[Group Buy#2] Avalon ASICs CHIPS! 1 chip = .078BTC = 282Mhash!

[kong2029]

I'm in!

Sent 32.844 BTC for 400 chips.

[wrenchmonkey]

Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0

That would be one AWESOME rig to have.

I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't. 

[kong2029]

Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0

That would be one AWESOME rig to have.

I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't. 

I was going to do 100 chips but figured my kids can do without new shoes this year and will have no choice but to forgive me when I'm old.  I'm discounting present rates by 75-90% and hoping we're all live by July.  Now hopefully we can get someone to build and ship boards quickly!

[wrenchmonkey]

Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0

That would be one AWESOME rig to have.

I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't. 

I was going to do 100 chips but figured my kids can do without new shoes this year and will have no choice but to forgive me when I'm old.  I'm discounting present rates by 75-90% and hoping we're all live by July.  Now hopefully we can get someone to build and ship boards quickly!

It's a gamble, to be sure. I would've probabaly gone bigger myself, but there's no easy way for me to buy bitcoin in any quantity. Bitinstant won't let me transfer more than $500/day (and of course they take $25 every time I do that). I don't have any bitcoin reserves to draw from, and my timing was terrible (had to buy at $140+ a few days, instead of the $90-$115 of the past couple of days (damn you, lady luck!)

If I see $50 BTC, any time soon, I'll be buying up a great deal of it though!

[Ataxx]

More importantly guys, the spreadsheet hasn't really budged. We need to get others to participate. I'm in for 126BTC I'll probably go in for a total of 200. If we don't make any serious traction between now and next week. This group BUY is as good as dead.

[wrenchmonkey]

More importantly guys, the spreadsheet hasn't really budged. We need to get others to participate. I'm in for 126BTC I'll probably go in for a total of 200. If we don't make any serious traction between now and next week. This group BUY is as good as dead.

Agreed, 1000%. I think that the fact that there are tons of different group buys (for different regions, etc) is distracting for a lot of people. It was easy gaining traction on the first one, but after they've started a separate one in every country in the UN (not literally, but yeah), those numbers are getting diluted FAST. The longer this thing goes on, the less likely it is to fund. And every day or week that we wait to fill this buy, the further behind it puts us.

[Ataxx]

Where are we now on this Ranging? I just hope this BUY hasn't stalled.

[ecliptic]

Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0

That would be one AWESOME rig to have.

I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't. 

Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate.  Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down

[wrenchmonkey]

Where are we now on this Ranging? I just hope this BUY hasn't stalled.

It appears to be stalling. We're at 186ish of PAID funds, of a needed 800-something-ish needed, with another 48ish-to-160ish currently pledged (depending if ATAXX ups his order to a full 200, or what have you... Gotta get this movin'!

[wrenchmonkey]

Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0

That would be one AWESOME rig to have.

I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.  

Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate.  Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down

Yes, understood. That's why I specified "at current difficulty" I did forget to change the exchange rate to current exchange though.

At any rate, I think anybody who has seriously run the numbers with the intent of buying these chips knows that we're looking at a difficulty of 40-80million by the time we all get up and running.

Even so, if you presume a difficulty of 80Million, and an exchange rate of $90/BTC, 500 chips still generates $2500/month. I'm guessing that both those numbers are on the upper end of 'bad-case' scenario, and we're probabaly more likely to jump in at about 40Million when these things start coming online, which should give a window to recover initial investment costs relatively quickly.

But time is of the essence. Realistically, if we don't fund this thing by this time next week, we're DOA. So hope for some more big investors, or that BTC temporarily drops to $10, and I'll be in for 48BTC per day until it funds.

[kong2029]

Spreadsheet indicates we're about 40% there.  We need to get the word out and lock this up fast!

[Ataxx]

What spreadsheet are you referring to? I'm seeing only 23.5% of the total.

Please post the link that you're referring to. Am I looking at the wrong one?

[ragingazn628]

I'm in!

Sent 32.844 BTC for 400 chips.

confirmed thanks!

[kong2029]

What spreadsheet are you referring to? I'm seeing only 23.5% of the total.

Please post the link that you're referring to. Am I looking at the wrong one?

I'm looking at the one on the front page of this thread.  I eyeballed 327 btc including committed but not paid and what I just sent.  I assume that as we get closer to closing the full amount that either 1) commitments are followed through or 2) last minute stragglers take up the slack.  

[ryepdx]

Ragingazn, how's the PCB design coming?

[tempestb]

I would order chips if there was an actual board that they came with, or someone could assemble.  I realize that someone is going to make them, but what is the cost going to be, the number of chips it will support, and various other requirements?  I'm also not sure I trust someone who gets thousands of chips to put on boards to get them done in a timely manner.  It seems like the chips would be cool to get but there are a lot of unknowns at the moment. 

[ecliptic]

Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0

That would be one AWESOME rig to have.

I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.  

Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate.  Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down

Yes, understood. That's why I specified "at current difficulty" I did forget to change the exchange rate to current exchange though.

At any rate, I think anybody who has seriously run the numbers with the intent of buying these chips knows that we're looking at a difficulty of 40-80million by the time we all get up and running.

