public on how loop-sided is the blockchain.
How can they keep my transaction off the blockchain with them paying $10,000 fee? I will still get confirmation albeit maybe after an hour's wait. I don't mind the wait if my purchase is big, like buying a car or a house, instead of buying a cup of coffee.

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[Raize]

I'm not sure if this Snapchat investor is doing some type of cycle analysis or not. But we are doing that over in hacknoid's thread about it. I have two models right now, but as far as the time element involved, they predict the current supercycle will end in 2019 (model 2) or 2020 (model 1). It'd be harder to gauge the next supercycle, but I wouldn't suspect it would start till mid-way through the 20s and would likely peak around 2032, meaning $500k/coin by 2030 might be considerably ambitious of a guesstimate.

[webtricks]

Being Bitcoiner as well as optimist, I am too in motion that Bitcoin will jump high maybe $500k in coming years! Maybe not as he described but it is all possible!
Simple theory works here. Bitcoin prices increase with increase in demand. Demand when compared to previous years, increasing every next year. With more demand, more funds will be converted or kept in Bitcoin web. As a result of which its market cap is increasing day by day.

[iamnotback]

You don't seem to understand the issue properly. With a constrained blocksize if the transactions that fill up that block are all $100 million transactions then they can pay very easily a $10,000 fee to keep your transactions off the blockchain. If BTC is worth $100,000 at that point and you have 10 BTC, you are not going to want to spend that many times at $10,000 per spend.

I don't understand that part of yours.

If they are transacting $100 million per block and bitcoin is at $100,000, then 1000 units of bitcoin will be involved each time.
For the whales to show their hands transacting 1000 units of bitcoin each time would be a huge giveaway to the public on how loop-sided is the blockchain.
How can they keep my transaction off the blockchain with them paying $10,000 fee? I will still get confirmation albeit maybe after an hour's wait. I don't mind the wait if my purchase is big, like buying a car or a house, instead of buying a cup of coffee.

I did not write $100m per block. Rather I said per transaction. The block might contain say $10 billion or what ever.

They can fill up every 1 MB block, so your transaction never gets on any block ever.

You don't have to worry about this now. It will be process of increasing fees over the years.

[iamnotback]

Also BTC will not be used by billionaires only, that's stupid, people will demand changes so bitcoin cannot be used only by a handful of people on earth. If it takes UASF then UASF will happen so segwit + LN can happen and everyone can use bitcoin, additional blocksize increases will come too. Nobody will support the "billionares only blockchain", that's stupid.

Sorry you can't do anything to stop it:

...such nonsense as UASF.

Cry and scream all you want. You are wasting your time fighting what is inevitable.

Soon you will realize this. Go ahead and try. My popcorn is laughing.

It's as easy as UASF + PoW change with a new solution such as randomly changing algorithm to avoid efficient ASIC stacking.

"BillionaireChain" used by 2,000 people on earth will be seen as a joke by the rest of the population and it will no longer be Bitcoin. Progress will move on.

None of your democracy shenanigans will prosper. But feel free to lose all your wealth trying.

The opinion of the masses does not matter, if we presume that fungible money will remain supreme in the economy.

I have one alternative to offer which is the theory that the economy will bifurcate into fungible money driven tangible economy and a knowledge age economy in Inverse Commons. The latter is what my BitNet project is about. If I am correct, then that will be our only alternative.

But don't believe me. Please go waste your time and lose all your wealth. The smart money is starting to recognize my expertise. Please do your own due diligence.

[Dorky]

I did not write $100m per block. Rather I said per transaction. The block might contain say $10 billion or what ever.

They can fill up every 1 MB block, so your transaction never gets on any block ever.

You don't have to worry about this now. It will be process of increasing fees over the years.

Well, I rarely do any transaction so I have not much knowledge how this works in detail.
In case I do make a transaction when fee is at $10,000, won't I still get confirmation even if I choose to pay zero fee?

[iamnotback]

I did not write $100m per block. Rather I said per transaction. The block might contain say $10 billion or what ever.

They can fill up every 1 MB block, so your transaction never gets on any block ever.

You don't have to worry about this now. It will be process of increasing fees over the years.

Well, I rarely do any transaction so I have not much knowledge how this works in detail.
In case I do make a transaction when fee is at $10,000, won't I still get confirmation even if I choose to pay zero fee?

You'll sell before the fee gets too high. So don't worry about it. I know your interest in BTC is only for the price rise.

[Dorky]

And assuming I can't get my transaction into the block due to $10,000 fee, I would need to dump my bitcoin for the alts.
And I won't be the only one doing that.
A lot will dump their bitcoins for the alts.
And those buying from us selling our bitcoins will also know that unless they are the power brokers, they will also face the same issue we are facing (i.e. transaction not confirmed).
Thus if the ones buying from us are just like us, then the price of bitcoin vs alts will fall to compensate for the risk, which I don't think serves the interest of the power brokers.
To solve that, the power brokers need to be the ones buying.

[Dorky]

You'll sell before the fee gets too high. So don't worry about it. I know your interest in BTC is only for the price rise.

Let's say I won't be selling most of it, but only a little, will I still get confirmation even with zero fee, as long as I am willing to wait for hours?

