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Author Topic: Speculation on the price of BTC if Bitfinex does a Gox  (Read 2432 times)
Wind_FURY
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April 20, 2017, 01:42:12 AM
 #1

First of all this is only a hypothetical question. Second, the purpose of asking is to find out how robust and strong the community thinks the Bitcoin market is since MtGox.

If Bitfinex became like MtGox, what price do you believe Bitcoin will fall to?

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April 20, 2017, 01:45:12 AM
 #2

http://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

They have 1/4 of the volume of poloniex and kraken is with 3 mil behind bitfinex and 4th one is only 9 mil behind


I doubt it will have a bigger impact then 100-175 on the price

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April 20, 2017, 02:07:11 AM
 #3

This time a much bigger impact same as that of MtGox won't take place, because during the incident majority​ of the mined coins were held in the hands of a single exchange authority. Now the scenario is different, which will not causea big drop in price more than $100 or $200 to the max.

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April 20, 2017, 02:40:42 AM
 #4

since bitfinex is the farthest it possibly can to Mt Gox and also the situation is not at all similar to it, this topic is moot in my opinion.

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April 20, 2017, 03:01:56 AM
 #5

Let's put it this way,  if bitfinex bites it, the price of bitcoin will fall to a price that makes it a screaming buy.  I do hope the price plunges,  but I'm really not hoping for another exchange to close.  You know as well as me that there have been way too many disasters.   

My opinion is that the price isn't going to drop, though, even if their insolvency came today.  Bitcoin is just too resistant at this point to the foibles of any one exchange.   It'll live and keep growing.

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April 20, 2017, 03:45:29 AM
 #6

~
My opinion is that the price isn't going to drop, ~

logically speaking price shouldn't drop because there is no reason for it to drop. when you compare bitfinex to the total daily volume traded in bitcoin you can see that they are tiny with their less than 8% volume of total.
and also on top of that, even if they close down today, majority of users have already cashed out their bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies out of pure fear! so there isn't really much left on the platform!!

but we all know bitcoin price has never been logical. so if bitfinex closes down, price will drop because again majority of traders are looking for any excuse to dump and buy the weak hands cheap.

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April 20, 2017, 04:17:56 AM
 #7

First of all this is only a hypothetical question. Second, the purpose of asking is to find out how robust and strong the community thinks the Bitcoin market is since MtGox.

If Bitfinex became like MtGox, what price do you believe Bitcoin will fall to?

Down down down.

It's obvious.

That's what happened with Mt Gox, and around the same time there was a huge hype about bitcoin too.

It always seem like that exchanges have problems when the price is sky high.

Hopefully, it's going to be alright and it's just a false alarm and people wait it out and Bitfinex and USDT returns to normal operation. But there is obviously a very very big probability that something bad's going to happen :|

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April 20, 2017, 04:25:34 AM
 #8

First of all this is only a hypothetical question. Second, the purpose of asking is to find out how robust and strong the community thinks the Bitcoin market is since MtGox.

If Bitfinex became like MtGox, what price do you believe Bitcoin will fall to?

Well I think we've seen how the market reacted negatively to the news of Bitfinex getting hacked.

I think there is going to be something similar to what happened when hundreds of thousands of bitcoins got stolen from Bitfinex.

However based on how Bitfinex has been able to repay its investors and balance holders on their site in general, I believe that they will probably not pull a "Gox". I mean BFX absolutely climbed in price from less than half a dollar to a dollar.

If it ever happens, it'll be down for sure. Negative news isn't going to drive the price of bitcoin up.

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April 20, 2017, 04:41:29 AM
 #9

It will be second time that bitfinex is on a egde. Last time they survived and they regained trust (I really doon't know how) and price dropped around 300 dollars if I remember good. There was big drama and price recovered pretty fast.
It didn't pass too much time and they are in same situation, I don't know what is with people there is good exchanges why people are always choose the most risky one.

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April 20, 2017, 05:36:53 AM
 #10

how robust and strong the community thinks the Bitcoin market is since MtGox.

back in 2013ish at the time of Mt Gox, there weren't really any other bitcoin exchanges that mattered. most of them were too small to even be considered. Mt Gox had more than 70-75% of the the total daily trading volume in the whole world!

today at 2017 the daily volume has grown and it is spread among lots of trading platforms. the share of Bitfinex from this market is only less than 8-9%.

also it is worth mentioning that you can still withdraw any cryptocurrency from Bitfinex, as many are withdrawing their bitcoins.

