We are going to be devating the scaling issue until we are old

[BillyBobZorton]

We will be 60 years old and we will still be debating how to scale bitcoin. Franky1 and jonald will still be saying how segwit is bad, and kwukduck will still be FUDding on the price and shilling whatever alternative is being proposed (BUcoin, Classicoin, othercoin)

Meanwhile BTC price will continue going up and so will the fees. BTC will continue working.

I just hope the fee never becomes so high that people can't even move 1 BTC!!! that would be stupid.

But as long as the price goes up the fees will go up too.

The question, when does bitcoin become useless for us? when do we dump because the fee will become higher than our holdings?

I think when you can't even move 1 BTC per coin because the fee is higher than 1 BTC, the price must be super high or it will collapse.

[1714771929]

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[1714771929]

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[1714771929]

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[Iranus]

But as long as the price goes up the fees will go up too.

The price going up won't result in the fees going up.  The only thing that'll result in fees going up is an increased transaction volume and total size of transactions being added to the blockchain.  If the price goes up, mining revenues will rise because the number of Bitcoin they get as a block reward is set - if the block reward is still 12.5 and the price doubles, the revenues will double, meaning that miners no longer need to receive as much of their revenue in transaction fees.

Bitcoin's fees won't actually get that bad because the transaction volume will decrease as investors store larger amounts of money in it because of the bad fees, making Bitcoin accessible to less people (thus decreasing the transaction volume, but potentially keeping the price the same or even raising it).  So if Bitcoin isn't scaled, there will be a middle ground in which transaction fees are high but not unbearable.

[jamescameron2312]

i was confused by iamnotback posts

he says that bitcoin will go to half million dollars in 2030 and only billionaire people can use it

not even people holding 21 will be able to move their btc anymore because btc fee will be too high even for holders of 21 btc (millionaire club)

how stupid is that

[unamis76]

We will always debate about scaling (a permanent solution to this issue seems highly unlikely), but your post makes it look like SegWit/Block size increase will still be a issue when you're 60... So I take it you're 59?

BTC will not go up in price if it is unusable (by being unusable I mean have ridiculous fees), but while we have scaling issues so urgent like we have right now, price will be the least of our worries

[BillyBobZorton]

We will always debate about scaling (a permanent solution to this issue seems highly unlikely), but your post makes it look like SegWit/Block size increase will still be a issue when you're 60... So I take it you're 59?

BTC will not go up in price if it is unusable (by being unusable I mean have ridiculous fees), but while we have scaling issues so urgent like we have right now, price will be the least of our worries

Well, some people claim BTC will become a tool for billionaires only ($ billionares). Read that other thread. I think it's a ridiculous claim, because it's such a small amount of people, the rest aren't going to sit back and watch themselves kicked out and their wealth rendered useless because the fees are so big that it requires millions of dollars of fees per transaction.
I can see $100 per transaction at a very high BTC price as a sort of gold replacement, more than that and it starts becoming absurd. Something will happen before we reach such point.

[rizzlarolla]

The question, when does bitcoin become useless for us? when do we dump because the fee will become higher than our holdings?
I think when you can't even move 1 BTC per coin because the fee is higher than 1 BTC, the price must be super high or it will collapse.

But you're one of the core shills who wants these high fees - yet is still planning their dump?
This post just shows the stupidity of the core roadmap, and complete lack of understanding by many vocal accounts here.

[franky1]

Meanwhile BTC price will continue going up and so will the fees. BTC will continue working.

I just hope the fee never becomes so high that people can't even move 1 BTC!!! that would be stupid.

But as long as the price goes up the fees will go up too.

The question, when does bitcoin become useless for us? when do we dump because the fee will become higher than our holdings?

I think when you can't even move 1 BTC per coin because the fee is higher than 1 BTC, the price must be super high or it will collapse.

ignoring the first sentance (im didnt include in ur quote) you have a very level headed question

my opinion
we are already at and passed the utility point.

if your basing it on moving 1btc... the answer is naturally when it becomes costly to the point of over 1% (so 0.01btc fee) to move it people will lose preferential desire to hold bitcoin.

of course bitcoin fee's dont work as % and most people are not moving funds in 1btc amounts. usually in real life of going to an ATM and banking its $10-$100amounts on average 'spend'. that people withdraw/handle/carry around/spend.
so based on a 0.01-0.1 spend amount .. 0.0001-0.001fee

in developing countries its $0.10-$10(0.0001- 0.01) amounts so (0.000001-0.0001fee)

i have been to a few countries trying to drum up bitcoin support and the main objections is the fee.. $0.60 is about 12 hours labour in some countries so when you tell them they need to work 12 hours just to move funds.. yep you guessed it they are not interested.

