Martingale Question - Risk Big or Stay Safe?

[puremage111]

What's your strategy here?

I have came across with this question and doubt and for me

Risking safe
Win rate 55% and Above with martingale require a very huge bankroll and the rate of return is okish, still one streak lose and you are done.

Risking big
Win rate <50%, i even tried with a win rate of 0.01 - 0.05%. Basically a 0.01 is the same chance as hitting a jackpot of number 77.77. It is very risky and somehow its almost impossible but the reward is just god damn huge.

With the setting
Bankroll : $10
base bet : 100 Satoshi
0.05% win chance
increment on loss of 1.01%



Result of simulate with Seuntjie dice Bot [ Each try with $10]
- Lose
- Lose
- Lose
- Lose
- Win on bet #201 , Profit 0.013 Btc
- Lose
- Lose
- Win on bet #286, Profit 0.032 Btc
- Win on bet #245, Profit 0.021 Btc
- Win on bet #166, Profit 0.009 Btc
- Lose
- Lose
- Lose
- Lose
- Lose
- Lose
- Win on bet #234, Profit 0.019 Btc
- Lose
- Win on bet #344, Profit 0.057 Btc
- Lose
- Win on bet #356, Profit 0.066 Btc
- Lose
- Lose
- Win on bet #65, Profit 0.003 Btc
- Lose
- Lose
- Lose
- Lose
- Lose
- Win on bet #402, Profit 0.1 Btc


Result of 30 Bet
Win - 9 Time - 0.32 Btc
Losses - 21 Time - 0.21 Btc

9/30 * 100% = 30%
Will do more times as require a huge tries to calculate the true value




With $10, it can afford to lose 463 Time
To achieve a losing streak of 463 Time, the chance of occur with 0.05% chance is 79.329677%.
Of course, this does not mean that we will have 21% chance of wining when we are on the 463 time, we are still having the same winning chance.
Anyhow, if we really got lucky to win
If we wini at streak number #401 ~ #463
The Winning Profit = 0.1 btc ~ 0.18 btc ~ $100 - $200

From this calculation, could the statement below be made
Risking $10 for $100 with a chance of 21%?

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[Red-Apple]

maybe it is just me but i don't like these numbers much, i mean making calculations like this. because in dice it will always come down to luck. you can start betting with 0.01% chance of win and then win on the first roll! or do the same and never win not even after 463 times or 926 or 1389 times.

and that is why i don't like the second strategy (risking big). and also not the first safe one either. i prefer a more "in the middle" kind of strategy. and that means not 0.01% and not 90% chance. something along the lines of 40% to 60% chance of winning is good for me.

[Caladonian]

thanks for sharing this mate, it gather my attention when i see your strategy if luck accompany us with this a good profits will follow,
the only thing with dice games or any other luck base games even you got a good method the possibility to burned your bankroll is
really big, will try to study this and use the faucets rewards.

[lorylore]

Either way, i will see it as the same as the percentage of winning is always less than half and the difference is not a lot. It is more of what is your objective of playing. Are you looking for a huge win or a lot of small successes. Understand your gambling needs and address them accordingly. Otherwise you are just playing for the sake of playing.

[ralle14]

With risking big you also need a big bankroll just by looking at the simulation you did from seuntjie you lost 4 sessions plus the 200 from the 5th session(2000+ bets in total) before hitting the multiplier. Don't you think the 1980 multiplier is too much? I almost used the same setting (but with a multiplier from 100-150, the base is at 1000-3000 satoshi) and it worked after 5-10 sessions managed to gain a profit of 0.03btc from a 0.01 deposit.

[SyGambler]

usually when I martinagle I set the payout between X1.2-X3 , each time I play with different method
wouldn't bother with calculations cause basically are all the same and your profit/loss ratio shouldn't be affected
 

[cjmoles]

I hope this works out for you all....I guess if you have unlimited funds it may be worth a go....but I wouldn't risk more than I'm prepared to lose....always err on the side of safety.

[piloder]

Couldn't figure out what you like to conclude with all this calculation. Talking about personal view on martingale strategy, i think all this results can't be repeated in next try, 0.05% chance of winning always mean 0.05% chance of winning in long term if you are playing in probably fair dice site.

[LoyceV]

From this calculation, could the statement below be made
Risking $10 for $100 with a chance of 21%?

No.
It doesn't matter how you play, or what you calculate. Without a house edge, your chance of increasing 10-fold is only 10%. With a house edge, the chance gets slightly smaller (depending on how you play).

You can't use previous or simulated results to predict the next result.

[puremage111]

From this calculation, could the statement below be made
Risking $10 for $100 with a chance of 21%?

