21 BTC = inflation-adjusted $millionaire in 12 years

[manselr]

In 12 years most of the bitcoin supply will already be mined. 20 million coins mined, the remaining BTC will be the one that goes slowly released through the rest of the 140 year period.

In practice, more than 1 million coins will be lost. This puts the 21 BTC holders in less than 1 million person on the entire planet.

This MUST mean that holders of 21 BTC are at least $millionaires. Otherwise BTC would have been a failure as a store of value (this is irrelevant to the scaling debate).

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[aardvark15]

In 12 years most of the bitcoin supply will already be mined. 20 million coins mined, the remaining BTC will be the one that goes slowly released through the rest of the 140 year period.

In practice, more than 1 million coins will be lost. This puts the 21 BTC holders in less than 1 million person on the entire planet.

This MUST mean that holders of 21 BTC are at least $millionaires. Otherwise BTC would have been a failure as a store of value (this is irrelevant to the scaling debate).

That would make each Bitcoin worth around $47,600 in 12 years. That sounds high, but anything is possible. I also think there will be a large number of Bitcoins permanently lost due to lost private keys, forgotten coins, death of the owner, etc. Once they are lost, they can never be recovered, so the number of lost Bitcoins will continue to rise. This will make Bitcoins even more scarce.

[arklan]

there already are confirmed lost coins in the thousands, at least, not counting satoshi's million or so.

[Viscount]

When we get 5 digit soon, nobody would have doubts about $50000 price 

[HabBear]

I like to dream. Instead of throwing around random numbers let's talk about how much adoption and demand would be required to drive the price from its current $1,200 to $47,000 per coin.

What kind of shifts in behavior and mindset are needed?

How can each of us do something to get us there...small actions now could have huge effects in 12 years. If each of us convinced 10 people to buy some bitcoin and each of those people convinced 10 people to buy some bitcoin, the growth becomes exponential.

[Doms]

12 years is not really a long time and with the estimates I am seeing, the price would seem to be overvalued by then. Unless issues are resolved in those years, scaling, hard fork, unconfirmed transactions, we might be stuck at below $2000 for a while. After a strong start to the year, bitcoin has been somewhat on an up and down ride with the $1200 resistance still a barrier to be broken convincingly.

[pooya87]

the 21 bitcoin has always been a nice number (at least for me) despite the fact that many already have a lot more than that. like the whales and those who had enough faith in bitcoin to invest in it for long term in the days of super low price and keep holding it. they have hundreds if not more bitcoins.

p.s. something tells me the 12 years is not a right number.

[shamzblueworld]

In 12 years most of the bitcoin supply will already be mined. 20 million coins mined, the remaining BTC will be the one that goes slowly released through the rest of the 140 year period.

In practice, more than 1 million coins will be lost. This puts the 21 BTC holders in less than 1 million person on the entire planet.

This MUST mean that holders of 21 BTC are at least $millionaires. Otherwise BTC would have been a failure as a store of value (this is irrelevant to the scaling debate).

In theory it looks possible but you never know what the next invention will be and maybe it outclasses bitcoin or any other present crypto currency and becomes the only choice for a digital currency and then, these bitcoin will not be worth as much.

[Alex1702]

12 years? Too much, in my opinion..

Look around you and you will notice that things are worse than you might have thought. We don't even know what is about to happen tomorrow.

All I know is that things are getting worse, and this happens pretty much every day.. we're just distracted by different things, and therefore we cannot see the regress of our community as a whole. And as soon as things get bad, people are looking for a good place for refuge - that's the moment people are finding the great advantages of Gold, Silver, Cryptocurrencies.

I am looking forward to a fourth of the price you're speaking about. And this price might be seen.. this year. After everything happening around the world, I really do believe this will happen this year.

[Kakmakr]

This is the great thing about Bitcoin. Other commodities like gold for instance is based on scarcity, but new gold deposits are found literally every other year. Bitcoin only have 21 000 000 bitcoins and more and more are lost every day, making it even more scarce.

In the end, only a small percentage of those 21 bitcoin hoarders will still exist, because most of them will be very tempted to sell at 4 figure Bitcoin prices. ^hmmmmm^

[Vaskiy]

This is the great thing about Bitcoin. Other commodities like gold for instance is based on scarcity, but new gold deposits are found literally every other year. Bitcoin only have 21 000 000 bitcoins and more and more are lost every day, making it even more scarce.

In the end, only a small percentage of those 21 bitcoin hoarders will still exist, because most of them will be very tempted to sell at 4 figure Bitcoin prices. ^hmmmmm^

Right now as mentioned holding 21 bitcoin is something a big number for a common man, but the growth it is expected to provide is simply big. Possibly I try hard to have at least 21 bitcoin into my wallet to be one within the one million community.