bitcoin has become too american economist minded (only for the rich wall streeters) and has been shaped by those refusing to allow onchain growth to keep pushing fake narratives of 'but pools need higher fee's tonight' propaganda. which has made it unattainable to the unbanked/developing countries (unless your a rich nigerian prince/oil baron)

though onchain transactions should not be a world history report of every doughnut bought. it should not cost hours of labour to use it either.

im sure if LN had a $0.0001 LN channel fee and an onchain $0.01 people who spend often will naturally volunteer to use LN. and then we can code a better fee priority mechanism to slowdown/stop spammers onchain from spending every 10 minutes by using CODE not economics.
EG coinage under 144 confirms. fee is higher

[FlamingFingers]

Meanwhile BTC price will continue going up and so will the fees. BTC will continue working.

I just hope the fee never becomes so high that people can't even move 1 BTC!!! that would be stupid.

But as long as the price goes up the fees will go up too.

The question, when does bitcoin become useless for us? when do we dump because the fee will become higher than our holdings?

I think when you can't even move 1 BTC per coin because the fee is higher than 1 BTC, the price must be super high or it will collapse.

ignoring the first sentance (im didnt include in ur quote) you have a very level headed question

my opinion
we are already at and passed the utility point.

if your basing it on moving 1btc... the answer is naturally when it becomes costly to the point of over 1% (so 0.01btc fee) to move it people will lose preferential desire to hold bitcoin.

of course bitcoin fee's dont work as % and most people are not moving funds in 1btc amounts. usually in real life of going to an ATM and banking its $10 amounts-$100 on average 'spend'. that people withdraw/handle/carry around/spend.
so based on a 0.01-0.1 spend amount .. 0.0001-0.001fee

i have been to a few countries trying to drum up bitcoin support and the main objections is the fee.. $0.60 is about 12 hours labour in some countries so when you tell them they need to work 12 hours just to move funds.. yep you guessed you they are not interested.

bitcoin has become too american economist minded (only for the rich wall streeters) and has been shaped by those refusing to allow onchain growth to keep pushing fake naratives of 'but pools need higher fee's tonight' propaganda. which has make it unattainable to the unbanked/developing countries (unless your a rich nigerian prince/ oil baron)

though onchain transactions should not be a world history report of every doughnt bought. it should not cost hours of labour to use it either.

im sure if LN had a $0.0001 LN channel fee and an onchain $0.01 people who spend often will naturally volunteer to use LN. and then we can code a better fee priority mechanism so slowdown/stop spammers onchain.

I am impressed. This is the best, most reasonable post I have ever seen from you, franky. I am not SegWit or BU supporter, myself, but this post explains much.

High fees are a real problem – every time I talk to people about bitcoin, who are not aware of it, I try to avoid this fees thing because it surely keeps them away. 

[franky1]

as for the fee/spam thing

here is one example - not perfect. but think about it
imagine that we decided its acceptable that people should have a way to get priority if they have a lean tx and signal that they only want to spend funds once a day. (reasonable expectation)
where if they want to spend more often costs rise, if they want bloated tx, costs rise..

which then allows those that just pay their rent once a month or buys groceries every couple days to be ok using onchain bitcoin.. and where the costs of trying to spam the network (every block) becomes expensive where by they would be better off using LN. (for things like faucet raiding/day trading every 1-10 minutes)

so lets think about a priority fee thats not about rich vs poor(like the old one was) but about reducing respend spam and bloat.

lets imagine we actually use the tx age combined with CLTV to signal the network that a user is willing to add some maturity time if their tx age is under a day, to signal they want it confirmed but allowing themselves to be locked out of spending for an average of 24 hours.(thats what CLTV does)

and where the bloat of the tx vs the blocksize has some impact too... rather than the old formulae with was more about the value of the tx


as you can see its not about tx value. its about bloat and age.
this way
those not wanting to spend more than once a day and dont bloat the blocks get preferential treatment onchain ($0.01).
if you are willing to wait a day but your taking up 1% of the blockspace. you pay more ($0.44)
if you want to be a spammer spending every block. you pay the price($1.44)
and if you want to be a total ass-hat and be both bloated and respending EVERY BLOCK you pay the ultimate price($63.72)

note this is not perfect. but think about it

[amacar2]

The question, when does bitcoin become useless for us? when do we dump because the fee will become higher than our holdings?

I think when you can't even move 1 BTC per coin because the fee is higher than 1 BTC, the price must be super high or it will collapse.

I will start to think bitcoin as useless coin only When bitcoin will loss all its miners and there will be not much active nodes for bitcoin. I don't think this gonna happen in near future.

If you receive lots of small amount of bitcoin in several transactions, yes fees can be more than your holding in future. I have also seen few transactions where fees and amount in transactions almost same several times.

[iamnotback]

So let me get this straight.

