MtGox, the value of BTC, daytraders

[Mouser]

Put a start point at about $2 two years ago. Put a second point on today's date at about $139.

Draw a simple line beginning at two years ago, including today's point, and extending several years into the future. Though only linear and an approximation, that rough line indicates the gradual incremental growth of BTC wrt USD now and in the near future. Up to 266 or down to 50.25 and everything in between is the result of day traders needing rises and falls to inspire trades where they can earn money.

The demand for BTC is still 50 times the supply. IMO that is one of the fundamental reasons BTC is appreciating along with a gradual increase of companies accepting BTC as payment.

In several years one BTC will be worth over 2,000 USD  using gradual incremental increase. That doesn't deny the possibility of spikes to 4,000 USD per coin in bubble(s).

[ElectricMucus]

Might well be.

Problem is: People riding the hype don't want it to end and they want all that, during this year.

[Mouser]

Then they better try to open the box and really look at Schrödinger's cat.

[fortif78]

Then they better try to open the box and really look at Schrödinger's cat.

+1 sweet reference

[ManBearPig]

Nice to see some sense being spoken and a bullish attitude with something to back it up

I've been going on (and on) about the trend set in the first part of this year as being the true reference line: 1.8% daily growth.

I think taking it back to the underground days is flawed in that, only this year are we seeing anything like the real value. But if you see here (the last chart I made showing the entire Mt Gox history), you can see that trend albeit in a looser fashion, actually began in Feb 2012:



It is by far the longest vague trendline since July 2010. People, whether consciously or otherwise are looking at that line as a long-term reference.

If you are feeling super-bullish, you can extrapolate the trend from $47.40 on 17th March 2013 @ 1.8% daily growth and see that the line passes through $1,000 in about 6 months. What with the volatile nature of BTC, we could see that price in half the time if only temporarily.

I'm sure a lot of people have a price target in their head and $1,000 is a nice, round figure

[Mouser]

Nice to see some sense being spoken and a bullish attitude with something to back it up

I've been going on (and on) about the trend set in the first part of this year as being the true reference line: 1.8% daily growth.

I think taking it back to the underground days is flawed in that, only this year are we seeing anything like the real value. But if you see here (the last chart I made showing the entire Mt Gox history), you can see that trend albeit in a looser fashion, actually began in Feb 2012:

http://tonycoleby.com/shared/2013-04-11_bitcoin_growth.png

It is by far the longest vague trendline since July 2010. People, whether consciously or otherwise are looking at that line as a long-term reference.

If you are feeling super-bullish, you can extrapolate the trend from $47.40 on 17th March 2013 @ 1.8% daily growth and see that the line passes through $1,000 in about 6 months. What with the volatile nature of BTC, we could see that price in half the time if only temporarily.

I'm sure a lot of people have a price target in their head and $1,000 is a nice, round figure

ManBearPig,

A 1.8% per day increase seems about right.

In your graph, which is logarithmic, the gradual 30-40 degree ascending dotted line in the middle on the right parallels my understanding of BTC's future value increase. Your gradual line is ca 75 USD below my estimate, but both lines rise at about the same rate. 75 USD is not going to be so much difference when 1 BTC is over 1000 USD.