[Amph]

you don't need 12 years in 4 more years we are already near 19M mined, and in another 4 years you are there around 20M, at that point all the bitcoin dumped would be not from miners anymore

there should be already a very strong buy supoort, because if not, we have a problem, i would go ahead and think that the value will get a zero added for each new halving, $10k in 2020 and $100k in 2024

after that will stabilize between $100k and above, this if everything go right

[RoommateAgreement]

i have found out that it is best to not think about how much bitcoin you need to be worth X amount and things like that.
in my opinion when you ivnest in bitcoin you should invest what you can, whether it is buying 0.01BTC or 21 bitcoin. as long as you buy something with some money you don't need and can let it stay there for a long term. the real value of bitcoin is always shown in long term. we can see it go up from 450 to 1000 and before that from 200 to 450 in 1 year. and so on.

[Ipwich]

I can't imagine the figures but as long as bitcoin will be sucessful I think we will be reach if we start saving now.
It's good that the supply is limited so we can take advantage on the increasing demand, I am not good in match  but simple
analysis tells me that I will be reach if I start start saving now.

[kehtolo]

I like to dream. Instead of throwing around random numbers let's talk about how much adoption and demand would be required to drive the price from its current $1,200 to $47,000 per coin.

What kind of shifts in behavior and mindset are needed?

How can each of us do something to get us there...small actions now could have huge effects in 12 years. If each of us convinced 10 people to buy some bitcoin and each of those people convinced 10 people to buy some bitcoin, the growth becomes exponential.

Ok, I'll try this one.. All it would take is a failure of the Euro.. the US$ to get into trouble and the 10 TRN bond market to have a few hiccups and hell, you're there.

These things havce been predicted to happen for ages now.. i think withing the next 12 years there is a high chance of ALL of them happening.

At this point you are in the top 5% of the world. That is my estimate as to how many people even know about bitcoin, nevemind owning some.
When bad things happen to our traditional currencies, there will be a stampede to find other assets. Bitcoin is one such asset.

[severaldetails]

I like to dream. Instead of throwing around random numbers let's talk about how much adoption and demand would be required to drive the price from its current $1,200 to $47,000 per coin.

What kind of shifts in behavior and mindset are needed?

How can each of us do something to get us there...small actions now could have huge effects in 12 years. If each of us convinced 10 people to buy some bitcoin and each of those people convinced 10 people to buy some bitcoin, the growth becomes exponential.

Ok, I'll try this one.. All it would take is a failure of the Euro.. the US$ to get into trouble and the 10 TRN bond market to have a few hiccups and hell, you're there.

These things havce been predicted to happen for ages now.. i think withing the next 12 years there is a high chance of ALL of them happening.

At this point you are in the top 5% of the world. That is my estimate as to how many people even know about bitcoin, nevemind owning some.
When bad things happen to our traditional currencies, there will be a stampede to find other assets. Bitcoin is one such asset.

I think as well that the real potential of bitcoin lies in the big number of people who have no idea about it or do not use it yet.
And it does not even matter how much one of those is willing to invest.
It would only take a few percent of the world population who use bitcoin from time to time to reach a price level we could never even dream about.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

you don't need 12 years in 4 more years we are already near 19M mined, and in another 4 years you are there around 20M, at that point all the bitcoin dumped would be not from miners anymore

there should be already a very strong buy supoort, because if not, we have a problem, i would go ahead and think that the value will get a zero added for each new halving, $10k in 2020 and $100k in 2024

after that will stabilize between $100k and above, this if everything go right

Do you really think so? I hope these figures become a reality, I'll be a very happy man even if I see $10,000 per bitcoin. 

[york780]

I like to dream. Instead of throwing around random numbers let's talk about how much adoption and demand would be required to drive the price from its current $1,200 to $47,000 per coin.

What kind of shifts in behavior and mindset are needed?

How can each of us do something to get us there...small actions now could have huge effects in 12 years. If each of us convinced 10 people to buy some bitcoin and each of those people convinced 10 people to buy some bitcoin, the growth becomes exponential.

Wont work that way. Btc needs to be pumped to attract new bitcoiners because of FOMO. Now lots of people still think its a scam lol. Only money can drag them in.

[bitebits]

When we get 5 digit soon, nobody would have doubts about $50000 price 

Indeed. A 1000$ bitcoin, after the 2013 bubble, seemed unachievable to many. Today those 1000$ bitcoins are considered cheap.

It is all a matter of perspective. The more Bitcoin is considered to be a store of value, to more valuable it gets.
21 bitcoins is a nice amount to have, and already hard to get for many even today ($25k).

[aardvark15]

you don't need 12 years in 4 more years we are already near 19M mined, and in another 4 years you are there around 20M, at that point all the bitcoin dumped would be not from miners anymore

there should be already a very strong buy supoort, because if not, we have a problem, i would go ahead and think that the value will get a zero added for each new halving, $10k in 2020 and $100k in 2024

after that will stabilize between $100k and above, this if everything go right

I hope you're right that at the year 2024 the price per Bitcoin could be $100,000. A lot of us are going to be wealthy if that's the case. I need to start hoarding more.