Market discussion for newbies

[bitleif]

Since us immature n00bs can't partake in the real discussions, let's start one here. Where do you think BTC is headed? Short term or long term?

Right now we've been hovering in the $150-$160 area for about 20 hours. It seems to me like whenever it goes sideways for too long it starts trending upwards again.

[Djezz]

Seems like its going to go slowly up... look at the D1 grapic at clarkmoody. It goes sideways a bit and then up again. In the Fibonacci figures, it could reach 186. Or make a very high top to 250+. But then again, its a guess.

I think it will go down on the longterm but on short term there still can be a very high top.

[bitchess]

Total speculation.  It's going to cycle randomly between 50 and 500 for next couple years.  Overall trend-line would be correlated with 1. inflation 2. technology stocks

[smdesign28]

I think if something causes a hiccup in the economy, like another Cyprus-like event in the Eurozone within a larger nation, I think we'll see OUTLANDISH gains. I wouldn't even venture a number.

[bitleif]

I think if something causes a hiccup in the economy, like another Cyprus-like event in the Eurozone within a larger nation, I think we'll see OUTLANDISH gains. I wouldn't even venture a number.

I agree. This last top at $250+ was clearly media-hyped. But the thing is that BTC is so new and unknown that every bubble brings in tons of new users, and so the bubbles never deflate back down fully to the starting point. There's no knowing when the next one comes, what drives it, and where it will end up.

[someminerdude]

My only fear, something better comes along. I don't think it will though.

there is tons of skepticism still ... it will take years to get mainstream... we need hardware wallets to make it easier

[bitchess]

My only fear, something better comes along. I don't think it will though.

there is tons of skepticism still ... it will take years to get mainstream... we need hardware wallets to make it easier

Yes, that is one of my fears.  I hope not because the system is quite pure and good.

Agree!  hardware wallets in mobile devices   The day my girlfriend uses it to buy a purse, BTC will have "made it"

[Socket54]

I think there is a storm coming in the mining worlds which will effect btc.

I found out the acis devices can also mine ppcoin and sha-256 coin in general like bitcoin

So i am thinking when the difficulty of mining bitcoins skyrocket(here soon), low end acis miners like me(if i ever get mine) will look to other sources to still be competitive miners.

[Rex_Heston]

Here is what I think:

If you look at the reasons people have for supporting Bitcoin, you have: political reasons (anarchists, libertarians, 99%'ers); technological/geek reasons (cryptology, the "snow crash" aesthetic, futurism); and the privacy people (credit cards and cellphone wallets are a fast approaching major privacy issue, Bitcoin is akin to cash for the internet).

To me, the problem is "what does Average Joe/Jane get out of it that he/she can't with fiat?" Unless you're doing drug deals or something else illegal, or your home currency is dangerously unstable, crypto doesn't have a lot of perceived (emphasis here!) pluses for the average person compared to fiat, unless you fall into those aforementioned groups.

So, I think that Bitcoin may always be a little bit of a niche currency, which I think is fine, and that may change as people's perception of it's value changes.

Full disclosure: I fall into the "privacy" and "technological/geek" categories.

[vega07]

I did think it was headed down, short-term but it is hold up well around 130 level so not sure now.  It will probably drop once some of the buzz leaves it, although maybe not.

[smdesign28]

One more thing. I would not underestimate how aggressively governments will move to wipe out bitcoin once they realize the threat it poses to them. Already, they're trying to regulate bitcoin exchanges out of existence. I think, inevitably, they'll try and make any business or transaction involving bitcoin illegal. They'll eventually fail, of course, but it's going to get ugly while they try. Point is, I'm guessing there'll be a big drop, that will recover.