Even so, if you presume a difficulty of 80Million, and an exchange rate of $90/BTC, 500 chips still generates $2500/month. I'm guessing that both those numbers are on the upper end of 'bad-case' scenario, and we're probabaly more likely to jump in at about 40Million when these things start coming online, which should give a window to recover initial investment costs relatively quickly.

But time is of the essence. Realistically, if we don't fund this thing by this time next week, we're DOA. So hope for some more big investors, or that BTC temporarily drops to $10, and I'll be in for 48BTC per day until it funds.

Instead of "at current difficulty" you might as well say "In fantasy land"

[steamboat]

Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0

That would be one AWESOME rig to have.

I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.  

Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate.  Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down

Yes, understood. That's why I specified "at current difficulty" I did forget to change the exchange rate to current exchange though.

At any rate, I think anybody who has seriously run the numbers with the intent of buying these chips knows that we're looking at a difficulty of 40-80million by the time we all get up and running.

Even so, if you presume a difficulty of 80Million, and an exchange rate of $90/BTC, 500 chips still generates $2500/month. I'm guessing that both those numbers are on the upper end of 'bad-case' scenario, and we're probabaly more likely to jump in at about 40Million when these things start coming online, which should give a window to recover initial investment costs relatively quickly.

But time is of the essence. Realistically, if we don't fund this thing by this time next week, we're DOA. So hope for some more big investors, or that BTC temporarily drops to $10, and I'll be in for 48BTC per day until it funds.

The best estimates have difficulty @ ~65-70 mil by the end of July (roughly 3 months). If the chips do arrive in 10 weeks, and you've managed to get fab and testing done and it only takes you 2 weeks for assembly and shipping then starting your estimates from there isn't horrible.

If a batch costs 50/50 chips to board, you're looking at BTC1560 initial outlay (minus support gear, ie host, power supplies, etc). If it's as efficient as Avalons you're lookin @ about 28.2 kw/h to operate.
Assuming a 25% Network Hashrate Increase per difficulty, with electric costing you $.115 you're looking at about a 7 months for complete BTC principal repayment, not including cost of electricity ($13,664). If you were to count electricity, you would be $8,402 short when after 8.4 months difficulty became so high you paid more for electricity per time period than you received in coin (assuming $105 exchange rate).

Something to note however, Give the above is accurate:
the network hashrate would be 19,317TH/s (27,895% increase from what it is now)
Difficulty would be 2,698,676,748 (26,103% increase from what it is now)

So the question is, do you think 19,247TH/s worth of gear is going to be deployed between now and Jan '14?

*Disclaimer: I purchased a batch of chips.

[ecliptic]

Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0

That would be one AWESOME rig to have.

I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.  

Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate.  Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down

Yes, understood. That's why I specified "at current difficulty" I did forget to change the exchange rate to current exchange though.

At any rate, I think anybody who has seriously run the numbers with the intent of buying these chips knows that we're looking at a difficulty of 40-80million by the time we all get up and running.

Even so, if you presume a difficulty of 80Million, and an exchange rate of $90/BTC, 500 chips still generates $2500/month. I'm guessing that both those numbers are on the upper end of 'bad-case' scenario, and we're probabaly more likely to jump in at about 40Million when these things start coming online, which should give a window to recover initial investment costs relatively quickly.

But time is of the essence. Realistically, if we don't fund this thing by this time next week, we're DOA. So hope for some more big investors, or that BTC temporarily drops to $10, and I'll be in for 48BTC per day until it funds.

The best estimates have difficulty @ ~65-70 mil by the end of July (roughly 3 months). If the chips do arrive in 10 weeks, and you've managed to get fab and testing done and it only takes you 2 weeks for assembly and shipping then starting your estimates from there isn't horrible.

If a batch costs 50/50 chips to board, you're looking at BTC1560 initial outlay (minus support gear, ie host, power supplies, etc). If it's as efficient as Avalons you're lookin @ about 28.2 kw/h to operate.
Assuming a 25% Network Hashrate Increase per difficulty, with electric costing you $.115 you're looking at about a 7 months for complete BTC principal repayment, not including cost of electricity ($13,664). If you were to count electricity, you would be $8,402 short when after 8.4 months difficulty became so high you paid more for electricity per time period than you received in coin (assuming $105 exchange rate).

Something to note however, Give the above is accurate:
the network hashrate would be 19,317TH/s (27,895% increase from what it is now)
Difficulty would be 2,698,676,748 (26,103% increase from what it is now)

So the question is, do you think 19,247TH/s worth of gear is going to be deployed between now and Jan '14?

*Disclaimer: I purchased a batch of chips.

do you have a source for those ~70 Million difficulty at the end of july quotes?

[steamboat]

do you have a source for those ~70 Million difficulty at the end of july quotes?

Why yes, yes I do

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/04/914-asic-earnings-23-april-2013.html
Organofcorti is a highly reputable member of the community who has been posting statistics about the network and charts on hash rates for a long long time. You can find his thread here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77000.0

He's very helpful (helped me solve a spreadsheet issue just yesterday) and knows his stuff.

If you get anything from his work, I suggest tipping him, as he provides this valuable service free of charge. His address can be found in his signature. (I'm not going to post it, and you should never send coin to an unconfirmed address)

I really like your style ecliptic. I'm very happy new members are taking the time to intelligently question things instead of spamming,scamming,and blindly throwing away money