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Author Topic: 2013-04-24 TechCrunch "Obama’s Fmr. Chief Economic Advisor On Bitcoin’s Use"  (Read 2278 times)
kiba
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April 24, 2013, 09:29:03 PM
 #21

Does this count? (Timothy B. Lee, writing in Forbes)

"The first post I ever wrote about Bitcoin was in April 2011. At the time, the crytpocurrency had recently surpassed parity with the dollar. I declared it a bubble, predicting that it would never displace conventional currencies, and that therefore it could never achieve a stable value. Over the next two months, the value shot up to almost $32. Then it crashed, eventually hitting a low of $2 in late 2011.

No. Because Lee didn't said that the bitcoin price won't reach dollar parity. Instead, he said that bitcoin will spiral down to zero.

Gordonium
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April 24, 2013, 09:45:17 PM
 #22

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Still, people are investing their own money in Bitcoin. Question is, do you want to bet against 87 percent of top economists?

Yes I do.
Raoul Duke
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April 24, 2013, 10:08:42 PM
 #23

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* The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.

* As the rate of technological change in computing slows, the number of jobs for IT specialists will decelerate, then actually turn down; ten years from now, the phrase information economy will sound silly.

- Paul Krugman, 1998
http://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/www.redherring.com/mag/issue55/economics.html


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Kazu
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April 25, 2013, 01:11:18 AM
 #24

This is the stupidest thing I've read all day.

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proudhon
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April 25, 2013, 01:13:18 AM
 #25

Wow, these guys are going full retard. The usefulness of Bitcoin as a method of payment is hardly affected by it's price fluctuations, for the simple reason that merchants can easily get all their bitcoins converted to USD or EUR or whatever, through Bitpay. And with a .99% fee, this is still a lot cheaper than credit cards or paypal.
 
For consumers it doesn't matter either, because they can always buy more bitcoins once they've spent some.

I have to call BS on this one, sorry.

If I purchased BTC @ $166 this morning to make a transaction 5 seconds ago @ $146.....that transaction would cost 12% (12% more bitcoin, which is 12% more USD as the store of value has changed) plus the spread, which is usually 0.5% - 1% and must be taken into account in merchant pricing through BitPay. And don't forget BitPay's 1% fee....minimum 13.5% in fees.

No, foreign exchange risk (currency risk) is actually a very serious issue. Hedging for this type of risk was impetus for the futures/forex industry.

And I would hesitate to call a panel that contains Nobel Laureates 'full retard'.

Volatility is probably the best criticism of bitcoin.  I think these are among the important questions to ask related to the volatility criticism:

Is bitcoin a compelling enough idea for enough people that its adoption will continue to increase over time despite that it will likely be very volatile during this adoption phase?  And, once bitcoin has been adopted by a large enough population, will its value stabilize enough to make it a better currency?  I think these are open questions that can't be answered confidently one way or another, and that's why bitcoin is, in a sense, a huge social experiment.

Are there good reasons to think adoption will increase in spite of violent exchange rate swings, and are there good reasons to think that if adoption increases enough the exchange rate volatility will fall to acceptable levels such that bitcoin is a better currency?

Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
gogxmagog
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April 25, 2013, 01:23:20 AM
 #26

And HE did such flawless work on Obama's economic strategy! LMFAO
foggyb
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April 25, 2013, 01:26:37 AM
 #27

But proudhon!

How can we have volitility if we are at single digiks? The price needs to be at $150 so we don't hit bottom on the downswings.

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Manticore (OP)
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April 25, 2013, 01:56:23 AM
 #28


Volatility is probably the best criticism of bitcoin.  I think these are among the important questions to ask related to the volatility criticism:

Is bitcoin a compelling enough idea for enough people that its adoption will continue to increase over time despite that it will likely be very volatile during this adoption phase?  And, once bitcoin has been adopted by a large enough population, will its value stabilize enough to make it a better currency?  I think these are open questions that can't be answered confidently one way or another, and that's why bitcoin is, in a sense, a huge social experiment.

Are there good reasons to think adoption will increase in spite of violent exchange rate swings, and are there good reasons to think that if adoption increases enough the exchange rate volatility will fall to acceptable levels such that bitcoin is a better currency?

Yes. Yes. These are THE questions. The answers will lead to success/failure, but it will certainly be interesting in the meantime.
kjlimo
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April 25, 2013, 12:19:27 PM
 #29

Wow, these guys are going full retard. The usefulness of Bitcoin as a method of payment is hardly affected by it's price fluctuations, for the simple reason that merchants can easily get all their bitcoins converted to USD or EUR or whatever, through Bitpay. And with a .99% fee, this is still a lot cheaper than credit cards or paypal.
 
For consumers it doesn't matter either, because they can always buy more bitcoins once they've spent some.

Be sure you don't mislead people.  I believe 0.99% is the bitcoin fee.  If you want it converted to USD, the fee is north of 2% last I checked.  However, it's still more competitive than credit cards.

Just don't want to mislead people.  Go Bitpay!

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Roger_Murdock
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April 25, 2013, 12:20:13 PM
 #30

The best-rated comment is great:

Quote
In other news... 87% of the King's astrologers agree the earth is flat and at the center of the universe.
lonelyminer (Peter Šurda)
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April 25, 2013, 03:56:21 PM
 #31

Be sure you don't mislead people.  I believe 0.99% is the bitcoin fee.  If you want it converted to USD, the fee is north of 2% last I checked.  However, it's still more competitive than credit cards.

Just don't want to mislead people.  Go Bitpay!
Actually they did drop the price recently to 0.99% for a transaction including forex. Check it out: https://bitpay.com/pricing.

Yay go Bitpay!
No_2
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April 26, 2013, 09:41:03 AM
 #32

I would've been deeply concerned if survey results had been reversed.  These people have proven that they can't predict their way out of a wet paper bag.

As such, this almost unanimous negative opinion is excellent news.


+1
n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU
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April 26, 2013, 10:43:56 PM
 #33

The best-rated comment is great:

Quote
In other news... 87% of the King's astrologers agree the earth is flat and at the center of the universe.

Priceless.

The quality of reader rebuttals I've seen on many of these hit pieces these past months has pleasantly surprised me.  Quite a few very knowledgeable people who have taken the red pill, and many apparently not from these forums and new to Bitcoin.  There might still be hope for humanity.
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