Sentiment in 2011

[N12]

Miners' margin profits have made a new low due to the recent difficulty adjustment: http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin?timespan=500days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

As this continues, it will take longer and longer to pay off an ASIC and miners will be forced to liquidate a larger perecentage of the 3600 daily BTC to cover their expenses.

Miners speculatively holding Bitcoins is not the usual state of things. They are a business, and soon they will have extremely tight margins like in the past. I give it 1 or 2 more doublings of the difficulty.

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[RationalSpeculator]

Miners' margin profits have made a new low due to the recent difficulty adjustment: http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin?timespan=500days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

As this continues, it will take longer and longer to pay off an ASIC and miners will be forced to liquidate a larger perecentage of the 3600 daily BTC to cover their expenses.

Miners speculatively holding Bitcoins is not the usual state of things. They are a business, and soon they will have extremely tight margins like in the past. I give it 1 or 2 more doublings of the difficulty.

Interesting, thanks for sharing.

[julius]

Miners' margin profits have made a new low due to the recent difficulty adjustment: http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin?timespan=500days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

As this continues, it will take longer and longer to pay off an ASIC and miners will be forced to liquidate a larger perecentage of the 3600 daily BTC to cover their expenses.

Miners speculatively holding Bitcoins is not the usual state of things. They are a business, and soon they will have extremely tight margins like in the past. I give it 1 or 2 more doublings of the difficulty.

Any ideas what is the cause of Dec'12 sudden drop ? Right after that drop, the 2013 rally began. I wonder if there is a relation between those two events and whether this could happen again now.

[BitPirate]

Miners' margin profits have made a new low due to the recent difficulty adjustment: http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin?timespan=500days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

As this continues, it will take longer and longer to pay off an ASIC and miners will be forced to liquidate a larger perecentage of the 3600 daily BTC to cover their expenses.

Miners speculatively holding Bitcoins is not the usual state of things. They are a business, and soon they will have extremely tight margins like in the past. I give it 1 or 2 more doublings of the difficulty.

Your statement is entirely contradictory: "They don't normally hold" and "They will sell more now". You can't have it both ways. I suggest you re-examine your logic/biases to ensure your thought process is at least internally consistent.

Selling cheap is a race to the bottom that puts you out of business. If businesses are not making a profit selling cheap... they will sell at a higher price, or hold until the price rises.

TBH, this is just another proof point that we are oversold.

[N12]

Miners' margin profits have made a new low due to the recent difficulty adjustment: http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin?timespan=500days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

As this continues, it will take longer and longer to pay off an ASIC and miners will be forced to liquidate a larger perecentage of the 3600 daily BTC to cover their expenses.

Miners speculatively holding Bitcoins is not the usual state of things. They are a business, and soon they will have extremely tight margins like in the past. I give it 1 or 2 more doublings of the difficulty.

Your statement is entirely contradictory: "They don't normally hold" and "They will sell more now". You can't have it both ways. I suggest you re-examine your logic/biases to ensure your thought process is at least internally consistent.

Selling cheap is a race to the bottom that puts you out of business. If businesses are not making a profit selling cheap... they will sell at a higher price, or hold until the price rises.

TBH, this is just another proof point that we are oversold.

Where is the contradiction? When miners have huge profit margins, they can begin speculating with those. Normally, profit margins are not huge, but currently they still are.

"Selling cheap" or "selling expensively" is nothing of concern for a miner. Their job is to sell periodically to cover their bills and pocket a small profit, they aren't speculators.

I'm describing just this progression.

[BitPirate]

Miners' margin profits have made a new low due to the recent difficulty adjustment: http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin?timespan=500days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

As this continues, it will take longer and longer to pay off an ASIC and miners will be forced to liquidate a larger perecentage of the 3600 daily BTC to cover their expenses.

Miners speculatively holding Bitcoins is not the usual state of things. They are a business, and soon they will have extremely tight margins like in the past. I give it 1 or 2 more doublings of the difficulty.

Your statement is entirely contradictory: "They don't normally hold" and "They will sell more now". You can't have it both ways. I suggest you re-examine your logic/biases to ensure your thought process is at least internally consistent.

Selling cheap is a race to the bottom that puts you out of business. If businesses are not making a profit selling cheap... they will sell at a higher price, or hold until the price rises.

TBH, this is just another proof point that we are oversold.

Where is the contradiction? When miners have huge profit margins, they can begin speculating with those. Normally, profit margins are not huge, but currently they still are.

"Selling cheap" or "selling expensively" is nothing of concern for a miner. Their job is to sell periodically to cover their bills and pocket a small profit, they aren't speculators.

I'm describing just this progression.

Hmm I see, sorry I misinterpreted "Miners speculatively holding Bitcoins is not the usual state of things." as "they are not holding now or normally".

Regardless, I still think your logic is off. It is very much a seller's business to set the price. It is every bit their concern, as it is for any business, to set a fair price for the commodity they are selling. If you're not making money selling at your current price, and have fixed and/or increasing costs, "selling more" at the current price is not the solution. That just digs your grave faster. You would do better to switch your rigs off and wait.

