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社评:朝鲜展示对抗,但无奈导弹不争气
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Topic: 社评:朝鲜展示对抗,但无奈导弹不争气 (Read 145 times)
btharry
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社评:朝鲜展示对抗,但无奈导弹不争气
April 17, 2017, 03:57:30 AM
#1
朝鲜于今天上午发射了一枚型号不详的导弹,但据美韩方面说,这枚导弹刚一发射就爆炸了。
昨天朝鲜举行“太阳节”传统阅兵式,展示了至少两款新型导弹,它们是疑似洲际弹道导弹和潜射导弹。这次阅兵式是展示朝鲜新增远程攻击能力最多最集中的一次,但这些导弹大多没有通过测试,它们既给人朝鲜导弹技术快速进步的印象,又让人怀疑它们是平壤对外表演的“花拳绣腿”。
平壤不准备向华盛顿的军事压力屈服,这是从昨天阅兵到今天上午发射导弹向外界传递出的强烈信号,至少世界舆论一致这样看。不过朝鲜今年以来的5次导弹试射失败了4次,这也显示国际制裁在起作用。朝鲜在与世隔绝的状态下搞导弹,难度要大得多。
一些人曾预测的朝鲜在“太阳节”当天搞核试验,没有发生。但是在朝鲜今天不成功的导弹试验之后,它在接下来的某一天进行第六次核试验的可能性增加了。
朝鲜今天搞出一次不成功的导弹试射,这在正常情况下是件比较平常的事。平壤很喜欢在重大节日前后试射导弹,一是对外展示强硬姿态,二是多少有点把导弹“当礼花用”了,三是因为朝鲜导弹主要用的是液体推进剂,燃料灌注后把导弹打出去是最简单的处理方法。因此它不断搞导弹试射,算是“一石多鸟”吧。
这次不一样的地方在于时机。中美近来在抑制朝鲜核导活动方面的态度更加接近,北京加强了对朝制裁措施。美国刚对叙利亚发动军事打击,并在阿富汗使用了“炸弹之母”,特朗普公开表示不排除美国“单独解决”朝核问题,这些被广泛认为是华盛顿发出了军事打击朝鲜的威胁。平壤从昨天到今天的行动展示了最新对抗姿态,显示出把核导活动继续下去的决心。
如果说两天以前球在朝鲜领导人金正恩一边,那么今天球又踢到了特朗普总统一边。华盛顿此前施加的那些压力看上去没有奏效,特朗普“很敢动手”的脾气没有吓住平壤。那么华盛顿就面临了新的难题:不理睬平壤,还是对它干“更大的”呢?全力压平壤,又能怎么做呢?
特朗普应该不会立即对朝鲜发动军事打击,韩国舆论已经非常担心战争爆发了,美国的小型军事打击很可能招来朝鲜对首尔地区的军事报复。对局势的这一复杂性,特朗普政府显然还没有做好充分的预案准备。
华盛顿很可能在现阶段向北京求助,希望中方加大对朝鲜制裁。中国的对朝制裁已经非常严厉,对安理会2321号决议做了不折不扣的执行。如果朝鲜开展第六次核试验,安理会势必通过更严厉的制裁决议,那时北京将会根据决议采取新制裁行动。但是如果现在要中方马上有超出安理会决议的动作,这不符合北京的一贯理念。
阻止朝鲜实施第六次核试验,这已成为当务之急。我们主张,北京应当通过外交管道向平壤清晰表明一个态度:如果它不顾国际社会反对那样做,中国就将停止对它的绝大部分石油供应,中方将支持安理会通过包含这一内容的新制裁决议。
平壤切不可以为它又一次成功打破了外部的压力,这样下去,它的安全形势只会继续恶化,危机没有尽头。不仅国际制裁势必越来越严厉,美国对它发动军事打击的准备也会愈发认真。如果局势真的爆发为军事冲突,受损失最大的肯定是朝鲜这一方。
btharry
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Re: 社评:朝鲜展示对抗,但无奈导弹不争气
April 17, 2017, 04:05:08 AM
#2
导弹是故意发射失败的,因为已经放了狠话就不能认怂,所以想出一导弹失败的理由,不然成功了会被锤的
nice3
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Re: 社评:朝鲜展示对抗,但无奈导弹不争气
April 17, 2017, 04:58:39 AM
#3
如果局势真的爆发为军事冲突,受损失最大的肯定是朝鲜这一方。
luanli
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Re: 社评:朝鲜展示对抗,但无奈导弹不争气
April 17, 2017, 05:31:56 AM
#4
朝鲜表示好气奥
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