No.
It doesn't matter how you play, or what you calculate. Without a house edge, your chance of increasing 10-fold is only 10%. With a house edge, the chance gets slightly smaller (depending on how you play).

You can't use previous or simulated results to predict the next result.

True, i've been thinking all these time and in fact on some research

Martingale doesn't increase your chance of winning, but it delay the time of you to lose which shows you doesn't lose so fast i guess

[peter0425]

From this calculation, could the statement below be made
Risking $10 for $100 with a chance of 21%?

No.
It doesn't matter how you play, or what you calculate. Without a house edge, your chance of increasing 10-fold is only 10%. With a house edge, the chance gets slightly smaller (depending on how you play).

You can't use previous or simulated results to predict the next result.

True, i've been thinking all these time and in fact on some research

Martingale doesn't increase your chance of winning, but it delay the time of you to lose which shows you doesn't lose so fast i guess

True. It will only delay but eventually you will loss it anyway. I think you need more "experimentation" to calculate the percentage of chance you gonna win. But in the end, it doesn't matter because with the house edge you still gonna loss the initial advantage so its temporary and it only delay your losing.

[coolcoinz]

To answer your question I wouldn't martingale at all. This strategy is flawed and can work on real casinos, when your luck is your own. This means that if you have 5 dice throws it's almost impossible for all 5 to be the same number, but in an internet casino your throws are not consecutive. It's rather like throwing in turns with 5 other people and each of your throws is like 1 out of 5 then another 1 out of five and so on until you reach 5 yourself. Once you understand this you'll never martingale a bitcoin dice site.

[olushakes]

With the analysis you have there very succinct and even straight to the point, I must confess I got lost when it comes to crunching of numbers.  I really dont use bots because of the feeling that 'I should have done it better and the strategy of course involves lots of analysis and record keeping to the best of my knowledge or else a miss of one could mean losing a potential win or even losing big thinking its winning time. Above all I will agree with your conclusion and even these days we have seen house edge going as high as possible which further reduces the chance of winning.

[digaran]

I have tried similar strategies and can say with confidence that if you have a decent large bankroll it is possible and actually worth the risk, if you of course have patience and don't act impulsive as most of the gamblers play impulsive and they don't plan with strategy.

You need to remember to change client seeds at least every 10 rolls. however I never use any bots-auto bet function to set my strategy because what I use requires manual manipulation of odds and bets.

Note that in most of the online casinos I've encountered consecutive red streaks to the point of 0 bankroll, what do you have to say about that? even with changing client seed I only got red no matter the amount or the bet. that is something that scares me away from deploying such strategies.

[goinmerry]

Martingale doesn't increase your chance of winning, but it delay the time of you to lose which shows you doesn't lose so fast i guess

On the other hand, martingale giving us a chance to grab profit for a x2 payout for each bet loss. The chances is 1/10 so grab it as we all know that loss will come in a long term of betting.

Let's say for min. 10,000 sats=20,000 sats=40,000 sats=80,000 sats=160,000 sats=320,000 sats=640,000 sats=1,280,000 sats=2,560,000 sats (win)!, Even at 1/10 bets, surely it will give you a win. But why the output is always ended up lose? Because the win that martingale will gave us is 1/10 meaning grab the chance to get out once you hit it hard. Anyways who will get out if they feel luck?

[marlboroza]

0.05% chance is something around 2000X.
I don't think simulator is good, it simulates 9 hits within 2200 rolls, if you hit 1 time out of 2200 you can be happy.
But if you want to test with 10$ than go for it, just don't become greedy if you hit it and don't try to recover if you lose it.

[serjent05]

Martingale system is profitable if we have huge bankroll and knows when to quit.  No matter what system we use if we do not know the right timing to quit we will never win.  I always do a martingale of x3 when lost and returning to base when win.  It gives me a good profit but I agree one streak of straight loses can make you say bye bye to your bankroll.

[uneng]

It will be always proportional... Decrease payout, winning chance increases / Increase payout, winning chance decreases... I think the amount doesn't worth the risk, if you try it you will always lose money on long run.
21% is too low and the 79% is too much, remembering it's just the average, if you are unlucky it can become even harder.

[Janation]

I think this is a good simulation to show most of the gamblers here that these strategy can't win your gambling activities. As you can see, the results are really bad. I think using such strategy requires a big bankroll because it is a really risky strategy. I prefer using my free satoshi and nust have fun with it, at the same time, I am not thinking that I will lose.

[swogerino]

This is a good simulation but it doesn't work on online gambling houses. They use different softwares for monitoring your bets and each outcome have the same chance to come out like the previous one or differently. This means that martingale system will not work with these softwares. Martingale you can try in offline gambling houses but you need to lay low with low bets otherwise some casinos may kick you out if they see what you are doing.