Furthermore, I'd also venture that the average ASIC owner CAN afford to pay their bills... It would be a pretty foolhardy investment to mine BTC if you are struggling to make ends meet. I don't doubt that some are mining on the breadline, but I think extrapolating this persona to the overall miner population is a bit fanciful.

Finally, there has been increased supply lately with ASICS coming online prior to the difficulty increase. This will now decrease somewhat.

[betaknight]

Breakout.

I concede this is going differently than 2011.

Seems that it has only taken a different initial path in order to fool some of us.

I'm fortunate enough to have actually come out with profits since I posted this as I reversed my position early at minimal loss and had a nice daytrading move immediately after (a week ago). Back to holding the Bernanke Bux until we see <50, probably.

We broke horizontal support levels of 103 and 97 recently. Next one would be 79. I predict that after a possible initial bounce beyond $100, we will be trading in the double digits for a long time.

The Great Dollar Extraction is ON.

Still, I don't see the price crashing as low as in 2011... In 2013 terms, that means having a bottom of $16ish (2/32 - 16/266). I would be surprised if we go below $50, and very very puzzled if we go below $30.

If the crash isn't painful, it likely hasn't completed. Take a look at sentiment today: the price that people are saying would be painful, "the end of Bitcoin", and that there's no way that we'll go below is about $20. Keep this in the back of your mind.

That being said, getting in at around $50 with a good amount (but not all) of your Bitcoin investment funds is a good idea long-term. Save a small amount for the $20 level, but don't depend on it happening.

The pain of a crash is relative to where one starts from. Someone who bought at  $250 is definitely feeling the pain.

[adpinbr]

I think its an all or nothing kind of issue. As in either bitcoin is worth a lot or nothing at all. So the real issue here is game theory, take for example the prisoners dilemma. We see a parallel between the prisoners dilemma and the bitcoin dilemma. Where the best outcome is for bitcoin to go up, and it is a possible outcome. if no one sells bitcoin the value will rise, but then the question is since people will sell, shouldn't you be the first to do it? (the same does not apply to the stock market as bitcoins added utility does not come from its ability to produce revenue, rather the utility is derived from faith)

[adpinbr]

In other words we would all be better off if no one sold, but we are all to greedy and self centered to realize it. STOP SELLING!!!!
I propose people disclose their public key, that way we can monitor selling during critical periods. We could use that to form a union of some sort, and control the price fluctuation. The question is why join a union when you are self centered and here for profit rather than idealogical belief? Well the reason is cause you are here for more than a small quick buck in a month and want to make a big quick buck in 3 years. Almost everyone understands that the price now is inflated by speculation, but if we can stabilize the price we would get more merchant adoption, increased merchant adoption=higher price.

[Frozenlock]

So... price collusion?

You are proposing something that is illegal, highly immoral and completely disruptive to the market to boost your personal wealth.

But the sellers are all to greedy and self centered.

Yeah, right... 

[Melbustus]

...Almost everyone understands that the price now is inflated by speculation...

That doesn't mean anything. Because bitcoin serves a store-of-value function, if it's successful at all, it'll always trade for more than is necessary to support the current transaction volume.

[N12]

If the price doesn't regain and maintain triple digits, I would see the bear market as confirmed.

[derpinheimer]

If the price doesn't regain and maintain triple digits, I would see the bear market as confirmed.

priced must go up quickly, i have to 15k to unload tonite but only if somebody make me wall to eat 


/jaroslaw impersonation

[Rampion]

If the price doesn't regain and maintain triple digits, I would see the bear market as confirmed.

The bear is on since the April crash, which was deeper and faster than the one we had in 2011.

On the contrary, it looks like this time the bear will last longer. In 2011 we had 5 months of slow decline prior to the bottom. The "bitcoin is a ponzi" sentiment spread quite quickly, it didn't take so long for the people to unload. Now we are having more traps, the money is taking longer to vanish, we are even having some new investors here and there. But the bear is on.

In 2011, the sentiment was "hacks&ponzis"

In 2013, the sentiment will be "regulation&money stranded at Gox"

[N12]

Don't forget the scamcoins.

This time it's different. This time it's worse.

[N12]

You wouldn't listen.

[chufchuf]

You wouldn't listen.

Since when do XRumer spammers talk to themselves?

[Frozenlock]

If the price doesn't regain and maintain triple digits, I would see the bear market as confirmed.

The bear is on since the April crash, which was deeper and faster than the one we had in 2011.

I don't see it like this.
For a looooong time the outcome of this crash was uncertain.
It looked like the mother of all consolidation triangle.

Unless I'm mistaken, even Blitz was kinda confused. 

[freedomno1]

Everything accelerating in bitcoin
Legal Revenue Providers Support Structures Development Advertising PR News
My duration is a lot shorter as a result  I'll go with December as an interesting month  
Even Boldly October
Just so I can say
Wake me up when September ends

[tokeweed]

Bitcoins are hotter than ever. I don't think what happened in 2011 can really apply to what's going on now.

k, LOL!