If Bitfinex became like MtGox, what price do you believe Bitcoin will fall to?
if by "became like Mt Gox" you mean insolvency and them closing "all" the withdrawals then yes i believe bitcoin price will fall but it is impossible to tell fall to what.
as i said people have already withdrawn many of their coins from this exchange and then closing down is like closing down 9% of the market! but it is all about the panic sells and that is unpredictable.
it may be small down to $1100!

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April 20, 2017, 06:51:29 AM
 #11

If something bad happens, then the exchange rates can crash by as much as 30%. That means that we will go back to three digits. But it seems like people have learnt their lesson. Most of the users are not keeping their coins on exchange sites.
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April 20, 2017, 07:08:14 AM
 #12

If something bad happens, then the exchange rates can crash by as much as 30%. That means that we will go back to three digits. But it seems like people have learnt their lesson. Most of the users are not keeping their coins on exchange sites.
hey if they lose their coins they cant dump them anymore Cheesy

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April 20, 2017, 08:46:47 AM
 #13

if not panic selling effect to bitcoin price is not big maximum 200 dollar, or bitcoin price still above 1000 dollar
but if panic selling, can remember, after bitfinex announcement hack, bitcoin price is down and follow panic selling bitcoin price down significant if use precentage


 
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April 20, 2017, 09:02:58 AM
 #14

~
My opinion is that the price isn't going to drop, ~

logically speaking price shouldn't drop because there is no reason for it to drop. when you compare bitfinex to the total daily volume traded in bitcoin you can see that they are tiny with their less than 8% volume of total.
and also on top of that, even if they close down today, majority of users have already cashed out their bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies out of pure fear! so there isn't really much left on the platform!!

but we all know bitcoin price has never been logical. so if bitfinex closes down, price will drop because again majority of traders are looking for any excuse to dump and buy the weak hands cheap.

Agreed mate. Bitfinex has only 8% of the total value. So the impact on the market price is slim. But I don't think that it will go to 3 digit figure. Bitcoin price has been resilient lately to any issue to bring the price down. So I don't believe the impact will be huge to price. As pointed as well, many has already withdraw most of the funds out of Bitfinex, many traders has either Kraken and Poloniex as their main trading platforms already.

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April 20, 2017, 09:10:23 AM
 #15

First of all this is only a hypothetical question. Second, the purpose of asking is to find out how robust and strong the community thinks the Bitcoin market is since MtGox.

If Bitfinex became like MtGox, what price do you believe Bitcoin will fall to?

The worse case scenario is $850.
A more realistic one would be in the $950-$1075 range.
It also depends on what news the SegWit/BU drama brings (if any).

I expect the shock to be pretty short however (under 3 months), if this will really happen.

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April 20, 2017, 09:26:54 AM
 #16

$1000
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April 20, 2017, 09:28:37 AM
 #17

$1050 if traders get goxed again. If it happens to an country like Japan that are quite new to BTC than the effect will be a lot bigger

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April 20, 2017, 11:01:09 AM
 #18

It would drop below the $1000 level, but the main damage will come from the over-exaggerated panic among traders. It has always been like this. In that regard, I wouldn't be surprised if there will be a very sharp dump towards the $700's, where after that it will more or less move between $900-$1000 for a while. We'll surely recover from this, but it once again shows that current exchanges are being operated by incompetend amateurs not being able to handle hundreds of millions in funds.

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April 20, 2017, 11:11:19 AM
 #19

Isn't the okcoin and btc-e also have similar problem lately due to their Taiwanese bank? All have stopped bank wire deposit and probably also withdrawal just like bitfinex. So i don't think bitfinex going to be another GOX.

However if it does than i don't think price will fall below 1100$.

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gentlemand
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April 20, 2017, 11:20:57 AM
 #20

back in 2013ish at the time of Mt Gox, there weren't really any other bitcoin exchanges that mattered. most of them were too small to even be considered. Mt Gox had more than 70-75% of the the total daily trading volume in the whole world!

By the time Gox was officially dead it had been a zombie for quite some time. It was overtaken by Bitstamp, let alone China, in late 2013 and then gradually dwindled.

I think the real killer was all the old school fools who still kept money on there from back in the day.

Bitfinex's final fuckup has been on the cards for so unbelievably long that I don't believe it becoming a reality would be much of a disaster.

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