2013-04-25 RedOrbit -Economists Question Bitcoin Stability Despite Meteoric Rise

[StarfishPrime]

Economists Question Bitcoin Stability Despite Meteoric Rise In Value

http://www.redorbit.com/news/technology/1112831059/bitcoin-users-at-risk-042513/

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According to a new study from Southern Methodist University in Dallas and Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, the virtual cyber currency known as Bitcoin could have as much as a 45 percent chance of failing. This could occur if an exchange center that held the currency – much as a bank holds real money – closed, losing customers their Bitcoins and any hard money paid for them.
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My bet's on the 55% chance of survival

[TraderTimm]

Haha, less than a 50/50 chance eh? I knew economists just flipped a coin for everything they do - those freaking muppets. I'd use this as a contrarian indicator actually.

[Roger_Murdock]

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According to a new study from Southern Methodist University in Dallas and Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, the virtual cyber currency known as Bitcoin could have as much as a 45 percent chance of failing. This could occur if an exchange center that held the currency – much as a bank holds real money – closed, losing customers their Bitcoins and any hard money paid for them.
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Right, because the closure of an exchange = the failure of the currency.  You also have to love that description of fiat as "hard money."

[superduh]

give them a break- those guys are dinoasuours trying to stay relevant

[kiba]

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According to a new study from Southern Methodist University in Dallas and Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, the virtual cyber currency known as Bitcoin could have as much as a 45 percent chance of failing. This could occur if an exchange center that held the currency – much as a bank holds real money – closed, losing customers their Bitcoins and any hard money paid for them.
...

Right, because the closure of an exchange = the failure of the currency.  You also have to love that description of fiat as "hard money."

I thought the chance of failing was about the mortality rate of bitcoin exchanges, not the currency itself.

[Roger_Murdock]

I thought the chance of failing was about the mortality rate of bitcoin exchanges, not the currency itself.

Yeah, that's where the 45% figure appears to come from (18 out of 40 identified exchanges have closed), but that's not how that sentence was written. Probably just another example of the media's perpetual tendency to conflate Bitcoin exchanges with Bitcoin itself.

[fancy_pants]

I've heard that mtgox holds 5% of the bitcoins.  does anyone know if that's true of if that's still the biggest exchange out there?

[grondilu]

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According to a new study from Southern Methodist University in Dallas and Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, the virtual cyber currency known as Bitcoin could have as much as a 45 percent chance of failing. This could occur if an exchange center that held the currency – much as a bank holds real money – closed, losing customers their Bitcoins and any hard money paid for them.
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Maybe this article is related:

The problem with predictions: Speaker says peering into future remains an imperfect science