Kinetic915 (OP)
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June 08, 2013, 10:20:24 AM |
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Hello all,
What do you predict the bitcoin difficulty to be by the end of the year. Will most lower level asics (jalapeño) be irrelevant?
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KSV
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June 08, 2013, 10:23:22 AM |
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at least 130,000,000. Probably not irrelevant but negligible.
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wiggi
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June 10, 2013, 10:30:26 AM Last edit: June 12, 2013, 06:57:54 PM by wiggi |
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if you can use trend lines on this on (as opposed to price chart more like 2,000,000,000+ (<- edit: 200,000,000 of course, not 2 billion) (i.e. 2,000,000 GH/s) 76k May low and 124k June low are not even a month apart.
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Voodah
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June 11, 2013, 08:31:45 PM |
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if you can use trend lines on this on (as opposed to price chart more like 2,000,000,000+ (i.e. 2,000,000 GH/s) 76k May low and 124k June low are not even a month apart. I was thinking it would be something like 150,000,000.. Can you explain to me how you get to such a number?
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Kinetic915 (OP)
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June 11, 2013, 09:02:08 PM |
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if you can use trend lines on this on (as opposed to price chart more like 2,000,000,000+ (i.e. 2,000,000 GH/s) 76k May low and 124k June low are not even a month apart. yeah 2 billion sounds insanely high lol
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mgio
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June 11, 2013, 09:41:33 PM |
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Around 100 million.
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kodo
Newbie
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June 12, 2013, 12:19:19 AM |
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the newest ASICS today will be worth nothing by end of year
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wiggi
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June 12, 2013, 04:44:14 PM |
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yeah 2 billion sounds insanely high lol
Silly me, got confused with hashrate and difficulty chart. So, 200 million+ with current steep trend.
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.m.
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June 12, 2013, 04:49:40 PM |
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my guess (valid around September : over 1,000,000 Ghps,probably twice as much) - feel free to amend :
# HashSpeedNet:30.3.:60Thps - 30.5.:110Thps => 50Thps/61d=> +820Ghps/den (=3000 cips/day[280Mhps]) daysFrom20130330=180 # end of September ## 1500 Batch 2-3 Avalons represent ~100TH alone. Even assuming the most optimistic delivery time of 2 weeks from now ## 2013/06/10 : kncminer.orderID=1840 ? say half 175gh and half 350gh ## ?? bitfury ?! 5Ghps,6w chip - not included yet !! #avalon +avalon71+ asicMinerUsbErupter+asicMinerBlade+BFL+knc175 addASICS=88*10000*0.282 + 1500*71.0 +0.336*5000 + 10.0*1000 + 12.0*500 + 12.0*500 + 175*1000 + 350*1000 def HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330): return daysFrom20130330*820+6e4+addASICS # Ghps allBTCperDay=24*6*25.0 # BTC chipsMining=100 # chips bought and crunching chipHashSpeed=0.280 # Giga hash per sec def myHashPower(): return (chipHashSpeed*chipsMining) # Ghps def dailyReward(daysFrom20130330): return myHashPower()/HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330)*allBTCperDay # I get proportional part of all mined BTCs ## reward through X days daysRunning=75 #days START=180 # days after 30.3. def reward(): return reduce(lambda x,y:x+y,map(lambda q:dailyReward(q),range(START,START+daysRunning))) # BTC ## costs usdPerBTC=109.0 btcPerChip=.09 # btc def costsAround1(): return(130*1.3/usdPerBTC+15.0*1.3/usdPerBTC)/chipsMining # pcb+other parts(130eur),postal(15 eur all),...? BTC powerConsPerChipPlus=3.0 # watts including parts around btcPerKWh=0.15/usdPerBTC def costs(): return (btcPerChip+costsAround1())*chipsMining+powerConsPerChipPlus/1000.0*chipsMining*btcPerKWh*daysRunning # in BTC (reward(),costs()) ## kncminer 175GHps chipsMining=1 chipHashSpeed=175.0 btcPerChip=3795.0/usdPerBTC powerConsPerChipPlus=500 daysRunning=71 def costsAround1(): return 280/usdPerBTC #postal ups next day (reward(),costs())
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kodo
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June 12, 2013, 10:21:16 PM |
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If you have an asic on preorder, cancel it! By the time you recieve it your rig will be way outdated.