Even people holding millions of dollars worth of bitcoin, will see their bitcoins trapped because transaction fees will be worth millions of dollars? What fees are we talking about by 2030? (at supposedly around $500k price)

Well we can estimate given that BTC trades 1/100th of its market cap daily. So @ $500k per BTC thus a $10 trillion market cap, thus $100 billion transacted daily. Given 144 blocks per day, that is $600 million per block.

Let's assume that whales will put complex settlement transactions on the blockchain with many inputs and outputs so perhaps only 100 transactions per block. Presuming that whales are willing to pay 0.1% fee for security (i.e. $600,000 per block), that means a minimum transaction fee of $6000. If whales are willing to pay more for security, say 1%, then minimum transaction fee of $60,000.

However, I think whales will end up demanding a kickback from miners for their transaction fees, so that miners can jack up fees on non-whales. Whales can make this demand because they can refuse to send their transactions to miners which won't deal. Yet non-whales can't make a credible threat, because miners who generally offered lower fees would end up losing hashrate relative to those miners who didn't defect from the fee market. Thus I think you will probably see miners colluding to extract the maximum fees that gouge non-whales.

So perhaps 10% fees so $600,000 per transaction. You'll pay it because you have no choice, whereas the whales will have exempted themselves from the fee. So in other words, we will be paying the fees for the whales, eventually the millionaires paying exorbitant fees in order to transact unregulated.

You'll of course be able to avoid that exorbitant fees by going through a regulated option as I explained previously.

So the bottom line is the whales will be free from regulation and we will not. We remain slaves.

And how do we know when we start losing money (aka when is the time to dump?)

Monitor the fees paid in blocks. It will gradually rise over the coming years.

You say now is too early because the price will go higher and the fees will still be affordable.

How does one calculate when you start losing money in relation to the amount of BTC you are holding, the price, and the fees so you know the ideal time to dump?

It is a function of the supply and demand for BTC. As the demand for transactions outstrips supply of block size space, the transaction fees will rise accordingly. You can project if you can project BTC transaction demand.

You paint a scary picture where there is an Illuminati elite of BTC holders.

Well they exist. MP is one of them. You can speak to him on his IRC channel. Ask him if you want. Be sincere and maybe he won't be too hard on you.

Better to ask directly while you still can access him. I provided the link to his IRC in my prior post.

Please notify us after you did.

I am just a hard working poor guy hustling for BTCs, made a decent portfolio (not even yet 21 BTC group) and you are saying these guys will make my wealth useless because the fee will be so high by 2030 that even if you are holding something decent like 10-20 BTC, your wealth will be stuck, so you are forced to eventually sell before the fee is higher than your wealth. This is just nuts man, what the fuck?

Well I think the price of Bitcoin will rise to greater than $10,000 before you have any problem about the fees, as long as you are only spending minimum increments of 1 BTC.

Fucking billionaires. Fuck all of you!! I only wanted to make a couple million dollars from my hard working and hustling and long term vision to hodl BTC and retire peacefully and now I will get fucked by insane fees. Fuck this trash, fuck their group, pussies. I was excited to see BTC at 6 figures in 10 years, but I will not be part of it even if i have 10 million worth of BTC because fees will be higher than 10 million BTC? this is insane. When the fuck do I dump this garbage? im too pissed, im going to the gym.

Well at 20 BTC you probably be able to cash out more than a $million if you don't encounter the other pitfalls I mentioned.

We are headed into a difficult time with collapsing governments, chaos, and war.

But if you are clever, you might make it through in a good situation. Remain alert and astute. Don't stop learning.

no, bitcoin will most likely not go to $500,000 in 2030

But you aren't sure.

no, you will not be tortured if you own BTC

Will you guarantee that no one will be imprisoned/tortured for "financial crimes"¹ if they fail to comply with government orders to turn over their private keys?

I want you to make an asshat for yourself so we can enshrine your post later when it is proven that you were incorrect.

no, you will be able to move 1 BTC (we will never reach a point where fee is higher than 1 BTC, it would collapse before we get there, too many angry people will kill the project)

no, bitcoin will not be for billionaires only (devs allowing this will get killed by angry bitcoiners that holded for years only to find out their millions are stuck on the blockchain because the fees are millionaire in itselves)

Your nonsense has been refuted already upthread.

The devs have no control whatsoever dufus.


¹ Read more about this here.

[franky1]

Given 600 blocks per day,
..

..
 Don't stop learning.

144 blocks a day..
but dont stop learning

[iamnotback]

Given 600 blocks per day,
..

..
 Don't stop learning.

144 blocks a day..
but dont stop learning

Thanks I am doing too much multi-tasking (have a short open on LTC at same time writing posts, its 4am and I haven't slept for 2 days, etc). I'll correct my post.

