Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic

[dan99]

mostly scarey talk by those who has bought the asic miner and those jealous of those who own this miner because they can't afford them...this kind of conversation was going on when Avalon was about to launched their asic miner and this same group make the same conversation and they go on and on ...

[1714610961]

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[1714610961]

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[jspielberg]

My spreadsheet which doesn't try to time when any particular asics are being deployed forecasts 400,000,000+ difficulty by January 1st.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dG9fRkpXdFJtT1dNX0VCU1F0VFFUX3c&usp=sharing

Again, this is purely an extrapolated exponential forecast which trends to past difficulty fairly well, but will break down as the exponential is not permanently sustainable.

[lazydna]

mostly scarey talk by those who has bought the asic miner and those jealous of those who own this miner because they can't afford them...this kind of conversation was going on when Avalon was about to launched their asic miner and this same group make the same conversation and they go on and on ...

that is different. avalon was the first asic machine. now you have to fight against all the preordered asics that were backlogged coming online now.
not to mention the manufacturers using avalon chips to produce asic modules that are hitting 200+ g/hash.

avalon only had to kill gpu's by offering 30x the power at 1/4 the power costs.

now the best that can come is 4x the power @ slightly more power costs and cheaper up front costs.

the gap between gpu--->asic 1st gen is much larger then the coming gap of asic 1st gen to 2nd gen. which means its less profitable for asics overall.

i think an asic NOW, 60g/hash, would be profitable now. but getting a 60g/hash machine a month from now is very risky.

[hl5460]

Currently the only actual and accountable ASIC is Avalon, others are vaporware. BTC garden may be a surprise of 100T. BFL is way behind and almost negligible.
So I predict that by the end of 2013. There will be around 650T hashing power.

[cp1]

BFL is picking up steam -- at their current pace by the end of 2013 they will have shipped all preorders.