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李稻葵:资本管制放松应该在下半年 具体看美元走势
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Topic: 李稻葵:资本管制放松应该在下半年 具体看美元走势 (Read 138 times)
Kathlemm
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李稻葵:资本管制放松应该在下半年 具体看美元走势
April 25, 2017, 04:59:17 PM
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当地时间2017年4月22日,哈佛中国论坛在美国举行。会后,凤凰财经就外汇资本管制放松的时间表向原央行货币政策委员会委员李稻葵提问,他认为,具体还要看美元的走势,但总体估计应该是在下半年。
谈及中国亮眼的一季度GDP数据,李稻葵表示,目前经济增长的来源主要是:其一,房地产价格增长,交易量的飞速增长,支撑了本次中国经济反弹;其二, 固定资产的投资,基础建设的投资。
李稻葵补充道,房地产已经开始降温,未来二年也会趋于温和状态。他表示,如果没有民间投资的增长,对民营经济的保护,这样的增长并不具备持续性。
至于IMF为何调高了中国增长预期,甚至认为经济数据可能进一步调高。李稻葵在对话环节中提到,IMF过去四年对中国的预期每一次都是过分悲观,而对世界经济的预期每次都是过分乐观。他认为,可能IMF意识到了对中国的评估准确性问题,所以调整了今年的预期。
中诚信董事长毛振华也表达了同样的顾虑,他提出了一个疑问:此轮反弹到底是真反弹还是假反弹?从相关数据,包括PPI等数据来看,工业企业生产确实在回暖,但是依靠投资拉动的经济模式,还是缺乏增长的坚实基础。
提及本次论坛热议的中美首脑会晤的两国经济合作话题,以及中国倡议的中美百日计划,李稻葵认为,主要集中在鼓励进口美国农业产品,鼓励中国企业赴美投资,对美国的基础建设提供资金支持等。而其他经济学家认为,百日计划更多的是一种中美双方在经济层面合作的姿态和表态。是否具有实质意义值得进一步观察。
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