600 blocks is the delay for spending coinbase. Litecoin is closer at 576.

P.S. Readers note that @franky1 has a vendetta against me because I pointed out that he doesn't understand logic and also he makes technological blunders, and then I deleted his vile reply from the thread because I had warned him to be respectful or leave. Every time he acts like an ass, I will advertise his logic error again. Maybe eventually he'll learn to not be an asshurl. Making war against me isn't wise. I'm a sincere person who tries to help others, but I'll destroy asshurls.

Well at 20 BTC you probably be able to cash out more than a $million if you don't encounter the other pitfalls I mentioned.

We are headed into a difficult time with collapsing governments, chaos, and war.

But if you are clever, you might make it through in a good situation. Remain alert and astute. Don't stop learning.

[Pab]

Good quote,our grand children will read about it in his daily news

[Hazir]

We will be 60 years old and we will still be debating how to scale bitcoin. Franky1 and jonald will still be saying how segwit is bad, and kwukduck will still be FUDding on the price and shilling whatever alternative is being proposed (BUcoin, Classicoin, othercoin)

For now it certainly looks like we are stuck - 30% of miners don't care about any scaling solution and they are not signalling anything.
We are testing how far status quo will take us, but patience of users and business is running out.

Meanwhile BTC price will continue going up and so will the fees. BTC will continue working.

BTC might evolve to be ultimate capital investment... and nothing more.

I just hope the fee never becomes so high that people can't even move 1 BTC!!! that would be stupid.

That would be the end and ultimate fail so let's hope we will never see that happen. It defeats the purpose of cryptocurrency.

[lionheart78]

We will be 60 years old and we will still be debating how to scale bitcoin. Franky1 and jonald will still be saying how segwit is bad, and kwukduck will still be FUDding on the price and shilling whatever alternative is being proposed (BUcoin, Classicoin, othercoin)

Meanwhile BTC price will continue going up and so will the fees. BTC will continue working.

I just hope the fee never becomes so high that people can't even move 1 BTC!!! that would be stupid.

But as long as the price goes up the fees will go up too.

The question, when does bitcoin become useless for us? when do we dump because the fee will become higher than our holdings?

I think when you can't even move 1 BTC per coin because the fee is higher than 1 BTC, the price must be super high or it will collapse.

It is logical to think that Fee will be in ever increasing state unless some code is changed and create a fixed amount for transaction fee depending not on the bytes but rather to the amount of BTC to send.  If this ever increasing fee is not fixed, then all I can see is a dead BTC in the future. Or just some expensive store of value at least.

[franky1]

iamnotback

you set your own opinion, yep opinion.
then when people try to correct it you try to defend your opinion by quoting yourself.
same goes for your 'nashian' debates of talking to yourself.

quoting yourself does not make your opinion stronger.

but please try to learn about bitcoin, because the more you talk about FIAT prices the less interested you seem to care about bitcoins sustainability and only seem to be watching for an exit price back to the land of a fiat holder.

anyway goodluck with your life. and i hope one day you do go back holding alot of fiat.

[gentlemand]

I think the people espousing monster fees are already stuck in the mind set that Bitcoin has already triumphed. Maybe in one's own echo chamber, but out in the big bad world that certainly isn't the case.

The longer it survives and the more expensive it becomes to use produces two things - ever increasing knowledge to come up with something better and the incentive to create it.

[BillyBobZorton]

if your basing it on moving 1btc... the answer is naturally when it becomes costly to the point of over 1% (so 0.01btc fee) to move it people will lose preferential desire to hold bitcoin.

I disagree. People will see an incentive to hold bitcoin as long as the price keeps going to the moon. If the fee is 0.01 BTC, but the price of 1 BTC is $10,000 with prospects of going $100,000 BTC, then who is the idiot that doesn't want to hold that?

As long as the price keeps going up and the fees allow you to move your wealth when needed, it will have an incentive to be the holder's coin.

If the fee becomes higher than 99% of people's wealth and only billionaires see a point in using it, well that's a problem, everyone else will have dumped and only a few will be using it (and I don't see how it can survive in this state, since barely any transaction volume would be going on for miners to be worth mining)

[digaran]

No one wants a bitcoin network where they'll have to pay more than 1% of the transaction amount as a fee, paypal taking 2% in average and they even give you the chance of charge back, why are you fooling yourselves? thinking BTC will continue like this, no one forced to use bitcoin in the first place.
Looks like every one forgetting that? people will slowly move on like it never happened. as long as bitcoin has something interesting to say and offer community will follow otherwise they wont go for something that will cause them great loss. some of you are just kids in adult's bodies imagining a $500k per coin price and stuff like that, just wait and see a few month after fees grow higher than 2% you'll see how the support fades away.