Sentiment in 2011

[just1nmc]

I would sell my kidney to buy $16 bitcoins (if I could do such a thing). I think we might approach $50 again, or even break it. But it won't last very long at all. New ATH in 2014. Unless of course, bad shit happens to the fundamentals. I'm assuming infrastructure/services growth of past several years continues, as well as increased understanding/appreciation from general public around the world.

I'm not one so bold to assume that the fundamentals will remain unchallenged within a new bear market. I don't know if Bitcoin really will emerge as #1 Digital Cash out of this, because it appears that xyz crapcoins are actually gaining in significance, and at least two of them will be trading on MtGox. Then, there is the tx/block scaling issue and there's the "cp in blockchain" thing.

Basically, I have no idea if Bitcoin is MySpace or not. I'll let the market point that out as the Great Dollar Extraction proceeds.

I think crypto-currencies are a long way off if bitcoin doesn't make it, so I'm really hoping it doesn't play out like that. It would to be hard to get people to put money and trust into an idea that already failed.

I don't believe slightly better versions of bitcoin, like the alt coins there are now, are enough to overcome that.

[Melbustus]

I would sell my kidney to buy $16 bitcoins (if I could do such a thing). I think we might approach $50 again, or even break it. But it won't last very long at all. New ATH in 2014. Unless of course, bad shit happens to the fundamentals. I'm assuming infrastructure/services growth of past several years continues, as well as increased understanding/appreciation from general public around the world.

I'm not one so bold to assume that the fundamentals will remain unchallenged within a new bear market. I don't know if Bitcoin really will emerge as #1 Digital Cash out of this, because it appears that xyz crapcoins are actually gaining in significance, and at least two of them will be trading on MtGox. Then, there is the tx/block scaling issue and there's the "cp in blockchain" thing.

Basically, I have no idea if Bitcoin is MySpace or not. I'll let the market point that out as the Great Dollar Extraction proceeds.

I think crypto-currencies are a long way off if bitcoin doesn't make it, so I'm really hoping it doesn't play out like that. It would to be hard to get people to put money and trust into an idea that already failed.

I don't believe slightly better versions of bitcoin, like the alt coins there are now, are enough to overcome that.

Agreed. It would be problematic if an alt that didn't have greatly superior properties succeeded at large scale at the expense of bitcoin. Such success would likely be short-term, as it would erode confidence in non-gov-backed crypto-currencies in general. We just have to trust the market to be rational in aggregate over medium/long timescales.

 That said, if alts that fill different niches succeed, or an alt that IS much better comes along and succeeds, that's cool. It just has to make solid sense.

This really is the primary long-term threat to bitcoin and non-gov-backed crypto-currencies in general. This reminds me of Fred Wilson's blog post from November 2011 where he noted:

"The question remains if the Bitcoin algorithm or some other algorithm (possibly a derivative of the Bitcoin algorithm that deals with some of Bitcoin's weaknesses?) will ultimately win out. That's an important issue that has a lot to do with when this space becomes investable."

Wonder what his thoughts on alts and the investability of the space are now...

[N12]

This time is different than 2011.

This time it's worse.

The Great Dollar Extraction is upon us.

[Frozenlock]

This time is different than 2011.

This time it's worse.

Yeah, I'll need a little more argument than that.

[johnblaze]

Blitz

what do you mean by the Great Dollar Extraction?

[adpinbr]

Here's an interesting question: What will happen once Litecoin begins to trade on MtGox as they recently confirmed and share the same pool of USD that Bitcoin currently enjoys? Sure, they already trade on BTC-E, but that is a trivial amount of volume and attention compared to MtGox. Even trivially modified altcoins have grown immensely popular in a way I would have never imagined. What happens once the media starts to report on them?

I don't think I ever owned any Litecoins, but this will certainly be interesting to watch.

@arepo
I thought much the same near the bottom and I agree, we are at a crossroad. One thing to consider is that I believe the risk in Bitcoins is currently far higher than prices justify, in my view.

Further factors making me more bearish in the mid term: Bitcoin exchanges are being eliminated and MtGox is returning to its monopoly status from years ago. Bitcoin still extremely centralized through mining pools (2 people conspiring can do a 51% attack, and actually have done so during the coin fork), block size limit hindering growth (see SatoshiDice), altcoin popularity rising (LTC soon to be added to MtGox; Ripple emerging as possible alternative).

I'm ready to be proven wrong by the price action. I don't care much missing out here on a measly 20-50% as the immense risk no longer justifies it, I've already played the bottom.

A thought: If you are right and we are at the verge of the next bull market, how much does it really matter if one buys in at 137 at a rather high risk, rather than at 166, 200 or even 266 at a more reduced risk of being wrong?

I acknowledge the possibility, I just think the probability combined with upside is not worth it at the current stage. A good speculator sees that most of the easy money is most probably gone for a while.

it's not even that the fundamentals are improving -- the fundamentals are changing. deflation is kicking in.

Man, what a marketing language/buzzword bullshit, I thought better of you. Perhaps the thing to deflate will be the Bitcoin price.

PS: I hate to do ad hominems, but why are you getting so certain recently + on the verge of spam with the topics? To sell your reports? I remember you were wrong during the whole rally and then barely said anything. It would be too ironic if the same thing happened now.

