ManBearPig's 25th April 2013 BTC/USD Chart inc. Recent News & Moves

[ManBearPig]

Disclaimer: Pretty soon I'm going to run out of disclaimers.

[Kazu]

Disclaimer: Pretty soon I'm going to run out of disclaimers.

I like the whole $211 thing

[Mouser]

9th Jan to 18th Mar: I concur, that is the inherent BTC increase rate.

Your blue line is correct IMO.

If the USD doesn't crash one BTC will have a value of ca 1000 USD in a couple/few years. The blue line will even give the predicted month. Spike(s) could see an ATH over 1000 USD months in advance of the BTC value actually being so.

Fine graph.

[Kazu]

9th Jan to 18th Mar: I concur, that is the inherent BTC increase rate.

Your blue line is correct IMO.

If the USD doesn't crash one BTC will have a value of ca 1000 USD in a couple/few years. The blue line will even give the predicted month. Spike(s) could see an ATH over 1000 USD months in advance of the BTC value actually being so.

Fine graph.

I agree that the blue line is the "real" one, but the question is should you be willing to pay a premium now for BTC, to be able to ride the blue line in the future?

I mean, consider a scenario (I know odd, but it, or a variation, is possible) in which BTC went above the "real" blue line, then went flat until the blue line "caught up." People that bought at the top plateau would still be in pretty good shape.

[ManBearPig]

Interesting that people agree. It's just self-apparent really and I keep referring to it simply because the price, even in volatile times does seem to "have one eye" on that line.

Sometimes I like to pay a premium to be able to sleep easy, this includes stepping out of the market when it looks hairy.

That's why I have life insurance and home insurance though I would be richer without them in the short term

[oda.krell]

9th Jan to 18th Mar: I concur, that is the inherent BTC increase rate.

Your blue line is correct IMO.

If the USD doesn't crash one BTC will have a value of ca 1000 USD in a couple/few years. The blue line will even give the predicted month. Spike(s) could see an ATH over 1000 USD months in advance of the BTC value actually being so.

Fine graph.

I don't get it, how do you get to "1000 USD in a couple/few years" from "blue line is correct IMO"?

ManBearPig says it represents a daily growth of 1.8%. Let's be cautious and start today at 120 USD. In a year from now, we would be at 80,745 USD. Kind of unreal, huh?

[Mouser]

Inherent worth of one BTC = 1000 USD?

Begin here;

April 2011 ca $2, April 2013 ca $139.

So (roughly) $68.50 per year inherent increase.

1000 - 139 = 861

861/68.5 = 12.569 years.

It's a "long" few years according to steady linear growth of the INHERENT bitcoin worth being 1000 USD. Again spikes could see the ATH above 1000 several years and multiple times before the inherent worth catches up.

For example the inherent worth of BTC being 266 USD will occur in;

266 - 139 = 127

127/68.5 = 1.854 years.

Also in about a year and 10 months or February 2015 - but we have already spiked that value once in 2013.

"You've got to know when to hold them."

Don't be a gambler, be smart, buy bitcoins.

[edit] If the US Federal reserve note crashes, 1 BTC will be 1000 USD much faster than 12.6 years.

[bitcon]

another factor that needs to be taken into consideration is that as the price of BTC goes up, the harder it is to double your money.  ie: buying at $1 you just need btc to spoke to $2 to double your investment.  but buying at $200, you need BTC price to spike to $400 to double your investment.

[Kazu]

another factor that needs to be taken into consideration is that as the price of BTC goes up, the harder it is to double your money.  ie: buying at $1 you just need btc to spoke to $2 to double your investment.  but buying at $200, you need BTC price to spike to $400 to double your investment.

Not necessarily. It could be argued that going from $100 to $200 is just as "hard" as going from $1 to $2. Thats why log charts are a thing.

[ManBearPig]

9th Jan to 18th Mar: I concur, that is the inherent BTC increase rate.

