Network dominance

[giarc]

Should I be worrying about how close btc guild are to the 50% mark in terms of network hash rate?

http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/

[awakening]

Is a pool, so no.. The biggest risk is they being ddosed as MtGox etc But I wouldn't say a 51% attack by them is possible.

[wobber]

I think natural growth is following bitcoin generation curve. Growth is less in the final years.

Same with plants, animals etc. It thing BTC Guild also experiences this... fast growth in the start then decresing.

[niko]

Should I be worrying about how close btc guild are to the 50% mark in terms of network hash rate?

http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/

You should first make sure you understand what you are looking at and quoting. How are the numbers calculated?
Then do the same with this: http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/chart.php
Next, understand what >50% with one pool would mean.
Overall, I'm not worried at all.

[arepo]

it seems like everyone is taking this for granted, but is a pool performing a 51% attack really impossible?

perhaps a quiet piece of infectious code turns it into a botnet? i'm guessing here, im not very networking-savvy.

what i'm asking is, it may not be reason to panic, but is it a vulnerability in any way at all?

[Rygon]

The operator of BTC Guild has publicly stated on several occasions that he will enact measures to lower their total network hashrate if it gets too close to 50%. Remember, there's some fluctuation to due to luck, so it's not unusual to see BTC Guild near 50% if they have had a lucky 24 hours.

[Bitco¡n]

The operator of BTC Guild has publicly stated on several occasions that he will enact measures to lower their total network hashrate if it gets too close to 50%.

I guess increasing fees would be an easy way of doing it.

[giarc]

it seems like everyone is taking this for granted, but is a pool performing a 51% attack really impossible?

perhaps a quiet piece of infectious code turns it into a botnet? i'm guessing here, im not very networking-savvy.

what i'm asking is, it may not be reason to panic, but is it a vulnerability in any way at all?

I think a major problem that bitcoin has is that it was made by cryptographers and most of the forums are full of programmers and cryptographers who have limited ability to explain in simple terms to the laymen the risks involved. Whilst this is the case bitcoin will always have the perception of a "toy" currency rather than a currency an outsider could purchase and have faith in.

I have a background in mathematics and some knowledge of programming (from physics work) but struggle with some of the way people on the forums and other sites try to explain to the layman the ideas of 51% attacks and other elements relating to the underlying workings of bitcoin.

I think things are starting to look better with the simpler sites describing how to buy and sell bitcoins, but there's a long way to go.

I don't mean to belittle the great programmers and cryptographers who work on bitcoin and its infrastructure, they make the whole system work. But more than  just infrastructure is needed.

[niko]

it seems like everyone is taking this for granted, but is a pool performing a 51% attack really impossible?

perhaps a quiet piece of infectious code turns it into a botnet? i'm guessing here, im not very networking-savvy.

what i'm asking is, it may not be reason to panic, but is it a vulnerability in any way at all?

Yes, the operator of the pool has control over what is done with the hashpower (what is included in the blocks they mine). Miners mining in  a pool have no say whatsoever - they simply contribute their hashing power into the hands of the pool operator.

Having said that, miners can easily switch to a different pool if they don't like this or that about the pool.

So, as I said above, there is really no problem.

[siggy]

it seems like everyone is taking this for granted, but is a pool performing a 51% attack really impossible?
<snip>

is it possible.. yes very.
is it plausible.. not really...

The concern here is that a pool operator will spend years building up his business and trust with the mining community, and then throw it all away for a one-time fraud.  Keep in mind that someone would most definately catch on to what he did.. and once that became public knowledge, not only would 99% of his miners leave him immediately.. a good portion of those who left would DDOS and hack what's left of his pool into oblivion, just for the betrayal.

To put some numbers behind this..  a 51% pool would be mining 1800+ coins per day.. figureing in the current $160 exchange rate and a 5% fee.. that means he's bringing in $14,400 per day  (minus infrastructure costs, lets call it an even $10k)

Would YOU throw away a $10,000 per day money machine to get in a double spend?   

The only way this would be worth it would be for a million dollar double spend...  Anyone who accepts a million dollar transaction without AT LEAST a dozen confirmations is an idiot ..   and coordinating a dozen block fork would be very difficult even with 51%.

In short... I won't panic even if I do see a pool hitting 51% consistantly.

Sigg