[mr.mister]

And assuming I can't get my transaction into the block due to $10,000 fee, I would need to dump my bitcoin for the alts.
And I won't be the only one doing that.
A lot will dump their bitcoins for the alts.
And those buying from us selling our bitcoins will also know that unless they are the power brokers, they will also face the same issue we are facing (i.e. transaction not confirmed).
Thus if the ones buying from us are just like us, then the price of bitcoin vs alts will fall to compensate for the risk, which I don't think serves the interest of the power brokers.
To solve that, the power brokers need to be the ones buying.

$10,000 fee? Now that's nonsense.

[Dorky]

$10,000 fee? Now that's nonsense.

wat did ya sayyyyy....?

[iamnotback]

You'll sell before the fee gets too high. So don't worry about it. I know your interest in BTC is only for the price rise.

Let's say I won't be selling most of it, but only a little, will I still get confirmation even with zero fee, as long as I am willing to wait for hours?

No you will never get a confirmation if you don't pay the prevailing fee when blocks become totally constrained. Fees will rise over the years, so you'll know when you need to sell.

@mr.mister is on my Ignore list because he is an idiot troll.

[Dorky]

No you will never get a confirmation if you don't pay the prevailing fee when blocks become totally constrained. Fees will rise over the years, so you'll know when you need to sell.

We will see about that.
I would not be surprised if that will be the outcome as I don't believe the rothschilds (bunch of assholes) are doing us a favor with their cryptos.

It feels shit to have to transit to alts, but I believe someday even if that outcome never materialize (high fee) I will still quit this crypto stuff, because I sincerely believe bitcoin is the mark of the beast (just my personal belief) and I do not favor the money god at the expense of my real God.

[Pab]

At 2030 USD will be no more global currency and btc who knows whatwill happen with btc,before Mt Gox crash i ve been reading 1btc 1 mln usd,but if Russia will legelalise btc next year price will be above 2k usd

[cr1776]

So about a 400 x rise  (400 * $1220) in 14 years.  Bitcoin has done much more than that in the last 8 years.  Even in the last 5-6 years it has grown more than that.  So while it is purely speculation, it is entirely possible for it to happen.

Likely to happen, who knows, possible, for sure.

[LoyceV]

I'm however not sure about the part where he said "Bitcoin's user network grew from 120,000 users in 2013 to 6.5 million users in 2017" as there is no way to calculate the userbase of bitcoin. Despite all that, what are your thoughts?

Let's assume this is true, and see what that means: The last 4 Blocks processed 1603 + 1935 + 1047 + 1799 transactions. I'll take this as average: 1596 transactions every 10 minutes. That gives 229,824 transactions per day.
Now let's assume the best-case scenario, in which transactions are evenly spread out between users. That means these 6.5 million users each make 1 transaction in 28 days.
This is of course not realistic: active users make much more transactions, which means the large majority of less-active users take manu months between transactions. The assumption of 61 times more users by 2030 would lead to 1 transaction per user in 5 years at current block size.

Is it realistic to call Person X a Bitcoin user, if he made 1 transaction in 2016? I don't think so. I traveled by train once in 2016, that doesn't make me a train user.
The 50-fold increase in users shows the scaling problem again: prices can't grow as long as users can't make more transactions.

Now back to the catchy topic title: if this is his expectation, did he invest most of his wealth in Bitcoin? The article doesn't mention anything about his own personal holdings.

[Dorky]

If you want to see an astronomical increase in bitcoin adoption, globally, among the merchants, then you need a "bank" that can readily accept any amount of bitcoins for fiat.

This will allay the fear of bitcoin price volatility entirely.

[bryant.coleman]

An exchange rate of $500,000 per coin seems quite unreasonable (that would mean a market cap of close to $10 trillion, which is 5 times the current market capitalization of the United States Dollar banknotes/coins). But he is not talking about the immediate future. He is talking about 2030, and we can't predict what will happen by then.

[monsanto]

An exchange rate of $500,000 per coin seems quite unreasonable (that would mean a market cap of close to $10 trillion, which is 5 times the current market capitalization of the United States Dollar banknotes/coins). But he is not talking about the immediate future. He is talking about 2030, and we can't predict what will happen by then.

It's possible, but only if the dollar becomes basically worthless. I don't see btc becoming worth $500,000 with anything near current dollar buying value. Unless you are willing to entertain ideas like $100,000 litecoins. You think there are a lot of alt coins now, if that ever happened all of humanity would die in the ensuing tsunami of shit coins that would follow such a rise. The fact that the snapchat guy thinks this could happen is somewhat comforting though, as it shows very successful investors can be just as insane as anyone else.

[BillyBobZorton]

You'll sell before the fee gets too high. So don't worry about it. I know your interest in BTC is only for the price rise.

Let's say I won't be selling most of it, but only a little, will I still get confirmation even with zero fee, as long as I am willing to wait for hours?

No you will never get a confirmation if you don't pay the prevailing fee when blocks become totally constrained. Fees will rise over the years, so you'll know when you need to sell.

@mr.mister is on my Ignore list because he is an idiot troll.

You are saying bitcoin can reach $500,000, as the snapchat investor said, that's 12 years from now according to his prediction.

So you are saying that in 12 years fees still will not be high enough to sell?

Who is the idiot that is going to sell before $500,000 regardless how prohibitive fees are?