Your blue line is correct IMO.

If the USD doesn't crash one BTC will have a value of ca 1000 USD in a couple/few years. The blue line will even give the predicted month. Spike(s) could see an ATH over 1000 USD months in advance of the BTC value actually being so.

Fine graph.

I don't get it, how do you get to "1000 USD in a couple/few years" from "blue line is correct IMO"?

ManBearPig says it represents a daily growth of 1.8%. Let's be cautious and start today at 120 USD. In a year from now, we would be at 80,745 USD. Kind of unreal, huh?

Welcome to the magic of compounding Google it, it really is called that for a reason!

Try it yourself using this great little tool (or make a little Excel sheet): http://www.miniwebtool.com/compound-growth-calculator



I don't extrapolate that far ahead on my recent graphs because it makes me look a little crazy but the figures are all there for you to see as in the case above: $13.77 is where what I believe to be the underlying trend of 2013 began.

[ruski]

So going from June 2011 to now instead, we get a growth rate of 0.224672054899%, implying BTC will be worth $313.057484498 by years' end.

[ManBearPig]

So going from June 2011 to now instead, we get a growth rate of 0.224672054899%, implying BTC will be worth $313.057484498 by years' end.

Yes.

Yes you're right.

I started to type a real answer then realised you're just trolling

But wherever you cherry pick your points, whether it's a real trend or just something you made up, it's hard to see a long-term downward trend.

[Kazu]

So going from June 2011 to now instead, we get a growth rate of 0.224672054899%, implying BTC will be worth $313.057484498 by years' end.

Yes.

Yes you're right.

I started to type a real answer then realised you're just trolling

But wherever you cherry pick your points, whether it's a real trend or just something you made up, it's hard to see a long-term downward trend.

Actually the number $313 by years end is very believable.

[noedaRDH]

[oda.krell]

9th Jan to 18th Mar: I concur, that is the inherent BTC increase rate.

Your blue line is correct IMO.

If the USD doesn't crash one BTC will have a value of ca 1000 USD in a couple/few years. The blue line will even give the predicted month. Spike(s) could see an ATH over 1000 USD months in advance of the BTC value actually being so.

Fine graph.

I don't get it, how do you get to "1000 USD in a couple/few years" from "blue line is correct IMO"?

ManBearPig says it represents a daily growth of 1.8%. Let's be cautious and start today at 120 USD. In a year from now, we would be at 80,745 USD. Kind of unreal, huh?

Welcome to the magic of compounding :) Google it, it really is called that for a reason!

Try it yourself using this great little tool (or make a little Excel sheet): http://www.miniwebtool.com/compound-growth-calculator



I don't extrapolate that far ahead on my recent graphs because it makes me look a little crazy but the figures are all there for you to see as in the case above: $13.77 is where what I believe to be the underlying trend of 2013 began.

That's a nice tool, but I didn't really need it, after all it's just [starting price * 1+growth rate^days].

Which, starting from todays price (conservatively estimated at 120), brings us to 80,745 USD after a year. Your calculator says so as well, by the way :)

But I get it, you're not claiming that will happen, but rather that the price of 13.77 would experience a year of daily 1.8% growth. But that was kind of the point I was trying to make: the problem with exponential growth is that it looks reasonable at first, but at some point, it inevitably breaks down because the numbers reached become unrealistically high.

So in summary, I'm not saying you're wrong for talking about 1.8% daily growth. In fact, in the past few months we might have well encountered it. My response was a reply to mouser who obviously didn't bother to calculate what it means if the price would experience daily growth of 1.8% for a few years -- he wrote it would reach 1000 then, when actually after a few years we reach ~3.9 billion USD per bitcoin :P

[ManBearPig]

Of course all trends are right until they end.

But while we're still technically in one, it can be useful to look at its projection. After all, it's been sustained for 4 months now and that's a LONG time in the Bitcoin universe