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ftping
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200 OK
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June 12, 2013, 11:43:10 PM |
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my guess (valid around September : over 1,000,000 Ghps,probably twice as much) - feel free to amend :
# HashSpeedNet:30.3.:60Thps - 30.5.:110Thps => 50Thps/61d=> +820Ghps/den (=3000 cips/day[280Mhps]) daysFrom20130330=180 # end of September ## 1500 Batch 2-3 Avalons represent ~100TH alone. Even assuming the most optimistic delivery time of 2 weeks from now ## 2013/06/10 : kncminer.orderID=1840 ? say half 175gh and half 350gh ## ?? bitfury ?! 5Ghps,6w chip - not included yet !! #avalon +avalon71+ asicMinerUsbErupter+asicMinerBlade+BFL+knc175 addASICS=88*10000*0.282 + 1500*71.0 +0.336*5000 + 10.0*1000 + 12.0*500 + 12.0*500 + 175*1000 + 350*1000 def HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330): return daysFrom20130330*820+6e4+addASICS # Ghps allBTCperDay=24*6*25.0 # BTC chipsMining=100 # chips bought and crunching chipHashSpeed=0.280 # Giga hash per sec def myHashPower(): return (chipHashSpeed*chipsMining) # Ghps def dailyReward(daysFrom20130330): return myHashPower()/HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330)*allBTCperDay # I get proportional part of all mined BTCs ## reward through X days daysRunning=75 #days START=180 # days after 30.3. def reward(): return reduce(lambda x,y:x+y,map(lambda q:dailyReward(q),range(START,START+daysRunning))) # BTC ## costs usdPerBTC=109.0 btcPerChip=.09 # btc def costsAround1(): return(130*1.3/usdPerBTC+15.0*1.3/usdPerBTC)/chipsMining # pcb+other parts(130eur),postal(15 eur all),...? BTC powerConsPerChipPlus=3.0 # watts including parts around btcPerKWh=0.15/usdPerBTC def costs(): return (btcPerChip+costsAround1())*chipsMining+powerConsPerChipPlus/1000.0*chipsMining*btcPerKWh*daysRunning # in BTC (reward(),costs()) ## kncminer 175GHps chipsMining=1 chipHashSpeed=175.0 btcPerChip=3795.0/usdPerBTC powerConsPerChipPlus=500 daysRunning=71 def costsAround1(): return 280/usdPerBTC #postal ups next day (reward(),costs())
Assumptions: - Most Avalon chips are shipped by ~July. - Chip users are able to build their clones and ship the majority of their products by September. - KNCMiner is successful with their 28nm process and does not run into any major delays with any part of the design, engineering, construction, production, and shipping processes. - BitFury isn't a scam, does not run into problems with the chips or design of their modules - The rest of Avalon B2 and B3 are received and up and running .. And I probably forgot some. If you have an asic on preorder, cancel it! By the time you recieve it your rig will be way outdated.
Assumption: - The market value of BTC is not high enough to make up for the increased difficulty
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No 1
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Ad Infinitum Et Ultra
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June 13, 2013, 01:51:09 AM |
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$230 easy... remember what happened on my last prediction:)
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12wqXQuExLnWoWWQy7j35hzBEW91bUz1YS LcbBQ5oXtTjyKK4V8iaDqgUAAtahv9nsHR
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notme
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June 13, 2013, 03:19:08 AM |
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$230 easy... remember what happened on my last prediction:)
Difficulty is not measured in dollars.
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.m.
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June 13, 2013, 11:09:31 AM |
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... but electricity is - so I believe there is a connection. I believe it is very tough race,decided not to invest now. re - asumptions : see " bitfury ... not included yet !!" ... but those are the ones I would say could work for a while.
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spiral_mind
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June 13, 2013, 07:37:17 PM |
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I've read many people's estimates and ran some of my own and I would guess about 200 million by end of year.
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notme
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June 13, 2013, 07:57:00 PM |
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... but electricity is - so I believe there is a connection. I believe it is very tough race,decided not to invest now. re - asumptions : see " bitfury ... not included yet !!" ... but those are the ones I would say could work for a while.
Higher price leads to higher difficulty. Higher difficulty does not lead to higher price.
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cp1
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June 13, 2013, 07:58:57 PM |
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If the newest asics aren't worth running then no one will run them and the difficulty won't be what you predict.
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servicelabs
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itkylin.com
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June 16, 2013, 12:08:24 PM |
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Around 200 million.
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elefter
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June 16, 2013, 12:29:14 PM |
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If the newest asics aren't worth running then no one will run them and the difficulty won't be what you predict.
Im seeing double!
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cp1
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June 16, 2013, 06:56:03 PM |
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Im seeing double! Groovy
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dan99
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June 17, 2013, 04:41:56 AM |
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mostly scarey talk by those who has bought the asic miner and those jealous of those who own this miner because they can't afford them...this kind of conversation was going on when Avalon was about to launched their asic miner and this same group make the same conversation and they go on and on ...
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lazydna
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June 17, 2013, 05:01:21 AM |
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mostly scarey talk by those who has bought the asic miner and those jealous of those who own this miner because they can't afford them...this kind of conversation was going on when Avalon was about to launched their asic miner and this same group make the same conversation and they go on and on ...
that is different. avalon was the first asic machine. now you have to fight against all the preordered asics that were backlogged coming online now. not to mention the manufacturers using avalon chips to produce asic modules that are hitting 200+ g/hash. avalon only had to kill gpu's by offering 30x the power at 1/4 the power costs. now the best that can come is 4x the power @ slightly more power costs and cheaper up front costs. the gap between gpu--->asic 1st gen is much larger then the coming gap of asic 1st gen to 2nd gen. which means its less profitable for asics overall. i think an asic NOW, 60g/hash, would be profitable now. but getting a 60g/hash machine a month from now is very risky.
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hl5460
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news.8btc.com
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June 17, 2013, 05:09:12 AM |
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Currently the only actual and accountable ASIC is Avalon, others are vaporware. BTC garden may be a surprise of 100T. BFL is way behind and almost negligible. So I predict that by the end of 2013. There will be around 650T hashing power.
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cp1
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June 17, 2013, 03:27:17 PM |
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BFL is picking up steam -- at their current pace by the end of 2013 they will have shipped all preorders.
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