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人民日报海外版:朝鲜半岛的死结如何打开?
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Topic: 人民日报海外版:朝鲜半岛的死结如何打开? (Read 133 times)
ourgot
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人民日报海外版:朝鲜半岛的死结如何打开?
April 16, 2017, 11:25:48 PM
#1
这几天,东北亚的画面是这样的:
朝鲜平壤街头充满节日气氛,阅兵式上展示着各种武器装备。朝鲜上空的卫星,监视着朝鲜可能进行新一轮核试验的蛛丝马迹。有关朝鲜即将进行第6轮核试验的推测,充斥国际媒体。就在刚刚过去的4月16日上午,朝鲜试射一枚导弹,但韩国军方和美军太平洋司令部证实试射以失败告终。
而在“三八线”南侧,数十万美韩军队正举行大规模联合军演。与此同时,美国动用战斧式巡航导弹袭击叙利亚目标,向阿富汗“伊斯兰国”恐怖组织投放“炸弹之母”,两则行动均被认为有警告、震慑朝鲜之意。美国航母突然改变航向,开向朝鲜半岛,特朗普更是在推特上发言,称其为“无敌舰队”。美方一再宣称,针对朝鲜半岛问题,所有选项都摆在桌面上,言外之意并不排除使用武力。
面对美国的武力炫耀,朝鲜心知肚明,公开表示不吃这一套,放言如果美方轻举妄动,朝方将以朝鲜式报复打击,在敌对势力的头顶降下“核雷轰和惩罚的闪电”,让其尝尝“真正战争的味道”。
目前,朝鲜半岛局势正呈现新一轮的紧张。用王毅外长的话说,最近一段时间,美韩和朝鲜针锋相对、剑拔弩张,大有山雨欲来之势,这种危险局面的确值得我们高度关注和警惕。
朝鲜和美韩的言行火药味十足,各不相让,像极了同一条轨道上加速对开的两列火车,做好了迎头相撞的准备。然而此时,解决朝核问题的进程却似乎深陷僵局:朝鲜要求美韩先停止联合军演,改变敌视朝鲜的政策,再来谈核问题;美韩要求朝鲜先弃核,再谈改善双边关系。
对朝鲜来说,执念于拥核自保,期望核导计划带给自己更多的安全保障,增加同美韩打交道的筹码。然而事态演变并未如其所愿,朝鲜的核导计划换来越来越多、越来越严厉的制裁,反而给美韩以对朝施加更大军事压力的借口。美韩则痴迷于用各种制裁和军事手段对朝施压,还要演练“斩首”或者“定点清除”。
假设在美韩搞个民意测验,为了消除朝鲜的核威胁,是否可以对朝动武?恐怕很多人会支持。但如果问是否可以冒几十万、数百万生命的危险对朝动武?只要想到现如今阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚、利比亚等国的状况,恐怕很多人就会对此犹豫。朝鲜正是看清了这一问题,明知美韩实力远超自己,也要拿出玉石俱焚、两败俱伤的架势,借此让美韩产生畏难情绪。
朝鲜半岛南北对峙是冷战遗留问题,核问题的根源在于朝鲜和美韩之间战略上根深蒂固的互不信任。美韩指责朝鲜没有弃核的诚意,朝鲜怀疑美韩意在迫朝政权更迭。双方的相互示强,源自各自的安全关切,似乎都有道理,所以谁也不愿在对话和谈问题上先迈出一步。
为了打破朝鲜半岛核问题的僵局,解开半岛问题的死结,中方提出了“双轨并进”的思路和“双暂停”的倡议。这是同步对等地解决半岛各方关切,最终实现半岛长治久安的根本之策,切中了半岛问题的要害。现在美韩对“双暂停”倡议的反应还不积极,但也没有拿出比重启对话更好的“锦囊妙计”。
东北亚地区保持和平稳定,符合各方共同利益。武力解决不了问题,对话才是唯一出路。正如王毅外长所言,“在半岛问题上,不是谁放出的话更狠,谁扬起的拳头更大,谁就能赢。一旦真的发生战乱,结局只会是多输,没有谁能够成为赢家。”目前,虽还未到半岛大战一触即发的程度,但紧张局势已然生成。此时,任何擦枪走火、误解误判,都有可能把事态搞到难以挽回和不可收拾的地步。面对此种情形,对话才是唯一出路。
(作者为本报特约评论员、中国国际问题研究院特聘研究员)
luanli
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Re: 人民日报海外版:朝鲜半岛的死结如何打开?
April 17, 2017, 06:09:35 AM
#2
面对此种情形,对话才是唯一出路。
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