Bitcoin Difficulty Estimator (google doc excel)

[rainesdeuce]

I know there are quite a few of these out here, but here is my own version.

This spreadsheet will give you the projected difficulty of Bitcoin by you inputting the Network Hashrate... I know there has been a huge search of "What will difficulty be when..."

So I created this as kind of a ruler:

To think of what the Network Hash rate will be when all ASIC's come out just crunch some basic numbers:

Avalon is shipping about 1500 units in batches 1 thru 3 .. each unit is roughly 70 gigahash .. so 70 * 1500 = 105,000 Gigahash or 105 Terrahash
BFL has 75,000 chips, each supposed to produce 7.5 Ghash so 75000 * 7.5 = 562,500 gigahash or 562.5 Terrahash
Lets just assume there will be some gpu miners staying around so lets just estimate another 80 terrahash on top of those two to account for ASICMiner and gpu and misc..

So you're looking at after bfl sells out of all their current ordered chips, all avalons are online, and all gpus stay up, you're at a total of 747.5 terrahash would be the network hash rate..

Obviously there are quite a few variables that im not accounting for and this is just a rough estimate. But with my chart you can see that at that network hash rate you're looking at the difficulty level of about 98 million ish...

So anyway, here is the link:  (you can edit what you want, but please only change the yellow cells... dont eff up the spreadsheet and make me re-upload it)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Apgy2pGhFTindG1qdzdtNEMwdUs4d1JfYVVCVlZ6dnc&usp=sharing


BTW - I just threw a new sheet up so you can view the same setup with Litecoin as well...  that way you can try to guess what difficulty will be once the ASIC's take over BTC and all the gpu miners move to LTC

Please let me knwo if there are any errors, or if you think you can improve this

Donations greatly appreciated: 1RainQeE1kx9aqDg1AvLiM3Z1FzJUnSfc (BTC) | Laos1Cb2QN7o2uCsqv713tvE7vvdhHRnTN (LTC)

[hstlmn]

nice man, thing is those ASIC are going to be so slow into the market the projections are semi sckewed.

[rassalas]

nice man, thing is those ASIC are going to be so slow into the market the projections are semi sckewed.

I agree, I've been following the threads on the DIY miners,  It's supposed to be open source, but the PCB design
files are not to be released for review until the chips are shipped, to the one preferred assembly house.   
That will be a huge bottleneck. 
I'd like to see more open source on the avalon chip boards,  ie pcb files including schematics written in something like KiCad. 
it's 10 weeks until ship time  to put all the eggs in one basket seems not so open source, short sighted, and likely to fail
with many a wasted or delayed chip.   Of course everyone envisions being among the first to get
a new working rig running,  but it will only be a real rollout if everyone who invests get's their rig around the same time.

[rainesdeuce]

I agree that the ASIC devices are going to be rolling out slow, i just wanted to have an idea as once ALL get rolled out (at least all that are available to order right now) what would the difficulty be, i've seen so many people guessing estimates at like 400 million etc.. and i dont see how that's logical unless there is some crazy hidden asic company that somehow is hiding right now.

[kleeck]

Thanks for this!

[bcmine]

A new Doc with diff for btc/ltc made up to date

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByMof8Ep5EkoYmFKLWNQMEVGTEE/edit?usp=sharing

[Strawbtcerries]

Was it predicted by satoshi that it would be this difficult to mine?

[Velkro]

Its kinda dangerous to use such links, security first.

[futurebit640]

A new Doc with diff for btc/ltc made up to date

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByMof8Ep5EkoYmFKLWNQMEVGTEE/edit?usp=sharing

link is down for me

[kogmaw]

cant you just go to bitcoinwisdom and see the next increase.