I think that bitcoin will slowly slide to a fall as non-believers despair easily that the price doesn't go up to fast, and they didn't make their promised easy millions. Personally i would sell all my coins and wait to pick them back up at 70. But I didn't. Cause I invested everything I had in litecoin. I believe the currencies are pegged, but due to the fact that I cannot anticipate when mtgox will begin support I'm just waiting it out. oh and the rise in ltc value covers my btc loses, so I'm basically breaking even

[Frozenlock]

Investing in LTC is like saying "Bitcoin is too safe for my taste... I want more risk/profits". 

[adpinbr]

Investing in LTC is like saying "Bitcoin is too safe for my taste... I want more risk/profits". 

Umm no cause the risks are identical, while the profit are much larger. I say identical because Litecoin is the only viable crypto-currency for long term success at the moment. so if you believe in bit coin why wouldn't you believe in a coin that fixes centralized mining, better wealth distribution, and faster transaction times?

[virtualfaqs]

Investing in LTC is like saying "Bitcoin is too safe for my taste... I want more risk/profits". 

Umm no cause the risks are identical, while the profit are much larger. I say identical because Litecoin is the only viable crypto-currency for long term success at the moment. so if you believe in bit coin why wouldn't you believe in a coin that fixes centralized mining, better wealth distribution, and faster transaction times?

I thought faster transaction times for LTC was a misconception?

[Frozenlock]

Investing in LTC is like saying "Bitcoin is too safe for my taste... I want more risk/profits". 

Umm no cause the risks are identical, while the profit are much larger. I say identical because Litecoin is the only viable crypto-currency for long term success at the moment. so if you believe in bit coin why wouldn't you believe in a coin that fixes centralized mining, better wealth distribution, and faster transaction times?

Because transaction times are a wash.
Reduced to 2 min? Well that's still too long for a coffee transaction.

The same complementary services required to deal with transaction times are necessary for Litecoin.
Except that now you have more blocks to deal with. And you have a higher risk of orphan block.

Oh, also it doesn't fix centralized mining at all. (Which was foreseen anyway, by the way. Bitcoin was never intended to be mined by everyone.)
If litecoins really become valuable, they will also have ASIC.
Remember when Litecoin claimed it was GPU proof? Well we all know how that turned out...

Better wealth distribution?
Ah yes, you mean to litecoins early adopters, rather than bitcoiners.
When I was born, I had 0 dollar and everyone else had plenty.

So Bitcoin/Litecoin are essentially the same, except that Bitcoin has the first mover advantage, plenty of businesses accepting it and a team of developers to improve it.

That's what I mean by more risky.

Best of luck in your investment.

[bitcon]

and also litecoin will end up producing more coins than bitcoin.

[N12]

I am beginning to think there is a chance I was wrong. It would be great.

Either way, I believe we will get a very clear signal at the end of this stagnation.

[Maged]

I am beginning to think there is a chance I was wrong. It would be great.

That means that you weren't wrong. This is why crashes hurt so badly. You end up thinking that you were wrong, end up buying, see the price go down a bit, immediately realize that you weren't wrong, then sell at a loss. If you aren't thinking that you were wrong, that's when you should be worried.

[N12]

Because the Humble Indie Bundle people have finally accepted Bitcoin thanks to Coinbase.

No, just a hunch based on the continued high activity I'm seeing still in the Bitcoin community. I would have expected people to get bored. Same goes for the money on MtGox.

I am beginning to think there is a chance I was wrong. It would be great.

That means that you weren't wrong. This is why crashes hurt so badly. You end up thinking that you were wrong, end up buying, see the price go down a bit, immediately realize that you weren't wrong, then sell at a loss. If you aren't thinking that you were wrong, that's when you should be worried.

Yes, I realize that. I'm only holding a small part. I don't think there is a way to know which direction this market is headed until we see an actual breakout. And even then, we might be simply headed for a huge bull trap.

It's true, the bear market is still a strong possibility. It's only been one month, and so we might be in July 2011 where after weeks of stagnation, the price broke down. I'm going to keep my eyes open and see if if this is the beginning of the "long, slow slide".

[Frozenlock]

You know guys, it would take less time if you just said "I don't know". 

[Melbustus]

...
This reminds me of Fred Wilson's blog post from November 2011 where he noted:

"The question remains if the Bitcoin algorithm or some other algorithm (possibly a derivative of the Bitcoin algorithm that deals with some of Bitcoin's weaknesses?) will ultimately win out. That's an important issue that has a lot to do with when this space becomes investable."

Wonder what his thoughts on alts and the investability of the space are now...

Guess I have my answer now:

"The Most Important Early-Stage Investor Of The Last 10 Years Just Made A Huge Bet On Bitcoin" http://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-years-twitter-zynga-investor-121935658.html

[N12]

This price behaviour is certainly reminiscent of July 2011 now.

[Frozenlock]

You mean the nothing's-happening part?

Next step is off-a-cliff, right?

[smoothie]

This price behaviour is certainly reminiscent of July 2011 now.

Yeah reminds me of that time too.

But is it different this time?

I think there are some differences in development/infrastructure.

Just that I still think the price can dip below $100.

I'm looking at it relatively that $100 is a psychological barrier just like $10 was.

[N12]

Is this the beginning of The Great Dollar Extraction? If the Dollars drain out of the system via international wires and people deposit more reluctantly than they used to (and of course, they will not be able to any more via Dwolla), it might very well be.

Still awaiting confirmation on the charts, however.